Syrian rebels enter Homs.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-rebels-enter-key-city-homs-report/

Protestors brong down Assad statue in Damascus.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/protesters-bring-down-statue-of-bashar-al-assads-father-in-damascus-suburb/

Syrian rebels encircle Damascus.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-rebels-say-they-have-begun-encirclement-of-damascus/

Once HTS takes Tartus it's over, there is a Russian naval base there where Syria gets most of its Russian resupply through

The Fall Guy said:

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Syrian rebels encircle Damascus.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/syrian-rebels-say-they-have-begun-encirclement-of-damascus/

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An article with literally two statements with dueling Baghdad Bob's. Awesome!

Quote:

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Syrian rebels say they have started to surround government-held Damascus after seizing towns close by, as the Syrian defense ministry denies the army had fled positions near the capital.

Rebel commander Hassan Abdel Ghani, with the Islamist-led alliance that launched the offensive in the country's northwest, says "our forces have begun the final phase of encircling the capital, Damascus." The ministry says "there is no truth to news claiming our armed forces, present in all areas of the Damascus countryside, have withdrawn."

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P.U.T.U said:

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Once HTS takes Tartus it's over, there is a Russian naval base there where Syria gets most of its Russian resupply through

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Bad for Russia as well. They lose access to the Mediterranean if this base goes kaput.

This entire deal is the classic "gradually then suddenly" outcome.

Very interesting how Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea…..major powers getting pushed around by a bunch of pitchfork wielding farmers (at least that's what we were told was the enemy) … guess Joe Biden saying if you don't have F35's…

A protracted civil war among the various jihadi factions is most likely.

Syrian state media report that Russia, Turkey, and Iran have agreed to stop all military activity inside Syria. Assad is done. https://t.co/c29aaX1dpt

— Kyle Glen (@KyleJGlen) December 7, 2024

#BREAKING Lavrov says Russia, Iran and Turkey have agreed to stop military operations in Syria and will take steps on the ground

— Guy Elster (@guyelster) December 7, 2024

#Syria: footage from the center of #Damascus and Umayyad Square as rebels advance on the city's outskirts. The situation appears calm and there is no military in sight.

It's like the Syrian capital is just waiting for the rebels to march in. pic.twitter.com/rfqm8PFb8P

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 7, 2024

What a route (of Assad's army).

Again, gradually then suddenly. Took less than a week.

KerrAg76 said:

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Very interesting how Syria, Libya, Afghanistan, Iraq, Vietnam, Korea…..major powers getting pushed around by a bunch of pitchfork wielding farmers (at least that's what we were told was the enemy) … guess Joe Biden saying if you don't have F35's…

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Which Trump may move away from. lol.

They are too expensive and try to do too much.

I keep checking the headlines for American forces being ordered out of the theater. I wonder WTAF they are being told their orders/mission is right now.

nortex97 said:

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I keep checking the headlines for American forces being ordered out of the theater. I wonder WTAF they are being told their orders/mission is right now.

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Sounds like we are just watching from the east to see what will happen.

Russia, Iran, and Turkey will decide the outcome here. Sounds like Russia knows it's over and is now going to try and negotiate keeping its two bases in whatever ruling arrangement comes out of this.

I agree, I just don't trust the Biden clown cabinet/pentagon to actually have a plan to get our guys/gals out safely. Hope I'm wrong this time (again.)

Quote:

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Quote:

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Sounds like Russia knows it's over and is now going to try and negotiate keeping its two bases in whatever ruling arrangement comes out of this.

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Understand that they don't want to just walk away from those bases, but due to the Ukrainian situation they're not really in a position to do much about it if the new boss(es) don't want to play ball.

agent-maroon said:

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Quote:

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Quote:

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Sounds like Russia knows it's over and is now going to try and negotiate keeping its two bases in whatever ruling arrangement comes out of this.

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Understand that they don't want to just walk away from those bases, but due to the Ukrainian situation they're not really in a position to do much about it if the new boss(es) don't want to play ball.

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True. We shall see.

Warlords always have a price (well, so do all politicians I guess), but kicking the Russians and Iranians out of Syria now isn't a bad thing, in and of itself. It also limits the Russian's ability to project military power down into Africa (though Egypt is an ally of theirs also).

