dmart90 said:

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Not in my lifetime. Our economy crashes, so does the rest of the world. Not happening.

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This is flat out wish casting. Just because the negative impacts of our downfall have the most global impact does not mean it can't happen.

You are literally saying, "Well, it's just too much to think about so I demand it can't happen."

GE said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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It is in process and the event horizon has been crossed. There is no way out other than default. Most likely as of default through further debasement of the currency. They are going to inflate their way out of this.

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We'll see. The impact of robots will be extremely deflationary over the next 15 years.

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This is:

1. Wishful thinking - we have no idea how AI/robotics will impact the economy long term.
2. Likely not going to happen quickly enough - I think we are close to a credit crunch (led by the bond markets)

GE said:

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Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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It is in process and the event horizon has been crossed. There is no way out other than default. Most likely as of default through further debasement of the currency. They are going to inflate their way out of this.

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We'll see. The impact of robots will be extremely deflationary over the next 15 years.

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I agree. The thing I wonder about is how the opposing force of technological advancement and the necessity of printing more money so the system does not collapse will interact with one another.

YouBet said:

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dmart90 said:

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Not in my lifetime. Our economy crashes, so does the rest of the world. Not happening.

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This is flat out wish casting. Just because the negative impacts of our downfall have the most global impact does not mean it can't happen.

You are literally saying, "Well, it's just too much to think about so I demand it can't happen."

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There's plenty of reason to believe things will go south. I'm not ignoring anything. Other posters have bemoaned the fact that the Fed has printed money or that we keep raising the debt ceiling and those things have kicked the can down the road. I don't disagree.

What I do know is NO politician wants to be associated with a crash. So they will continue to vote for and support the federal government pulling every trick out of the hat to keep things going.

So no, I don't believe it's going down the toilet any time soon.

Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

BigRobSA said:

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dmart90 said:

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Not in my lifetime. Our economy crashes, so does the rest of the world. Not happening.

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How are you posting from the grave?!

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Teslag said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

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I was in high school 15 years ago, so I'll take your word for it. However, things were significantly different.. the debt wasn't this out of control. Purchasing power was much higher. Americans are running out of the stimulus money from 2020-2021. Savings are diminishing, consumer debt is at all time highs, and delinquencies are climbing.

But I guess all is well.

About AI and inflation.

In a vacuum, it would be deflationary. BUT

The deflationary aspect (at least in the next 2-5 years) it will cause large unemployment. I can easily see 10 perhaps even 15 percent further out. Which will blow a larger hole in the deficit - fewer wage taxes and SS withholdings and as well as outlays to support these newly unemployed.

If the politicians refuse to cut spending with our low unemployment, they certainly won't cut if unemployment is triple (plus???). Because, after all, it is another emergency, right?

Teslag said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

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That was $24T dollars ago. Debt to GDP ratio was ~85% and now it's ~123%.

Completely pointless comparison.

We are way worse off now than we have ever been so the argument of "it's never happened before so it can't happen now" is totally illogical.

maroonthrunthru said:

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I say 2040…

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Here's Jamie Dimon's take as reported yesterday.....

Quote:

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JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon has sounded the alarm about the 'enemy within' America, which he warned is a bigger threat than China.

Dimon claims that the United States is suffering from a worrying government 'mismanagement' issue which has the potential to 'kill us'.


'The amount of mismanagement is extraordinary - by state, by city, for pensions, and that stuff is going to kill us,' the billionaire banker told the forum.

Dimon sounded the alarm on a 'crack' appearing in the bond market as a result of the wildly soaring national debt - which Trump is set to compound with the $3 trillion Big Beautiful Bill awaiting Senate approval.

A 'crack' in the bond market occurs when investors lose confidence in the government's ability to service its debt. Bonds are sold, yields go higher and the cost of borrowing increases for all Americans, including the government itself.

'You are going to see a crack in the bond market. It is going to happen,' Dimon told the economic forum, predicting it could appear in six months to six years.



I'm telling you it's going to happen, and you're going to panic. I'm not going to panic. We'll be fine. We'll probably make more money.'

Dimon clarified that a crack in the market hasn't happened yet, but is confident it will occur.

'I just don't know if it's going to be a crisis in six months or six years, and I'm hoping that we change both the trajectory of the debt and the ability of market makers to make markets,' he added.

