***Iran [Military Action Thread]***[See Staff Note in OP]

2,163,639 Views | 9910 Replies | Last: 1 hr ago by flown-the-coop
YouBet
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AG
Logos Stick said:











two hours later.... (spongebob)

Iran says that Trump is FOS!


At this point, I can't decide if Trump really has gone insane and lost his mind, or if Iran's propaganda is so utterly absurd that he's just flat out ignoring any public statement they put out and is only going by what they say behind closed doors.

We do know Iran engages in two different channels of communications - one for public consumption to save face and the real one in private, but this whole thing has gotten to ludicrous levels of back and forth.

Trump needs to follow his own advice at this point and STFU at a minimum. Either wait them out on the blockade in silence, bomb them, or walk away and wait for everyone to develop alternate oil delivery paths.
Vox Clamantis
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YouBet said:

Logos Stick said:











two hours later.... (spongebob)

Iran says that Trump is FOS!


At this point, I can't decide if Trump really has gone insane and lost his mind, or if Iran's propaganda is so utterly absurd that he's just flat out ignoring any public statement they put out and is only going by what they say behind closed doors.

We do know Iran engages in two different channels of communications - one for public consumption to save face and the real one in private, but this whole thing has gotten to ludicrous levels of back and forth.

Trump needs to follow his own advice at this point and STFU at a minimum.
Either wait them out on the blockade in silence, bomb them, or walk away and wait for everyone to develop alternate oil delivery paths.


Yeah, the dissonance is getting to be pretty absurd. We're miles past George W Bush's "mission accomplished" faux pas.

It seems like Trump has always been super popular with the troops, but would not blame them for thinking "does this guy have any idea what he's doing right now?"
agent-maroon
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Do we really think Trump believes any of this crap he's posting or is he running some kind of psyops game? I don't think he's stupid or crazy (at this point anyways). My theory is that he's just saying these things to prompt responses from the many factions claiming to represent Iran while he's waiting out the results on the blockade. Might be some operational intelligence value in that, but it certainly seems like it would be better to just STFU and let them degrade from the blockade.
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LMCane
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but as long as the Ayatollah pinky swears that the Islamic Republic will not build a nuclear weapon then all is good.

even though the Islamic Republic for DECADES has claimed they were not building a nuclear bomb.

rgag12
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LMCane said:

but as long as the Ayatollah pinky swears that the Islamic Republic will not build a nuclear weapon then all is good.

even though the Islamic Republic for DECADES has claimed they were not building a nuclear bomb.




They won't adhere to any promise they make on either the nuclear or SoH front. International agencies and groups would have to be put in place to physically watch that both things are occurring. Iran will never allow this, and that's why an agreement hasn't been reached.

At this point the best possible route is to just let them economically bleed out for months and let the country descend into chaos. We might get another Yemen or we might get a cooperative country, but at least there's a chance. Right now we know with 100% certainty as soon as we lift the blockade and a "deal" is signed that Iran will not let anyone watch their nuclear activity and they'll start charging SoH tolls.
T dizl televizl
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JFABNRGR said:

LMCane said:

It's great that Trump and Rubio have called the war off because Iran wants a deal so badly.

meanwhile, this is Iran wanting a deal so badly:




and 69 injuries.


Nice
MJ20/20
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It's pretty clear that Trump has pre determined that he is not going to reengage Iran on any significant scale. Now he is grasping for a positive shred of a win to ride off into the sunset on (pinky swear).

No regime change aka IRGC remaining intact, is a poor strategic approach to peace in the region.
Ag83
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Timberwolf said:

My thoughts are also with those thousands of civilian sailors and captains stranded motionless and baking in the sun on their own ship for months on end. I'd lose my be mind probably. How long does one survive in those conditions? I haven't seen anything reported on this pretty significant disaster

My understanding is that they have been able to get crew rotations going so you don't have the same people stuck indefinitely. Bigger concern is with the ships themselves.
Rockdoc
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No matter what they say, no matter what they do or what they sign, they are ideologically locked in. We can bomb them until nothing is left and they will keep trying. The rest of the world won't really get involved until Iran gets a nuke somehow and uses it on one of their neighbors. Then it won't be just our problem. So Trump, do what you're going to do and get it over with.
MouthBQ98
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Solution: free for all on Iran. Next 90 days. Anyone who want to get in some shots or take some territory, have it. USA will bring the bombs, but you're on your own for planes and aviation fuel.

See what Iran thinks about that?
BlackGold
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You can't just be somewhat willing to fight a war. You have to be all-in or the results are going to be catastrophic.

Iran is all-in and fighting for their survival, the US is just running its mouth via Trump on social media. This has embarrassment for the US written all over it. Should have just told Bibi no at the onset, if we weren't going to fully commit.

