I do think that there is a slice of the electorate who are Pro Cornyn or Anti Paxton, who won't vote for Paxton, and won't vote for the dem. They will just sit it out. They may vote in every other race, but just leave that one blank. I know plenty of people who have expressed that.

Yesterday said:

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I'll vote to keep white Obama out of Texas no matter who is running for Republican

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Smart man!

Any real leaning person staying home in Nov needs their head examined!!

I would suspect there would be a lot of those people.

Gaeilge said:

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And I'm one of them that's pro-Paxton and anti-Cornyn. Who's to say I won't stay home if it's Cornyn on the R ticket?

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Same.

The R crowd that's focused more on not losing rather than winning hasn't learned their lesson that their fear is misguided and a losers strategy. The D's never learn from mistakes but hopefully the squishy RINO's learn that playing to not lose when your peers want to win means you are doing more harm than good. Ideally, they learn this lesson before the runoff.

Cornyn is a win compared to Talarico. How does the independent vote view Paxton now versus 4 yrs ago? How do independent voters view Talarico compared to Paxton?

We could become the new AZ if we're not careful, Kari Lake worked out really well versus Gallegos.

My only concern with Talrico isn't that he'll win, it's that he'll spend tens of millions and that could impact down ballot races just like Beto did in his race against Cruz.

Ag87H2O said:

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My only concern with Talrico isn't that he'll win, it's that he'll spend tens of millions and that could impact down ballot races just like Beto did in his race against Cruz.

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That is what Dan Patrick is worried about. He thinks the Dems have a chance to flip the Texas House

Gaeilge said:

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And I'm one of them that's pro-Paxton and anti-Cornyn. Who's to say I won't stay home if it's Cornyn on the R ticket?

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This is why I think that the GOP is F'ed regardless of who wins the runoff. If Paxton wins the Establishment is going to stay home and if Cornyn wins MAGA is going to stay home.

I think these "I am going to stay home" types are largely an internet phenomenon.

I say that as an example. If Cornyn wins it, I'll still vote for the worthless RINO. The devil you know….

But there are a lot of Cornyn voters that aren't of the same mentality. And Cornyn has refused to say he'll back Paxton if he wins the runoff. Paxton has already said he would back Cornyn.

The failed mudslinging campaign started by Cornyn demonstrates he is going self-interests over party-interests. He's full of sour grape over this.

I think Trump endorses Paxton a week before the runoff if the SAVE Act isn't on his desk.

I will vote for either, but the wild card with Paxton is that enough find him shady and repulsive that they just can't bring themselves to vote for him. It may not follow a normal "my guy didn't win the primary but I can still hold my nose and punch for the other" distribution

Cornyn's got stink too. That said, at the end of the day, I expect MAGA to be repulsed by Talarico so much that they will indeed hold their nose for Cornyn. I don't think that is as much the case for Cornyn because any Cornyn supporter is already questionable on the policies they support. They've already compromised on policy vs personality by being a Cornyn supporter to begin with

Aggie97 said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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My only concern with Talrico isn't that he'll win, it's that he'll spend tens of millions and that could impact down ballot races just like Beto did in his race against Cruz.

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That is what Dan Patrick is worried about. He thinks the Dems have a chance to flip the Texas House

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They control it now, don't kid yourself

I know, it's the NYT, but here are some excerpts from the article Why a Democratic Senate, Once Unthinkable, Is a Real Possibility

Quote:

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At the start of the 2026 election cycle, the Senate looked far out of reach for the Democrats. The House always seemed competitive, but retaking the Senate would require flipping at least four Republican-held seats including at least two seats in states that President Trump won by double digits in 2024. In today's polarized era, Democrats would need everything to break their way.

So far, everything is breaking the Democrats' way.

With Mr. Trump's approval rating falling and inflation rising, along with the uncertainty of a war in the Middle East, it's not hard to imagine a Democratic tsunami in November. A blue wave is not guaranteed, of course, and Democrats would not be assured to flip two reliably Republican states even if it were.

But a feasible path for the party to win the Senate is coming into focus.

In recent polls, Democrats appear tied or ahead in four Republican-controlled seats the number they would need to take the Senate. These include Maine and North Carolina, where the likely Democratic nominees hold clear leads, as well as Ohio and Alaska, where Democrats have recruited strong candidates in states Mr. Trump won by double digits in 2024.

There are also signs that Republicans could be in danger in two more states where Mr. Trump won by double digits: Iowa and Texas.

If there's a single reason Democrats have a realistic chance to win the Senate, it's that they've recruited unusually strong candidates in three states that supported Mr. Trump three times: North Carolina, Ohio and Alaska.

In all three states, the Democrats' likely nominees are popular recent statewide office holders. They either won their last campaign or were highly competitive in losing re-election under less favorable political conditions. So far, the polls show those Democrats running well ahead of what one might otherwise expect.

Enter Iowa and Texas.

On paper, it's not obvious that either state ought to be competitive, even in this political environment. Mr. Trump won them by a slightly bigger margin than he did in Alaska and Ohio, and Democrats don't have well-established candidates. By the numbers, these states seem like Florida, which isn't as serious an option for Democrats.

But for different reasons, Democrats can still picture a victory in Texas and Iowa.

Texas has the clearer case. While Mr. Trump won the state by 14 points, the Lone Star may not be as red as it seems.

In 2020, Texas voted for Mr. Trump by just 5.6 points; his double-digit victory in 2024 was built on enormous gains among nonwhite voters, who have snapped back to the Democrats in recent polls. That would send Texas zooming back toward the left and, in this national environment, into contention. In the state primary in March, more voters cast ballots for Democrats than Republicans.