We have to get our act together. We have to do it very quickly.'
Dimon, 69, has run JPMorgan Chase, the largest US bank, for more than 19 years, outlasting many other CEOs, and is one of the most prominent voices in corporate America.

His remarks at Friday's forum come just days after he delivered a sobering assessment of the US economy and warned the true fallout from Trump's sweeping tariff policy has yet to be felt.


https://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-14766139/jamie-dimon-warning-trade-china-enemy-within.html

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Good luck to all the naysayers.

My strategy is to follow the most informed, most liquid, and most influential bank in the US......

BoydCrowder13 said:

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Crazy thing is Singapore has a debt to GDP 40% worse than ours. Japan is 2X. The EU is almost as bad.

Relatively low debt to GDP? Australia, South Korea, Denmark, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland.

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Japan has had like 1/2% yearly GDP growth the last two decades.

Singapore has defied gravity and grown despite their high debt. From what I understand, a lot of their debt has been used to finance infrastructure, not for welfare Queens eating ho hos. Additionaly, a lot of their debt was used to purchase investment assets, not deficit spending.

If half our debt was in US stocks, we wouldn't be having this discussion.

YouBet said:

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Teslag said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

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That was $24T dollars ago. Debt to GDP ratio was ~85% and now it's ~123%.

Completely pointless comparison.

We are way worse off now than we have ever been so the argument of "it's never happened before so it can't happen now" is totally illogical.

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And this is was also said. It's always worse. The cliff is here. At some point it just became a broken record.

Logos Stick said:

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The good news is that the oldest boomers are 82. The Grim Reaper will assist in reducing the spend over the next two decades

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and the population boom with new retirees will make 100x worse

HalifaxAg said:

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Logos Stick said:

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The good news is that the oldest boomers are 82. The Grim Reaper will assist in reducing the spend over the next two decades

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and the population boom with new retirees will make 100x worse

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Incorrect. Boomers are 20% larger than Gen X.

eta: not only that, but the full social security retirement age for boomers averaged 66. For Gen X, it's 67.

Teslag said:

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YouBet said:

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Teslag said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

---

And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

---

Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

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That was $24T dollars ago. Debt to GDP ratio was ~85% and now it's ~123%.

Completely pointless comparison.

We are way worse off now than we have ever been so the argument of "it's never happened before so it can't happen now" is totally illogical.

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And this is was also said. It's always worse. The cliff is here. At some point it just became a broken record.

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People back then saying we need to get our house in order before it gets too far gone to prevent were correct then.

And the rest of us are correct now that we are in all likelihood past the point of no return now.

The math back then was recoverable. The math now is not.

So, yes, when the math keeps getting worse with zero retreat backwards then it's always getting worse by default. Denying mathematical reality blows my mind on this topic.

It's like some of you just think things can go on in perpetuity. All empires fail. It's inevitable and we are closer to that point than we ever have been.

Depends upon the rate of population decline, that's going to dictate most everything.

Interesting talk on the bond markets, debt/spending crisis, and small discussion on the impact of the Yen carry trade on our bond prices.

The wheels came off in 2010, we're just too drunk on credit to notice. That is the year social security quit bringing in as much money as it was paying out. We've been printing money to cover the shortfall ever since.

one safe place said:

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July 28, 2061

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Bookmarked for reference in 2061

I don't know a specific time frame but, the Yen carry trade has the greatest potential to create a right terrible **** storm in markets world wide. The margin calls and losses associated with that trade would be massive...trillions. Taxpayer bailouts couldn't save them...though I am sure our illustrious politicians would float the idea.

sam callahan said:

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In 1998, I was sure it would be in the next ten years.

Our ability to duct tape and baling wire this thing is beyond my comprehension. But when it does crash, we will all wish I was right back in 1998, because the longer it is allowed to teeter, the bigger the crash will be.

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Our national debt/deficit, both nominally and as a percent of gdp doesn't hold a candle to where it's at today

GE said:

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We'll see. The impact of robots will be extremely deflationary over the next 15 years.

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that may be true, but I can guarantee you that inflation will far outpace it.

There are only two ways forward at this point. Huge cuts to government….or inflation. It's obvious which one we will get.

Patrick Bet David has been predicting a great year in 2026. The country turns 250, Trump turns 80, World Cup is here.

Part of me thinks he's on to something. Trump is a master marketer and it would seem to be a waste of an opportunity if he doesn't find a way to capitalize on that timing. And yes, that throws all pragmatic thinking aside.

