Iran just said that Strait is closed until peace deal is made

The Fall Guy said:

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Iran just said that Strait is closed until peace deal is made

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Cool. If there is no peace deal yet, in the words of Ronald Reagan "we begin bombing in 15 minutes".

The Fall Guy said:

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Iran just said that Strait is closed until peace deal is made

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Trump needs to say there will be no negotiations as long as the strait is closed.

We need to remind them of what "not peace" looks like so they are properly incentivized to want peace enough to give up important things to get it.

Has the Trump administration responded to this latest development?

Trying to ascertain if this is another true escalation or rogue forces acting a fool…

Checkmate

BREAKING: The US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. The report comes just hours after Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again

2. This move is intended to "step up…

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 18, 2026

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BREAKING: The US military is preparing to board Iran-linked oil tankers and seize commercial ships in international waters, per WSJ.

Details include:

1. The report comes just hours after Iran has declared the Strait of Hormuz closed again

2. This move is intended to "step up economic pressure" on Iran to force them to reopen Hormuz

3. The US says its blockade "will actively pursue any Iranian-flagged vessel or any vessel attempting to provide material support to Iran"

4. Iran has been exporting over 2 million barrels of oil per day throughout the war which are now at risk

The Strait of Hormuz remains in contention.

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FireAg said:

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Has the Trump administration responded to this latest development?

Trying to ascertain if this is another true escalation or rogue forces acting a fool…

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BREAKING: President Trump responds to Iran shutting down the Strait of Hormuz again:

"Iran cannot blackmail us" with Strait of Hormuz threats, he says.

Trump says he will have "some information by end of day."

— The Kobeissi Letter (@KobeissiLetter) April 18, 2026

Iran making friends everywhere.

India is furious with Iran after IRGC gunboats fired on the Indian-flagged oil tanker The Sanmar Harald today as it was passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

The ship was trying to transport Iraqi oil to India.

India has summoned the Iranian Ambassador to protest pic.twitter.com/gvMhMIbGsz

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) April 18, 2026

Yep, they may have poked the wrong 'tiger'. The Indian Navy is said to be very competent, with a real presence in the Arabian Sea and a base on Oman. Also, India is currently the home of the world's largest refinery- interrupting their supply chain is not wise. Not too fond of Islam either.

Away boarding party

What a dumb move. Load up the JASSMs JSOWs and JDAMs on the Buffs and go to town on these clowns!

h/t @TankerTrackers for providing the radio recording, and @MarineTraffic for the AIS data.https://t.co/xZa6QfEBFq

— OSINTtechnical (@Osinttechnical) April 18, 2026

That sounds like an act of war against India.

Maybe they'll get involved now, too.

Iran, I think, has a bunch of sub 80 IQ strategists.

What a dumb move

Iran does not want to mess with India. They are the second largest military in the world. They have a modern air force and navy.

fc2112 said:

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Iran does not want to mess with India. They are the second largest military in the world. They have a modern air force and navy.

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And nukes.

4 said:

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That sounds like an act of war against India.

Maybe they'll get involved now, too.

Iran, I think, has a bunch of sub 80 IQ strategists.

What a dumb move

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Probably just a bunch of rogue dummies IMO.

I hope the insane maniacs in the IRGC do surrender and agree to an agreement

but this expert lays out a pretty convincing case about what will happen if they do not.

Lord grant POTUS Trump the strength to carry it out!

First observation: there will be no deal. The ceasefire will end & the war will re-commence.

Second observation: the US has been flooding the Theater with reinforcements, resupplies & performing maintenance on air assets non-stop, & re-arming warships. The force is ready & its… pic.twitter.com/7IoimAHGFX

— Harold__Finch (@HaroldWren22) April 18, 2026

Similar vein...
I watched a YouTube video about the first Iraq war a few months ago. All of the Iraqi air defenses were Russian, and they were all either managed by Russians or Iraqis directly trained by the Russians. Then they started hearing explosions. Power starts failing. It's not one explosion, it's many. This can't just be a single accident. Their scopes are empty. Their systems, nationwide, are showing nothing. The explosions, and reports of more are flooding in. This isn't carpet bombing. It's precise. Nearly every target is a direct hit, and it's all well protected, and highly secret locations. All night long, nothing on their radars and racing systems.

Russia got a very literal crash course just how far ahead of them we were that night. That X post sounds like we're continuing to remind Russia and show China just exactly what we can do and how powerless they are to do anything about it.

