I guess the Kurds control a lot of the wells/fields, but the pipelines/ports etc. all run thru Isis/Al Qaeda (HTS) areas.

Interesting map on who controls the oil and gas infrastructure in Syria after fall of Assad @MeesEnergy pic.twitter.com/FPVhVF2Ym6

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) December 13, 2024

I had a chuckle at the "US deconfliction zone" semi-circle down at the bottom. Great job, team Biden.

Does Israel have oil? I wonder if they'll make a grab for oil?

nortex97 said:

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I guess the Kurds control a lot of the wells/fields, but the pipelines/ports etc. all run thru Isis/Al Qaeda (HTS) areas.

Interesting map on who controls the oil and gas infrastructure in Syria after fall of Assad @MeesEnergy pic.twitter.com/FPVhVF2Ym6

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) December 13, 2024

I had a chuckle at the "US deconfliction zone" semi-circle down at the bottom. Great job, team Biden.

---

Why isn't the semi-circle a red line? The Islamist's won't know to not cross it.

agsalaska said:

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titan said:

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That is your real finale. Let's just hope that Syria doesn't become another Islamist Afghanistan, or we may be wishing that Turkey fulfills its dream of "reclaiming Anatolia / Asia Minor" and takes over instead.

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I hope not too. I think Syria has more going for it than Afghanistan. Syria's people are far more liberal than Afghanistan's. At one time this century Allepo was at least a region wide tourist city with world class artisans and such. Damascus is/was/is a modern Capitol . Afghanistan is a lot more primitive.

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Ah, but as we have seen, it doesn't take very long for a very regressive regime to degrade a modern place. Syria becoming an Islamist stronghold is a nightmare that the neocons were too blockheaded to realize is worse than any standard Mideast dictator. They haven't learned a thing from Iraq or Egypt's close-call.

Right now thinking if that starts to happen its in all's interest that Turkey simply expand greatly its present domains.

(Also, remember Afghanistan too, used to be quite different ----though agree it did not have as far to fall back once the Taliban took over)

True.

Happened to Iran too though that was almost 50 years ago now.

Let's hope not.

BQ78 said:

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Why aren't they pulling out and leaving that equipment behind?

They need to sit at the feet of Joe Biden and obtain some of his foreign policy wisdom.

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That's a Babylon Bee headline in the making.

So apt.

Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

DanielDay said:

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Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

---

Great synopsis of being absurdly short-sighted.

Authoritarians in the M.E. are the lesser of evils compared to Sharia Law.

Syria will be extremely lucky if they come out of this with better rule. Hopefully, they will but almost all of history says they won't.

Stop it. Decades of authoritarian rule in the ME has led to the extremists. We should support, directly or indirectly, keeping populations under bondage? Our most noble export is democracy. If the next rulers also create problems, fine they're up next to be deposed.

I just don't see Syria as it was remaining the same, border-wise. It will likely be balkanized within the next several years.

Its a futility. The "decades of authoritarian" misses the point. Authoritarian rule isn't even a negative
in the Middle East. They expect a hard hand. What Muslims there do resent, is injustice. A ruler is
expected to be just. (Not by the American definition of it though --- but Islamic).

There is really no point to the "forever wars" trying to promote democracy. What you should do is work with the better Arab rulers as they arise, and try to bring out the best in them. Many Ottoman sultans and Turkish Presidents fit this type. Arguably Sadat was an example too. And so on.

Exactly. It's simply American hubris that assumes everyone else wants what we want.

YouBet said:

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DanielDay said:

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Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

---

Great synopsis of being absurdly short-sighted.

Authoritarians in the M.E. are the lesser of evils compared to Sharia Law.

Syria will be extremely lucky if they come out of this with better rule. Hopefully, they will but almost all of history says they won't.

---

When those authoritarian rulers create an axis with the ultimate extremists in Iran and allow their country be used to train and equip extremists like Hezbollah to destabilize the democracy next door in Lebanon for the purpose of pursuing real genocide against Jews in Israel, they are not the lesser of the evils. The "extremists" taking over Syria hate Iran, they hate Russia, and they hate Hezbollah, so no matter what else they do in Syria, the outcome should be better for those living next door.

txags92 said:

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YouBet said:

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DanielDay said:

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Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

---

Great synopsis of being absurdly short-sighted.

Authoritarians in the M.E. are the lesser of evils compared to Sharia Law.

Syria will be extremely lucky if they come out of this with better rule. Hopefully, they will but almost all of history says they won't.