I don't think it will ever completely collapse. The American economy is going to circle the toilet long enough to start World War 3, then spending/restructuring/baby boom out of WW3 will stimulate the economy again. I think mid-2030's is a fair assessment for when World War 3 kicks off.

Gen X/elder millennials are going to be shafted big time in retirement.

jopatura said:

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I don't think it will ever completely collapse. The American economy is going to circle the toilet long enough to start World War 3, then spending/restructuring/baby boom out of WW3 will stimulate the economy again. I think mid-2030's is a fair assessment for when World War 3 kicks off.

Gen X/elder millennials are going to be shafted big time in retirement.

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How does this screw Gen X? They will have a ton of the wealth and will not be wiped out or put the careers on hold fighting a war.

If you've ever heard someone from ITR economics speak at an industry event, they've been putting their reputation on the line for the last decade that the crash will be in 2030.

dmart90 said:

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YouBet said:

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dmart90 said:

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Not in my lifetime. Our economy crashes, so does the rest of the world. Not happening.

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This is flat out wish casting. Just because the negative impacts of our downfall have the most global impact does not mean it can't happen.

You are literally saying, "Well, it's just too much to think about so I demand it can't happen."

---

There's plenty of reason to believe things will go south. I'm not ignoring anything. Other posters have bemoaned the fact that the Fed has printed money or that we keep raising the debt ceiling and those things have kicked the can down the road. I don't disagree.

What I do know is NO politician wants to be associated with a crash. So they will continue to vote for and support the federal government pulling every trick out of the hat to keep things going.

So no, I don't believe it's going down the toilet any time soon.

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Every trick other than addressing the clearly identified root cause? What are these tricks you're referring to? Please cite examples.

Teslag said:

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YouBet said:

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Teslag said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

---

And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

---

Ya this was said 15 years ago too.

---

That was $24T dollars ago. Debt to GDP ratio was ~85% and now it's ~123%.

Completely pointless comparison.

We are way worse off now than we have ever been so the argument of "it's never happened before so it can't happen now" is totally illogical.

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And this is was also said. It's always worse. The cliff is here. At some point it just became a broken record.

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Things are always a broken record until they're not.

Stocks always go up until they don't.

Things always go slow until they go fast.

It's prudent to prepare for the worst, even if it's unexpected. And this is far from unexpected.

jopatura said:

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I don't think it will ever completely collapse. The American economy is going to circle the toilet long enough to start World War 3, then spending/restructuring/baby boom out of WW3 will stimulate the economy again. I think mid-2030's is a fair assessment for when World War 3 kicks off.

Gen X/elder millennials are going to be shafted big time in retirement.

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As someone squarely in that demographic, I'm way more concerned for my kids entering the workforce around the same time.

let's say 2027 to 2035, somewhere in that time frame. My next questions are:

how long does the "collapse" go on?
How long does hyperinflation, soup lines, crazy high taxes and unemployment last?

Is it like a virus where the economy vomits out a bunch of bad stuff and resets in a 3 year window? Does it take 7 to 10 years? Does it ever "recover"?

Aggie95 said:

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let's say 2027 to 2035, somewhere in that time frame. My next questions are:

how long does the "collapse" go on?
How long does hyperinflation, soup lines, crazy high taxes and unemployment last?

Is it like a virus where the economy vomits out a bunch of bad stuff and resets in a 3 year window? Does it take 7 to 10 years? Does it ever "recover"?

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Recovery is impossible to predict because the govt could do what they did in the 1930s and decimate the economy further by trying to fix it. Sowell writes about the govts involvement in the Great Depression.

Aggies1322 said:

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Aggie95 said:

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let's say 2027 to 2035, somewhere in that time frame. My next questions are:

how long does the "collapse" go on?
How long does hyperinflation, soup lines, crazy high taxes and unemployment last?

Is it like a virus where the economy vomits out a bunch of bad stuff and resets in a 3 year window? Does it take 7 to 10 years? Does it ever "recover"?

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Recovery is impossible to predict because the govt could do what they did in the 1930s and decimate the economy further by trying to fix it. Sowell writes about the govts involvement in the Great Depression.

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I will bet you some future worthless dollars when this collapse happens that the government will absolutely get involved and make it worse. The majority of this stupid country will demand it.