Looks like we're letting IRGC remain in power, but the straight is closed. Now Iran has a roadmap to deal with being attacked in the future. What was the point of this?
lb3
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MJ20/20 said:

It's pretty clear that Trump has pre determined that he is not going to reengage Iran on any significant scale. Now he is grasping for a positive shred of a win to ride off into the sunset on (pinky swear).

No regime change aka IRGC remaining intact, is a poor strategic approach to peace in the region.
Regime change would be a nice outcome but it was never the goal. I suspect the blockade will remain in effect until after the World Cup or even the elections this fall.

Iran grows weaker by the day so there is no need to rush.
A_Gang_Ag_06
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Vox Clamantis said:

YouBet said:

Logos Stick said:




Agree with him STFU at this point. It would be a better longterm strategy to squeeze Iran. If we go silent while maintaining the blockade the media will lose interest in two weeks and move on to the next thing. Iran needs the media to pressure Trump. The minute they lose the media, Iran is on the clock because we can maintain the blockade indefinitely. They'll have to come to the negotiating table eventually or starve.






two hours later.... (spongebob)

Iran says that Trump is FOS!


At this point, I can't decide if Trump really has gone insane and lost his mind, or if Iran's propaganda is so utterly absurd that he's just flat out ignoring any public statement they put out and is only going by what they say behind closed doors.

We do know Iran engages in two different channels of communications - one for public consumption to save face and the real one in private, but this whole thing has gotten to ludicrous levels of back and forth.

Trump needs to follow his own advice at this point and STFU at a minimum.
Either wait them out on the blockade in silence, bomb them, or walk away and wait for everyone to develop alternate oil delivery paths.


Yeah, the dissonance is getting to be pretty absurd. We're miles past George W Bush's "mission accomplished" faux pas.

It seems like Trump has always been super popular with the troops, but would not blame them for thinking "does this guy have any idea what he's doing right now?"
Logos Stick
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YouBet said:

Logos Stick said:











two hours later.... (spongebob)

Iran says that Trump is FOS!


At this point, I can't decide if Trump really has gone insane and lost his mind, or if Iran's propaganda is so utterly absurd that he's just flat out ignoring any public statement they put out and is only going by what they say behind closed doors.

We do know Iran engages in two different channels of communications - one for public consumption to save face and the real one in private, but this whole thing has gotten to ludicrous levels of back and forth.

Trump needs to follow his own advice at this point and STFU at a minimum. Either wait them out on the blockade in silence, bomb them, or walk away and wait for everyone to develop alternate oil delivery paths.



He can't keep his mouth shut. Is he losing it?
Street Fighter
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BlackGold said:

You can't just be somewhat willing to fight a war. You have to be all-in or the results are going to be catastrophic.

Iran is all-in and fighting for their survival, the US is just running its mouth via Trump on social media. This has embarrassment for the US written all over it. Should have just told Bibi no at the onset, if we weren't going to fully commit.

Looks like we're letting IRGC remain in power, but the straight is closed. Now Iran has a roadmap to deal with being attacked in the future. What was the point of this?

Sure seems like it was all for nothing.
K2-HMFIC
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lb3 said:

MJ20/20 said:

It's pretty clear that Trump has pre determined that he is not going to reengage Iran on any significant scale. Now he is grasping for a positive shred of a win to ride off into the sunset on (pinky swear).

No regime change aka IRGC remaining intact, is a poor strategic approach to peace in the region.
Regime change would be a nice outcome but it was never the goal. I suspect the blockade will remain in effect until after the World Cup or even the elections this fall.

Iran grows weaker by the day so there is no need to rush.



Iran holds the cards right now…the longer they keep the straits closed…the more leverage they gain over POTUS.
Rockdoc
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Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.
harge57
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K2-HMFIC said:

lb3 said:

MJ20/20 said:

It's pretty clear that Trump has pre determined that he is not going to reengage Iran on any significant scale. Now he is grasping for a positive shred of a win to ride off into the sunset on (pinky swear).

No regime change aka IRGC remaining intact, is a poor strategic approach to peace in the region.
Regime change would be a nice outcome but it was never the goal. I suspect the blockade will remain in effect until after the World Cup or even the elections this fall.

Iran grows weaker by the day so there is no need to rush.



Iran holds the cards right now…the longer they keep the straits closed…the more leverage they gain over POTUS.


Lol. No.
Vox Clamantis
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Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.
Rockdoc
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Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

Given the straits current situation, who is being harmed more strategically and economically? Us or Iran?
TexAg1987
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Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

They have some control.

If they were the only ones with control, their ships would be able to pass without getting a hellfire missile implanted in the engine room.
K2-HMFIC
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Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.