---

When those authoritarian rulers create an axis with the ultimate extremists in Iran and allow their country be used to train and equip extremists like Hezbollah to destabilize the democracy next door in Lebanon for the purpose of pursuing real genocide against Jews in Israel, they are not the lesser of the evils. The "extremists" taking over Syria hate Iran, they hate Russia, and they hate Hezbollah, so no matter what else they do in Syria, the outcome should be better for those living next door.

---

Yeah, this version of extremism does. For now. Let's see how this plays out though.

History says regardless of which groups these Muslims happen to hate they are still 3rd world, murderous animals. However, maybe the right mix of hate is such that with this version of Islamist they will be relatively non-cancerous.

Our NATO "ally" about to create another unstable fundy muslim regime

txags92 said:

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YouBet said:

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DanielDay said:

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Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

---

Great synopsis of being absurdly short-sighted.

Authoritarians in the M.E. are the lesser of evils compared to Sharia Law.

Syria will be extremely lucky if they come out of this with better rule. Hopefully, they will but almost all of history says they won't.

---

When those authoritarian rulers create an axis with the ultimate extremists in Iran and allow their country be used to train and equip extremists like Hezbollah to destabilize the democracy next door in Lebanon for the purpose of pursuing real genocide against Jews in Israel, they are not the lesser of the evils. The "extremists" taking over Syria hate Iran, they hate Russia, and they hate Hezbollah, so no matter what else they do in Syria, the outcome should be better for those living next door.

---

The unfortunate thing is, our foreign policy was instrumental in that. Going so out of way to confront Assad even enabling ISIS (that Brennan did it outright is believed by some). At the same time driving Syria into being more Shi'ia aligned like has done with Iraq. Originally both were Ba'athist and enemies of Iran. From Saudi's point of view, they became losses to the Sunni side.

So its not exactly a validation for the ME policy --- it remains to be seen if it will work out not to create a small massacre of Christians and just the sane minded there like happened after 2013.

nortex97 said:

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I guess the Kurds control a lot of the wells/fields, but the pipelines/ports etc. all run thru Isis/Al Qaeda (HTS) areas.

Interesting map on who controls the oil and gas infrastructure in Syria after fall of Assad @MeesEnergy pic.twitter.com/FPVhVF2Ym6

— Wladimir van Wilgenburg (@vvanwilgenburg) December 13, 2024

I had a chuckle at the "US deconfliction zone" semi-circle down at the bottom. Great job, team Biden.

---

That zone was there when I went to Al Tanf in 2021. Was largely established as an American garrison under Trump.

titan said:

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txags92 said:

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YouBet said:

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DanielDay said:

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Another win for the US in beating Assad, Russia and Iran. Putin and the Ayatollahs are too worried about their own power to really give Assad much aid. Like what happened, the best they could do was offer Assad an apartment in Moscow.

We need more to keep fighting authoritarians by isolating them. More money for Ukraine especially since most of that money goes into our defense industry.

---

Great synopsis of being absurdly short-sighted.

Authoritarians in the M.E. are the lesser of evils compared to Sharia Law.

Syria will be extremely lucky if they come out of this with better rule. Hopefully, they will but almost all of history says they won't.

---

When those authoritarian rulers create an axis with the ultimate extremists in Iran and allow their country be used to train and equip extremists like Hezbollah to destabilize the democracy next door in Lebanon for the purpose of pursuing real genocide against Jews in Israel, they are not the lesser of the evils. The "extremists" taking over Syria hate Iran, they hate Russia, and they hate Hezbollah, so no matter what else they do in Syria, the outcome should be better for those living next door.

---

The unfortunate thing is, our foreign policy was instrumental in that. Going so out of way to confront Assad even enabling ISIS (that Brennan did it outright is believed by some). At the same time driving Syria into being more Shi'ia aligned like has done with Iraq. Originally both were Ba'athist and enemies of Iran. From Saudi's point of view, they became losses to the Sunni side.

So its not exactly a validation for the ME policy --- it remains to be seen if it will work out not to create a small massacre of Christians and just the sane minded there like happened after 2013.

---

Yeah, don't misunderstand me. I think our policy in the ME in general and specifically in Syria is a giant mess, and anything potentially good to come out of it is likely to be more accidental than intentional. I just see anything that pushes countries away from alliance with Iran and that drains resources from Iran's militias is likely to be more good than bad.

