LMCane said:

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YouBet said:

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We are headed for an economic reckoning with this stuff. College grads are already looking at 10% UE numbers and that's only going to get worse.

Get ready for UBI policies getting floated in the next big election because if AI automates as much as the proponents say it will we are going to have massive numbers of people not working.

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who can explain Musk's utopia where the robots do all the work

the humans lay on the beach

and every human gets paid to lie on the beach

if no one is working- who pays taxes?

the companies with no humans pay taxes to a government with no humans, and that government takes all the money and gives to the humans?

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If history is any guide, what will happen is exactly what has always happened when tools become more efficient.

The people that are willing to work harder than everyone else will use those tools to create more value than anyone else, and they will get richer. Hard work will be more efficient, and the people that are willing to work the hardest will create more value. The people on the edge of working hard or relying on the government will choose to rely on the government as opposed to trying to compete with the hardest working of us.

The future will not be like the Jetsons with a four hour work week.

When the tools get better, the hardest workers get richer. Rinse and repeat for as long as capitalism survives.

ttu_85 said:

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BusterAg said:

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The hype is progressing as expected.



IMO we are at about 1.7 right now.

4.0 won't likely be until around 2029.

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Yep the Bronze age changed the world, Then the Iron age, The the printing press, the the steam engine, Then the wider Industrial revolution, The the information age, And now AI

The DURATION of Adjustment, aka adjusting to the impacts regarding global social, political, and economic consequences is what matters. In the old days changes were slow and some societies could adjust but only after major political changes. Example ~1170 BC and the Bronze age collapse.

But from the 1800's on, the changes to society and economics were more intense and successful adjustment slow after intense initial impacts resulting in on going instability. Socialism/Commie was for example, a failed attempted adjustment regarding the Industrial Rev.

Now here comes AI totally flipping the apple cart. If this guy is remotely correct the social and eco fallout is going to be massive with almost no adjustment time. Given the military and economic stakes vs China I think caution will be lacking.

If history is any guide- Hand on to your butts.

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The ancient Egyptians rose to power very quickly primarily due to one technology: billows.

They were able to make hotter fires, better metal workings, which paved the way to better weapons and chariots.

When that technology was disseminated, Egypt eventually lost their power.

AI will be disseminated quickly. All of these changes are going to be interesting. I do think that universal basic income is in the not too distant future, which isn't really a problem if the world population stagnates or starts to slowly shrink while technology continues to move forward.

OP can be ceo of deez nuts

SMM48 said:

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OP can be ceo of deez nuts

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This is the content I come to TexAgs for.

Well done sir

Gaw617 said:

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If this is true great. I will gladly retire from my job and live off stocks. If all the costs of labor are gone can you imagine the stock prices and deaths dividend payments?

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who is buying up all those stocks to keep the price high when no one has a job to earn any money to buy stocks?

you think your stocks just stay at this elevated price forever with no one buying or selling them?

how will you "live" off of stocks without selling them?

BusterAg said:

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ttu_85 said:

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BusterAg said:

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The hype is progressing as expected.



IMO we are at about 1.7 right now.

4.0 won't likely be until around 2029.

---

Yep the Bronze age changed the world, Then the Iron age, The the printing press, the the steam engine, Then the wider Industrial revolution, The the information age, And now AI

The DURATION of Adjustment, aka adjusting to the impacts regarding global social, political, and economic consequences is what matters. In the old days changes were slow and some societies could adjust but only after major political changes. Example ~1170 BC and the Bronze age collapse.

But from the 1800's on, the changes to society and economics were more intense and successful adjustment slow after intense initial impacts resulting in on going instability. Socialism/Commie was for example, a failed attempted adjustment regarding the Industrial Rev.

Now here comes AI totally flipping the apple cart. If this guy is remotely correct the social and eco fallout is going to be massive with almost no adjustment time. Given the military and economic stakes vs China I think caution will be lacking.

If history is any guide- Hand on to your butts.

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The ancient Egyptians rose to power very quickly primarily due to one technology: billows.

They were able to make hotter fires, better metal workings, which paved the way to better weapons and chariots.

When that technology was disseminated, Egypt eventually lost their power.

AI will be disseminated quickly. All of these changes are going to be interesting. I do think that universal basic income is in the not too distant future, which isn't really a problem if the world population stagnates or starts to slowly shrink while technology continues to move forward.

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One other thing - I think AI will eventually become the predominant consumer of electricity. We'll probably end up taxing it more for AI use to subsidize personal use. Yep, free electricity for your home.

I've driven in a Robotaxi. They're very close.

LMCane said:

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Gaw617 said:

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If this is true great. I will gladly retire from my job and live off stocks. If all the costs of labor are gone can you imagine the stock prices and deaths dividend payments?

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who is buying up all those stocks to keep the price high when no one has a job to earn any money to buy stocks?

you think your stocks just stay at this elevated price forever with no one buying or selling them?

how will you "live" off of stocks without selling them?

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Stocks are pretty rationally priced right now in my opinion.

Stocks are ownership of a companies' future earnings.

The S&P 500 is almost 30 right now, which is very high for historical standards. But, company earnings are going to grow, fast, thanks to AI. It is already happening. When those margins increase and AI is 80% factored in, then the prices need to stay about the same and earnings need to rise to get the P/E ratio back to around 15 to 20.

That won't happen. The P/E ratio will hit 40 on unrealistic expectations, there will be a bust, the P/E ratio will drop to around 12, and then we will recover. If you know that the timing of this cycle is going to be, you can easily get rich. In other words, the timing of the price changes will be hard to predict.

But, to pretend like stocks are empty paper isn't realistic. It is ownership of the value of earning potential, including the earnings that AI is going to create in the economy.

javajaws said:

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BusterAg said:

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AI will be disseminated quickly. All of these changes are going to be interesting. I do think that universal basic income is in the not too distant future, which isn't really a problem if the world population stagnates or starts to slowly shrink while technology continues to move forward.

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One other thing - I think AI will eventually become the predominant consumer of electricity. We'll probably end up taxing it more for AI use to subsidize personal use. Yep, free electricity for your home.

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This prediction is very easy to agree with.

Will AI get powerful enough that it starts to consume less electricity per operation? Very likely. But, I still think that AI will become the world's largest electricity consumer.

Working for a power company, or a construction company that makes power plants, probably a good gig right now. AI can't build a turbine.

AxelFoley85 said:

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I've driven in a Robotaxi. They're very close.

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What would our ai overlords do with us humans when the only thing they need is energy.....hmmm.

Copilot can't even get ppt or excel correct, but somehow it's going to replace all white collar jobs? Copilot gets so much crap wrong, it's like a damn kid half the time. I call BS.