1971
Nixon eliminates Gold standard and initiates "fiat" monetary system

whatthehey78 said:

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1971
Nixon eliminates Gold standard and initiates "fiat" monetary system

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Gold standard was eliminated long before that.. Nixon was just the first to publicly state it.

Mr.Milkshake said:

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Ppl just love fear.

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Personally, I hate it. If you're running a company and your interest expense is 20% of your revenue and you're running a deficit (net loss) that is 40% of your top line revenue - what happens to your company? How long do you last? What bank would give you credit? What would that credit be priced at?

TA-OP said:

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This pessimism about a country I love is disheartening. It's downright comical that this same pessimism suggests history would hold President Trump to blame for destroying the USA, and thus making the crazy libs to appear that they were right all along.

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Are we assuming here that Historians are completely morons?

I mean, many are, dont get me wrong.

Is this like predicting when we boil alive due to climate change?

Silent For Too Long said:

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TA-OP said:

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This pessimism about a country I love is disheartening. It's downright comical that this same pessimism suggests history would hold President Trump to blame for destroying the USA, and thus making the crazy libs to appear that they were right all along.

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Are we assuming here that Historians are completely morons?

I mean, many are, dont get me wrong.

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Morons or not, there are multiple claims that the US collapses soon. If it happens in the next few years, historians are probably going to blame the guy that was in charge.

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Is this like predicting when we boil alive due to climate change?

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How is predicting economic fallout from spending money we don't have the same as quack science?

Maybe AI can solve this problem for us since we can't.

ts5641 said:

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Maybe AI can solve this problem for us since we can't.

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AI? It's basic math.. cut spending until it falls below your tax revenue. Then use any excess tax revenue to begin repaying the outstanding obligations.

There will be no collapse, just a continued slow decline, look at japan, as we continue to increase the welfare state, we will continue the slow spiral down. But dont underestimate the financial strenght of this country, it will take along time.

Inflation must be offset by AI/automation deflation. That's the only way we dont have a deep stagflationary depression in the 2030s. No POTUS will ever slash spending and crash markets in short term. They will all choose the spend for growth path.

one safe place said:

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July 28, 2061

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Can you clarify? This vague answer won't help me.

Are we talking when the market opens or closes so i can plan accordingly....will set a few calendar reminders...

Trump is attempting to temper it slowly for the reasons you stated. This is why I've grown tired of Paul and Massey. If we enacted their vision in the manner they suggest, our economy would implode. The problem is the next administration..

Aggies1322 said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Is this like predicting when we boil alive due to climate change?

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How is predicting economic fallout from spending money we don't have the same as quack science?

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Because the govt and whatever administration is in power at the time can put their thumb on the scales and manipulate the outcome to a pretty good, degree kicking the can down the road.

The point is when will they not be able to do that?

dmart90 said:

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Not in my lifetime. Our economy crashes, so does the rest of the world. Not happening.

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That's makes zero sense. So the world economy can't crash?! A US economy crash would cause that, so the US economy can't crash?! Based on what?

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Is this like predicting when we boil alive due to climate change?

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How is predicting economic fallout from spending money we don't have the same as quack science?

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Because the govt and whatever administration is in power at the time can put their thumb on the scales and manipulate the outcome to a pretty good, degree kicking the can down the road.

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Not really. They have been able to for 2008 and Covid.. but the relative purchasing power and national debt are no longer in a spot to support that type of behavior. We are at a spot that printing money and releasing it into the economy is no longer a solution.

A favorite analyst of mine always says "Peak oil is just another way of saying you're short human ingenuity."

I tend to think that technology will outpace financialization and inflationary issues. Between technology and demographic changes, I think it's more likely we face much more significant levels of deflation than inflation over the long term.

UBI is going to be almost a certainty - we already have it to some degree it's just an argument over what "basic" is going to be.

Automation will cause millions of people to adapt their professional track. You can look at Japan for an example of what an aging population supplemented by automation looks like. The US is headed that direction, slower than most, but headed that way.

Aggies1322 said:

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ts5641 said:

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Maybe AI can solve this problem for us since we can't.

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AI? It's basic math.. cut spending until it falls below your tax revenue. Then use any excess tax revenue to begin repaying the outstanding obligations.

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Seems like it'd be cheaper to bomb or bully whomever (China) we owe the debt to. We do it for oil.

waco_aggie05 said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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ts5641 said:

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Maybe AI can solve this problem for us since we can't.

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AI? It's basic math.. cut spending until it falls below your tax revenue. Then use any excess tax revenue to begin repaying the outstanding obligations.

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Seems like it'd be cheaper to bomb or bully whomever (China) we owe the debt to. We do it for oil.

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That's not how it works.. the bond market is a market. Not a single debt holder. The bond market is/has lost faith in the financial responsibility of our govt and as such the UST are significantly more expensive. That will only create a bigger concern with interest payments climbing higher as we retire and reprice our debt at the higher rates.

Aggies1322 said:

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waco_aggie05 said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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ts5641 said:

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Maybe AI can solve this problem for us since we can't.

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AI? It's basic math.. cut spending until it falls below your tax revenue. Then use any excess tax revenue to begin repaying the outstanding obligations.

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Seems like it'd be cheaper to bomb or bully whomever (China) we owe the debt to. We do it for oil.