****This story was not meant to get into Russia/Chinese politics. They are proxy opponents in this conflict. My point was merely to reinforce that tweet with evidence from history.****
And I just referred to the first Gulf war as history. I'm gonna go cry now

NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position and approach within the… pic.twitter.com/01qj9Nw3FR

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 19, 2026

Welp, guess its time to take them out. Isreal, you're on deck.

aggiehawg said:

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fc2112 said:

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Iran does not want to mess with India. They are the second largest military in the world. They have a modern air force and navy.

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And nukes.

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I'd be happy to stand aside and let India use them, too

We are now using drones for anti-mining tasks in the Strait.

From WSJ:

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The Common Uncrewed Surface Vessel, a drone made by RTX that tows a new floating sonar system called the AQS-20, scans the bottom of the sea for mines, patrolling columns that are 100 feet wide at a time.

Battery-powered submarine drones, called the MK18 Mod 2 Kingfish and the Knifefish, made by General Dynamics can be dropped in the water from a small boat and then scan for mines in a pattern.

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Scope of expected problem:

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U.S. officials, citing American intelligence, said in March that Iran had deployed mines in the strait, but the scale of threat has remained unclear. Clark, the former navy official, said that Iran had likely laid fewer mines than expected because of American military pressure that prevented Tehran from using large minelaying ships.

"They were probably a small number of mines that you could deploy from small vessels of opportunity, so fishing boats, small cargo boats that go up and down the strait," Clark said. "It's much more kind of a clandestine deployment with vessels of opportunity that happens in the dead of night. And that's probably more like a dozen or two dozen."

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The bigger issue is how does this get resolved. I don't see how without regime change. How does that happen? You can't negotiate with people because no one seems be really in charge of Iran.

Gaw617 said:

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The bigger issue is how does this get resolved. I don't see how without regime change. How does that happen? You can't negotiate with people because no one seems be really in charge of Iran.

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Kill the radicals. Deal with the moderates.

IRGC heading for a civil war

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IRGC heading for a civil war

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No other way at this point, that I can see. It will go internecine.

Good article outlining the challenge of who we are negotiating with.

https://www.newyorker.com/news/the-lede/who-is-the-us-negotiating-with-in-iran

benchmark said:

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NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position and approach within the… pic.twitter.com/01qj9Nw3FR

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 19, 2026

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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A canal for supertankers? That would take forever, even if possible and further would become a bottleneck.

aggiehawg said:

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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A canal for supertankers? That would take forever, even if possible and further would become a bottleneck.

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This. And a canal would be vulnerable to a well placed missile strike or local terrorist action.

aggiehawg said:

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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A canal for supertankers? That would take forever, even if possible and further would become a bottleneck.

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It's not realistic. The depth along the coasts (both sides) are not conducive. The solution is pipelines.

Aggie95 said:

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benchmark said:

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NEW: Islamic Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC) Commander Major General Ahmad Vahidi and members of his inner circle have likely secured at least temporary control over not only Iran’s military response in this conflict but also Iran’s negotiating position and approach within the… pic.twitter.com/01qj9Nw3FR

— Institute for the Study of War (@TheStudyofWar) April 19, 2026

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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Not really. Too much elevation gain for a canal. Pipelines make more sense.

Haven't read this article, but it already seems fairly clear that we at either negotiating with people who do NOT possess the capacity to follow through with their agreements or are simply not trustworthy. Either way, it is time to move on.

twk said:

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Aggie95 said:

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Wonder of its remotely viable for the UAE to build a canal connecting the Persian Gulf and Gulf of Oman/Arabian Sea, effectively bypassing the strait of Hormuz.

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Not really. Too much elevation gain for a canal. Pipelines make more sense.

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Yep, there's the matter of a 2,000+ ft mountain range. UAE already has a pipeline across the peninsula to an export terminal in Fujairah on the Indian Ocean side. Pipeline capacity is about 1.5 mbd of UAE's total capacity of 2.7 mbd. Yes, the pipeline and port could eventually be doubled but their Fujairah terminal has been attacked by drones so it's not the perfect solution.

“We’re preparing to hit them harder than any country has ever been hit before because you cannot let them have a nuclear weapon," President Trump told me.

The President said the U.S. has "massive amounts" of ammunition.

“It's almost like they don't learn," he added. pic.twitter.com/8MlkzLs1Rq

— Trey Yingst (@TreyYingst) April 19, 2026