Some copium on California 45 and I'm inhaling. Data analyst thinks the remaining vote could end up favoring Steel. We will see how it turns out.

Two California house races remain uncalled, and it will be a minute before we know who wins.

🔴CA-13: Lean John Duarte
⚫CA-45: Toss Up

There has been no change from last week's assessment, but both races have shifted ever so slightly toward Republicans.

John Duarte (CA-13)… pic.twitter.com/hyJyOkgmvl

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) November 19, 2024

For people who can't pull up the full X post, he's saying the conditional voter registration ballots are still uncounted there and throughout the state of California those have been highly Republican. The exact number of these is not known. There are still some mail and provisional votes left to count.

All hope is not completely lost but it's still an uphill climb

Does CA have precinct based counting or does that depend on the county?

Centralized counting centers just prolong the process in my view.

Bad drops for GOP in 13 and 45.

45 was not as bad as I expected but it still resulted in another couple hundred votes for the challenger. Steel now trails by just over 300 votes. There's still some outstanding but I just don't see her coming back.

GOP now only leads by 227 in CA 19. Lead was around 2,000 this morning. This one looks lost now. The outstanding vote is still in the light blue areas.

Merced County has 3,182 uncounted ballots remaining, mostly conditional registration. Next update: Thursday by 5PM. pic.twitter.com/w3JTnBb1hI

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 20, 2024

The conditional registration voters have favored republicans, so they've got that going for them. These are people who registered the day of the election.

It's unreal how close these races are. Hope is a good thing I guess.

UntoldSpirit said:

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It's unreal how close these races are. Hope is a good thing I guess.

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Not when democrats are in charge

How does trump win the popular vote and only get an extremely slim house majority, yet in 2016 he barely won and Republicans ended up with a 241-194 majority?

Biden: we have had the most extensive voter fraud organization since 2019

jjtrcka22 said:

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How does trump win the popular vote and only get an extremely slim house majority, yet in 2016 he barely won and Republicans ended up with a 241-194 majority?

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Redistricting. States gerrymandered the **** out of all of their districts following 2020. NY gerrymandered again after 2022 to drop even more GOP districts. There are only something like 30 real swing districts now.

Thanks for the explanation. Will Republicans ever gain ground back to their side, or is this pretty much the new normal?

The 2020 census had some bad counting "errors" that resulted in faulty data being used for state by state district allocation. These numbers resulted in a net +8 congressional and elector seats going to Democrat dominated states.

The 2030 census projections indicate that correction of this plus population shifts could move that number back towards Republican states by about net +12-16 or so from today, so there is that for long term.

The already acknowledged errors should be mandated to be fixed immediately. They should have been fixed before this election but at a minimum need to be fixed prior to the '26 primaries through the use any and all legal means at our disposal.

jjtrcka22 said:

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How does trump win the popular vote and only get an extremely slim house majority, yet in 2016 he barely won and Republicans ended up with a 241-194 majority?

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The 2018 midterms killed republican led state legislatures. These legislatures in turn gerrymandered the districts.

The GOP did the same after the red wave 2010 elections.

It's just the harsh reality of politics. The winners get those benefits.

It has been awhile since an update. What is latest on CA 13 and 45?

We are gonna flip 2 more House seats in California …. #CA13 and #CA45 are both within 500 votes!

Let’s go Democrats — cure ballots and Count Every Vote. And don’t you EVER think your vote doesn’t matter!

— Christine Pelosi (@sfpelosi) November 22, 2024

stop me if you've heard this one...Orange County's #CA45 update adds 959 votes that break 52%/48% for Democrat Derek Tran, netting him 39 votes to increase his lead over Republican Michelle Steel to 519 votes. https://t.co/0x14bM4JQl

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 23, 2024

Orange County, CA unprocessed votes: 21,907 (-4,882 vs last)

10,800 Conditional Registration/Provisional (-3,252)
3,209 VBM Early (-471)
2,954 Dropbox Final Day (-434)
2,674 Dropbox Early (-392)
1,173 VBM Vote Center (-172)
766 VBM Late (-112)

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 23, 2024

The conditional registration vote in California has tended to the GOP favorable which is why this race has not yet been called. I'm not holding my breath though.

duplicate

San Joaquin County processed 1,159 ballots today and has 9,104 remaining countywide plus 5,295 that need signature cures.

Next San Joaquin County update will be on Monday. pic.twitter.com/1mrlmyYqpr

— Rob Pyers (@rpyers) November 23, 2024

Maybe these races will be called right before the 2026 election.