We pay de facto warlords in Africa for basing rights/permission monthly, and still send monthly cash payments to the Taliban, for instance.

LMCane said:

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"As a matter of domestic law, U.S. 'defeat ISIS' activities are authorized by the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force," the State Department spokesperson told Newsweek. "We also have specific domestic statutory authorities that authorize DOD to provide support to the SDF's 'defeat ISIS' operations."

"Those authorities are found in certain provisions of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, the Defense Department's appropriations act and certain security cooperation authorities," the spokesperson added.

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Yes. Forever War. That's the point.

There is no sane moral/ethical/philosophical basis for an authorization issued 24 years ago to be a blank check for wars today. Given the demographics of the fighters in the Middle East, we are using this authorization to commit war today on fighters who weren't even born when the authorization was issued.

Understood. Given that their current financial situation is likely just as bad as their ability to project force, this should stress test the russian's "good faith" negotiating skills. Doubt that they can make a good deal without having a gun to their head while making "an offer they can't refuse".

Why is that part of the world always a cluster ****?

What the hell is wrong with those people?

God forbid they just get along and be peaceful.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/idf-says-it-is-aiding-un-forces-to-repel-attack-on-post-on-syrian-side-of-golan/

Israel helping UN repel attack from Syrian Rebels on Syrian side in Golan Heights.

Israel was bolstering troops on its Syrian border for cases like this

Erogan speaks. Let the Syrains decide their country now.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/turkeys-erdogan-says-there-is-now-a-new-reality-in-syria/

The Fall Guy said:

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Erogan speaks. Let the Syrains decide their country now.

https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/turkeys-erdogan-says-there-is-now-a-new-reality-in-syria/

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That's funny as he is directly trying to gain control and influence over it. I guess Turkey controlling it is better than Iran and Russia. I guess. Maybe.

Quote:

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"There is now a new reality in Syria, politically and diplomatically. And Syria belongs to Syrians with all its ethnic, sectarian and religious elements," Erdogan says in a speech in the southern Turkish city of Gaziantep. "The people of Syria are the ones who will decide the future of their own country."

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wannaggie said:

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LMCane said:

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"As a matter of domestic law, U.S. 'defeat ISIS' activities are authorized by the 2001 Authorization for Use of Military Force," the State Department spokesperson told Newsweek. "We also have specific domestic statutory authorities that authorize DOD to provide support to the SDF's 'defeat ISIS' operations."

"Those authorities are found in certain provisions of the annual National Defense Authorization Act, the Defense Department's appropriations act and certain security cooperation authorities," the spokesperson added.

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Yes. Forever War. That's the point.

There is no sane moral/ethical/philosophical basis for an authorization issued 24 years ago to be a blank check for wars today. Given the demographics of the fighters in the Middle East, we are using this authorization to commit war today on fighters who weren't even born when the authorization was issued.

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I think I forgot about this. That is insane and a total end around to the Constitution and abdication of Congress's authority.

These guys look well equipped and well funded.

#Syria: rebel forces have seized control of the strategic town of al-Saan.

This means the road between #Hama and the eastern junction of Ithriyah is now cut. Regime counter-offensive on Aleppo is becoming impossible at this point. pic.twitter.com/KZnCfw2GUo

— Thomas van Linge (@ThomasVLinge) December 4, 2024

“SYRIAN REBELS”
1. They are not ‘Syrians’, they are foreigners from various Arab, Euro and West Asian countries;

2. They are not ‘Rebels’, they’re terrorists trained by Turkey/Israelis/US. They are ISIS/AlNusra/AlQaeda now named HTS;#Syria #Aleppo
pic.twitter.com/g2tJsU1MVB

— OverHeads (@BeeyongSison) December 1, 2024

Point 1 of that random tweet by random twitter user "Overheads" is just not true. Just looking through his prior tweets he may be better off in a mental institution.

These fighters are Syrian. Their overarching stated goal is Syrian nationalism. HTS has a policy of not aligning with non-Syrian fighters and militias. They don't want the US there. They don't want Iran there. They don't want foreign jihadi groups there. Do they have some outside help and equipment? Certainly. But these are not Europeans or people coming to fight from Arab countries. Their worldview is that outsiders screwed Syria up in the first place and they don't want them there.