In this case, that's a distinction without a difference.

Because…the longer they are closed the more pressure that places on POTUS.
Rockdoc
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K2-HMFIC said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.


In this case, that's a distinction without a difference.

Because…the longer they are closed the more pressure that places on POTUS.

Don't think so. Iran economically is weakening by the day. Trump is bombastic, but he has some pretty good advisors.
Vox Clamantis
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Rockdoc said:

Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

Given the straits current situation, who is being harmed more strategically and economically? Us or Iran?

It doesn't matter, what matters is who is able to hurt more. Look at the US in Vietnam, when you're fighting 3rd world countries, who don't care how many of their citizens die, you can't look at it from a "us vs them" point of view.

We've killed almost every senior leader in Iran, and they're still giving us the finger. They don't care if we kill them.
Vox Clamantis
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TexAg1987 said:

Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

They have some control.

If they were the only ones with control, their ships would be able to pass without getting a hellfire missile implanted in the engine room.


Their goal is to close the strait, ours is to have the Strait open. The strait is effectively closed, you are correct in that Iran does not have agency over who or what goes through the Strait, BUT they are enforcing their objective.
Rockdoc
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Absolutely they don't care if we kill them. There is an endless line of ideological nutjobs waiting to step forward.
K2-HMFIC
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Rockdoc said:

K2-HMFIC said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.


In this case, that's a distinction without a difference.

Because…the longer they are closed the more pressure that places on POTUS.

Don't think so. Iran economically is weakening by the day. Trump is bombastic, but he has some pretty good advisors.



Economic pressure takes a long damn time…look at Russia…those sanctions are just now starting to bite and we're four years in.
javajaws
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Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

Don't be obtuse. "Control" in the sense we are talking about is: "Is commercial traffic free to navigate the strait?"

That answer is a clear and definitive "No". Obviously we control Iran friendly traffic and Iran controls everybody else. And really since nobody cares about Iran's well being or goods going in or out of there other than us...saying that Iran controls the strait is colloquially correct.
Rockdoc
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javajaws said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

Don't be obtuse. "Control" in the sense we are talking about is: "Is commercial traffic free to navigate the strait?"

That answer is a clear and definitive "No". Obviously we control Iran friendly traffic and Iran controls everybody else. And really since nobody cares about Iran's well being or goods going in or out of there other than us...saying that Iran controls the strait is colloquially correct.

I'm not being obtuse. We're playing a time game with Iran. Let's see what happens.
Flavius Agximus
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twelve12twelve
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Rockdoc said:

javajaws said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

Don't be obtuse. "Control" in the sense we are talking about is: "Is commercial traffic free to navigate the strait?"

That answer is a clear and definitive "No". Obviously we control Iran friendly traffic and Iran controls everybody else. And really since nobody cares about Iran's well being or goods going in or out of there other than us...saying that Iran controls the strait is colloquially correct.

I'm not being obtuse. We're playing a time game with Iran. Let's see what happens.

Have fun with that. Lol
LMCane
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Ag83 said:

Timberwolf said:

My thoughts are also with those thousands of civilian sailors and captains stranded motionless and baking in the sun on their own ship for months on end. I'd lose my be mind probably. How long does one survive in those conditions? I haven't seen anything reported on this pretty significant disaster

My understanding is that they have been able to get crew rotations going so you don't have the same people stuck indefinitely. Bigger concern is with the ships themselves.


a question that I thought of last night when looking at maps of the Gulf

WHY ARE THERE STILL SHIPS in the Indian Ocean waiting to get INTO the Gulf of Arabia?!?

unless we are secretly escorting ships- which we hopefully are doing

even if they get INTO the Gulf- how will they then get out?!

why aren't they heading to other destinations to load/unload?!
LMCane
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Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

You do realize there are no ships unloading or loading in IRANIAN PORTS and no Iranian ships moving out of the Gulf right?

so based on your logic- the USA controls the Strait.
Ogre09
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AG
Why can't we jailbreak the ships that are trapped in there? Not worth it to have them all make a break for it while we provide protection?
Vox Clamantis
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LMCane said:

Vox Clamantis said:

Rockdoc said:

Iran doesn't control the strait anymore than we do.

They absolutely control the strait. If they didn't, there would be container ships passing as per the usual.

You do realize there are no ships unloading or loading in IRANIAN PORTS and no Iranian ships moving out of the Gulf right?

so based on your logic- the USA controls the Strait.


Yes, the goal of the USA is to have the Strait opened, the goal of Iran is to have the Strait closed, yes of course they'd rather have the Strait closed to everyone BUT themselves, but that's not realistic, so they're content with closing the Strait.

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