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That's not how it works.. the bond market is a market. Not a single debt holder. The bond market is/has lost faith in the financial responsibility of our govt and as such the UST are significantly more expensive. That will only create a bigger concern with interest payments climbing higher as we retire and reprice our debt at the higher rates.

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The rough 20 year auction ($16B) certainly made the news rounds. People have been much more quiet about yesterdays 7 year auction ($44B) that was the strongest 7 year auction in years.

For me, it doesn't point to a loss of faith...it does however point to the fact that purchasers are going to demand a higher return given the lack of fiscal responsibility and implied inflationary results.

We are in it now. Have been since 2008. We will be in this same predicament until the early 2030s.

Next few years most Americans will suffer mild to extreme financial pain (i.e - live well below the levels they've been accustomed to and/or have their retirement dreams crushed)

A few will become wealthier than they ever imagined because they studied history, read the room, and made the correct bets on the future.

TA-OP said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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TA-OP said:

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This pessimism about a country I love is disheartening. It's downright comical that this same pessimism suggests history would hold President Trump to blame for destroying the USA, and thus making the crazy libs to appear that they were right all along.

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Are we assuming here that Historians are completely morons?

I mean, many are, dont get me wrong.

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Morons or not, there are multiple claims that the US collapses soon. If it happens in the next few years, historians are probably going to blame the guy that was in charge.

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Only if they have an agenda and an axe to grind.

Any rational analysis comparison of Trump's attempts to deport the 10+million illegals brought in by the Biden administration, his attempts to reshape trade through tariffs, or his attempt to change fiscal policy through the Big Beautiful Bill (which does little to reduce government spending)... ALL of which are challenged and/or stayed by judicial action... will pale as far as lasting effect on our economy and the dollar in comparison to the actions of Biden's administration's weakening our military presence and focus, selling access for money for the family, opening of the borders to hostile individuals without vetting, and massive spending/inflation.

Historical accounts will not depend on internet postings - yours or mine.

FDT 1999 said:

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DamnGood86 said:

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Colossal pullback in 2026, recovery 2027 and collapse of dollar in 2030-2035 timeframe.

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Agree with this. The collapse and another Great Depression-style period happens around the 2030-2035 timeframe.

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need to get to 2032 before collapse

so I get into the Social Security payment system

the fact that the median savings of someone 65 from a Google Search is:

Median Retirement Savings (65-74): Approximately $200,000

I have no idea what will happen to millions of poor elderly if Social Security stops payments

Krombopulos Michael said:

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We are in it now. Have been since 2008. We will be in this same predicament until the early 2030s.

Next few years most Americans will suffer mild to extreme financial pain (i.e - live well below the levels they've been accustomed to and/or have their retirement dreams crushed)

A few will become wealthier than they ever imagined because they studied history, read the room, and made the correct bets on the future.

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Agree. Sounds like what Larry Lepard states in The Big Print. Have you read it?

Tony Franklins Other Shoe said:

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Is this like predicting when we boil alive due to climate change?

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No.

TA-OP said:

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Silent For Too Long said:

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TA-OP said:

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This pessimism about a country I love is disheartening. It's downright comical that this same pessimism suggests history would hold President Trump to blame for destroying the USA, and thus making the crazy libs to appear that they were right all along.

---

Are we assuming here that Historians are completely morons?

I mean, many are, dont get me wrong.

---

Morons or not, there are multiple claims that the US collapses soon. If it happens in the next few years, historians are probably going to blame the guy that was in charge.

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There will be a long of people the blame, but the last one's not to do something about it will deserve the most blame. Because as we get closer to the edge, the need to do something goes up. To not do anything would mean increasing negligence.

Crazy thing is Singapore has a debt to GDP 40% worse than ours. Japan is 2X. The EU is almost as bad.

Relatively low debt to GDP? Australia, South Korea, Denmark, Norway, Russia, Sweden, Switzerland.

This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

Full-on depression - not in the next 50 years unless there is a major war or some sort of event like a meteor strike or super volcano eruption or AGI takeover.

Recession - we may be in one now but it won't last longer than next summer.

People are vastly underestimating the massive productivity increases that are going to be AI and robotics driven. We're going to grow our way out of it.

Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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It is in process and the event horizon has been crossed. There is no way out other than default. Most likely a soft default through further debasement of the currency. They are going to inflate their way out of this.

LMCane said:

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FDT 1999 said:

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DamnGood86 said:

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Colossal pullback in 2026, recovery 2027 and collapse of dollar in 2030-2035 timeframe.

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Agree with this. The collapse and another Great Depression-style period happens around the 2030-2035 timeframe.

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need to get to 2032 before collapse

so I get into the Social Security payment system

the fact that the median savings of someone 65 from a Google Search is:

Median Retirement Savings (65-74): Approximately $200,000

I have no idea what will happen to millions of poor elderly if Social Security stops payments

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This is damn near my timetable as well.

Its Texas Aggies, dammit said:

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Aggies1322 said:

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Teslag said:

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This board has been predicting financial collapse for about 15 years now.

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And it would have happened had the fed not printed trillions of dollars in stimulus and bailouts every time liquidity dried up. Now that isn't an option because they kicked the can down the road for too long.

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It is in process and the event horizon has been crossed. There is no way out other than default. Most likely as of default through further debasement of the currency. They are going to inflate their way out of this.

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We'll see. The impact of robots will be extremely deflationary over the next 15 years.