Al-Nusra was once a branch of AQ but split from AQ in Iraq when that group morphed into ISIS and went to war against them. In forming HTS, they purged the remaining AQ elements and morphed into a Syrian nationalist group with slightly less extreme Islamist views. Still Islamists. Still extremists. Not AQ or ISIS.

The speed of which HTS has risen is unnatural unless they had help from outside groups like the CIA/MI6/Massoud. In a very short amount of time multiple factions that have never played well together are working side by side, they are extremely savvy in politics, soldiers are well equipped, and their logistics is at par with western countries. To gain this much territory in a short amount of time requires a ton of supply assets, mainly fuel, weapons, and food, which the East has shown they don't understand.

Is funding HTS worth taking down Assad and reorganizing the Middle East? Is this war and the war in Ukraine worth Russias assets getting bled and losing a key naval port in the Middle East? I think the fact that China is sitting back is telling.

There are some geopolitical geniuses in the CIA but the US has shown over and over again that we excel at making things worse (enter the screwing up the end game quote from Charlie Wilson). We thought we were helping the world by our actions in Iraq but we ended up creating a bigger monster in ISIS. Now if ISIS has turned into HTS and shown to have developed into what we are seeing that is scary.

Trump's take today on Syria probably makes sense to post here;

Quote:

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Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up in Ukraine, and with the loss there of over 600,000 soldiers, seems incapable of stopping this literal march through Syria, a country they have protected for years. This is where former President Obama refused to honor his commitment of protecting the RED LINE IN THE SAND, and all hell broke out, with Russia stepping in. But now they are, like possibly Assad himself, being forced out, and it may actually be the best thing that can happen to them. There was never much of a benefit in Syria for Russia, other than to make Obama look really stupid. In any event, Syria is a mess, but is not our friend, & THE UNITED STATES SHOULD HAVE NOTHING TO DO WITH IT. THIS IS NOT OUR FIGHT. LET IT PLAY OUT. DO NOT GET INVOLVED!

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Opposition fighters in Syria, in an unprecedented move, have totally taken over numerous cities, in a highly coordinated offensive, and are now on the outskirts of Damascus, obviously preparing to make a very big move toward taking out Assad. Russia, because they are so tied up…

— Donald J. Trump (@realDonaldTrump) December 7, 2024

(Bonus take is John Rocker's accurate, yet profane summation).

Another Arab spring is blooming.

First prisons in the Damascus countryside have been freed. pic.twitter.com/AA5b8VwUn3

— (((Tendar))) (@Tendar) December 7, 2024

We already know Turkey is backing this.

Mostly agree with the sentiments Trump posted, but russia still have those naval bases so they did have a reason to be there besides obama.

agent-maroon said:

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Mostly agree with the sentiments Trump posted, but russia still have those naval bases so they did have a reason to be there besides obama.

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Saw that they pulled out of those bases now 100%

FriscoKid said:

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agent-maroon said:

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Mostly agree with the sentiments Trump posted, but russia still have those naval bases so they did have a reason to be there besides obama.

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Saw that they pulled out of those bases now 100%

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Link? That's huge if true.

WSJ saying Assad is in Damascus. Hoo boy.

Flavius Agximus said:

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samurai_science said:

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We should support Assad, Syria was a lot better before radicals tried to take over. DIctators in the Middle East keeps it a lot safer and stable.

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Came here to say exactly that. The vapid policies of Clinton and Obama removing Mubarak and Ghaddafi and undermining Assad have led only to misery and chaos, not to mention waves of refugees in Europe. Fortunately the Egyptian army was strong enough to remove Morsi after a year, but Syria and Libya are still basket cases.

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Why do we think the US actually wants stability? Serious question to think through.

Assad is playing the "Protect the Christians card"

Another initiative saw Assad dispatch a senior Christian leader to meet Hungarian President Viktor Orban to relay what he sees as an existential threat to Syria's Christian minority if Islamist rebels prevail, according to other people familiar with the plan. The intention was that Orban, a Trump ally, would convey this danger to the incoming US president

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2024-12-07/syria-s-besieged-assad-makes-overtures-to-us-in-bid-to-survive