U.S. soldiers arrive in Kobane in northern Syria to take possession of the military bases abandoned by the Russian Army a few days ago.

Russia out
U.S. in pic.twitter.com/llvG2QNuhp

— Visegrád 24 (@visegrad24) December 15, 2024

Great, of course Biden(*) finds a way to get us further enmeshed in Syria, which is going to be a sectarian war zone in no time. Why do we need combat forces up north? What is their mission?

I saw that the Turkish embassy re-opened for the first time in many years and then as well this:

While Jolani is making TV appearances … Syria is being ripped apart further pic.twitter.com/c1Wyff3CBd

— Lord Bebo (@MyLordBebo) December 15, 2024

Why is turkey destroying the infrastructure of a country they obviously want to run and backs the group that has taken over?

I honestly have no idea at this point. All I can guess is they want to advance the sectarian strife/civil war/health crisis so that they can enter under a 'humanitarian emergency' role. Al Qaeda (HTS) is not capable of running a country.

aggiehawg said:

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I just don't see Syria as it was remaining the same, border-wise. It will likely be balkanized within the next several years.

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Quoting myself because I read an article today about using a part of Syria for the Palestinian homeland? Makes about as much sense as anything else to me.

Quote:

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Today in the Middle East, there are two potential combinations: The Palestinian people… and all that empty land in Syria. The Palestinian people need a country. Syria doesn't have one anymore.
"You got Palestinians in my Syria!"
"You got Syria on my Palestinians!"
Why not put these two great tastes together and make the new Palestinian homeland in Syria?
Jordan and Egypt won't allow the Palestinians in, because the last time they did, they tried to overthrow the government. Well, good news: In Syria, the government's already been overthrown!

---

LINK

YouBet said:

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Why is turkey destroying the infrastructure of a country they obviously want to run and backs the group that has taken over?

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At this stage have to allow for the possibility that it is mis-reported, or a Turkish error. If it is deliberate it might be for a short term battle advantage if they are conducting some kind of operation in that area.

Full Trump quote sounds very pro-Turkey:

“Turkey is a major force, by the way, and Erdogan is somebody I got along with great but he has a major military force. And he has not been worn out with war. I mean, he's built a very strong, powerful army.

Turkey is the one behind… https://t.co/CzaSGUKWyE

— Ragıp Soylu (@ragipsoylu) December 16, 2024

About right after seeing Jolani personally chauffeuring the Turkish intelligence chief thru Damascus last week.

JOLANI: THE NEW DRIVER
Jolani now playing chauffeur to Turkish intelligence chief, İbrahim Kalın, in Damascus pic.twitter.com/xTzK1hAsqX

— S p r i n t e r (@SprinterFamily) December 13, 2024

Oops.

https://www.the-sun.com/news/13102021/viral-syrian-prisoner-cnn-crew-cell-pretending/

Quote:

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THE viral "prisoner" discovered by a CNN news crew cowering in a cell was one of Assad's evil torturers, a Syrian fact-checking site has claimed.

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Trump gets it. The Turks want to be the regional power.

The overarching long-term strategic conflict in the ME is Turkey vs Iran.

What happens when Turkey and Iran become allies?

BboroAg said:

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What happens when Turkey and Iran become allies?

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That would be a ME first, wouldn't it?

They aren't really known for that, are they.

Asking legitimately.

Squadron7 said:

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BboroAg said:

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What happens when Turkey and Iran become allies?

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That would be a ME first, wouldn't it?

They aren't really known for that, are they.

Asking legitimately.

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I mean, if Sargon II hadn't really blown it…

BboroAg said:

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What happens when Turkey and Iran become allies?

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The Turks are largely Sunni, right? Erdogan is Sunni. Seems pretty unlikely that the two regional powers like that would ally.

You guys are probably right….but they might find commonality in their dislike for Israel (almost seems biblical)

Here's a really good summary of the situation:

https://open.spotify.com/episode/28Sn4Pk2ozSDIory8q66NR?si=nPvDL5zUS8amBPS-D8aF3g


Its a triggernometry episode with Thomas small. They ask him one question and he gives a 50 minute answers and what is happening, what the relatively modern history of the situation is/was, who the actors are and what he thinks it means.

I'd try to summarize but I find it impossible. I will say the guest is hopeful that there's is a pragmatic islamist movement beginning and that's better than the globalist islamist movement that we've been dealing with since the 90s. We will see. Give it a listen. Its worth it if you're interest on this topic