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Why didn't you just cite the DNC?

The left wants it to be true so badly they can't help themselves. They paint a world with all the drama and doom and gloom they can muster to build an anti-Trump narrative - which is far from the truth. America is better and safer today than it has been in decades.

Adam Corolla's analysis is spot on. The Democrats whine and groan to the point where a lot of low-information voters will break down and give them what they want even though they might suspect it's not in their long term best interests, just to make the incessant noise go away. It's like giving into children to avoid the tantrum.

Gaeilge said:

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And I'm one of them that's pro-Paxton and anti-Cornyn. Who's to say I won't stay home if it's Cornyn on the R ticket?

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I certainly will.

And those that will a pass to every anti-Paxton homebody in November (if Paxton wins the primary) will come out with pitchforks for me.

Gaeilge said:

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I'm truly curious why people think that Talarico is truly a threat to the Rs holding the seat if Paxton wins? His closest win for AG was 3.5% in 2018. He won in 2022 by 10%. Why is there this massive belief that all of a suddenly he is going to lose?

If these people truly had a problem with Paxton's personal life, why the hell did Trump win Texas by 14% in 2024 given the additional bad press that came out against him from 2020-2024?

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I put the reasoning right in my post.

Paxton has enough bad luggage that he could lose a lot of the middle...especially to someone that "seems" not so bad (Talarico).

I'm not saying Talarico is good in any way shape or form. Just that he appears less controversial and that could pull enough of the squishy middle over to his side to beat a GOP candidate like Paxton...

Gaeilge said:

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But that squishy middle overwhelming voted Trump in 2024. Trump was "found liable for sexual abuse" and "convicted" of 34 felonies before his election in 2024. Even if it was political law fare. Same can be said about Paxton's impeachment crap.

Paxton cheated on his wife. Widely believe Trump has too. Paxton has some shady business dealings. Trump has plenty of these. None of that is earth shattering for a politician.

Paxton has won Texas multiple times and I'm just not seeing where all of a suddenly these people are going to say "NOPE!" and vote for a guy that mocks Christian views, supports open borders, and is completely fine with boys in girls sports.

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Libs don't want Cornyn out. There is a reason they always went after Cruz and not Cornyn. Now there is a challenger to Cornyn and they don't like it.

All they have left is "he's got baggage". That's it. So, you see them using it.

Good luck!!

Gaeilge said:

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But that squishy middle overwhelming voted Trump in 2024. Trump was "found liable for sexual abuse" and "convicted" of 34 felonies before his election in 2024. Even if it was political law fare. Same can be said about Paxton's impeachment crap.

Paxton cheated on his wife. Widely believe Trump has too. Paxton has some shady business dealings. Trump has plenty of these. None of that is earth shattering for a politician.

Paxton has won Texas multiple times and I'm just not seeing where all of a suddenly these people are going to say "NOPE!" and vote for a guy that mocks Christian views, supports open borders, and is completely fine with boys in girls sports.

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That's because it's Trump.

Paxton doesn't have the same following.

Well, Beto fits all of that and made the race with Cruz quite tighter than it should have been...and Cruz doesn't have any baggage like Paxton does...

I'll vote Paxton in the general if he wins, but I'd prefer the GOP to not to have to waste money on that race because there's a good chance it'll be close.

Science Denier said:

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Gaeilge said:

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But that squishy middle overwhelming voted Trump in 2024. Trump was "found liable for sexual abuse" and "convicted" of 34 felonies before his election in 2024. Even if it was political law fare. Same can be said about Paxton's impeachment crap.

Paxton cheated on his wife. Widely believe Trump has too. Paxton has some shady business dealings. Trump has plenty of these. None of that is earth shattering for a politician.

Paxton has won Texas multiple times and I'm just not seeing where all of a suddenly these people are going to say "NOPE!" and vote for a guy that mocks Christian views, supports open borders, and is completely fine with boys in girls sports.

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Libs don't want Cornyn out. There is a reason they always went after Cruz and not Cornyn. Now there is a challenger to Cornyn and they don't like it.

All they have left is "he's got baggage". That's it. So, you see them using it.

Good luck!!

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If you'd picked pretty much ANY other Republican, I doubt many would have a problem with getting Cornyn out. But instead, it's the one candidate that could make the race close.

Gaeilge said:

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But that squishy middle overwhelming voted Trump in 2024. Trump was "found liable for sexual abuse" and "convicted" of 34 felonies before his election in 2024. Even if it was political law fare. Same can be said about Paxton's impeachment crap.

Paxton cheated on his wife. Widely believe Trump has too. Paxton has some shady business dealings. Trump has plenty of these. None of that is earth shattering for a politician.

Paxton has won Texas multiple times and I'm just not seeing where all of a suddenly these people are going to say "NOPE!" and vote for a guy that mocks Christian views, supports open borders, and is completely fine with boys in girls sports.

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The main difference between Trump and Paxton is that Trump never ran on his Christian "values". Paxton before he got caught being hyporcritcal POS ran always extolling his Christian values.

Trump dominated the evangelical vote. Do you seriously think Talarico can carry that vote with his God is nonbinary and refusal to recognize abortion goes against conservative politics?

Aggie97 said:

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Ag87H2O said:

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My only concern with Talrico isn't that he'll win, it's that he'll spend tens of millions and that could impact down ballot races just like Beto did in his race against Cruz.

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That is what Dan Patrick is worried about. He thinks the Dems have a chance to flip the Texas House

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Stop making people like Talarico vice chairs. Stop electing the speaker with dem votes.