WILL UPDATE OP ON A REGULAR BASIS - Last update 11/12 715pm
Please note all calls on this thread are from the Associated Press. Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill is calling races a lot more aggressively.
Update 11/12 715pm
California with a 5pm PT drop. I don't like how things are trending in a few of these districts:
Current counts are as follows:
As it stands now, the AP has:
GOP: 214
DEM: 206
Need 218 for a majority.
GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 4
IA 1 - Called by other outlets
CO 8 - Dem has conceded. AP still refusing to call.
CA 22 - Called by other outlets
AZ 6 - Looking mathematically difficult for Dem to come back. Called by other outlets.
This gets them to 218 AND THE MAJORITY.
Currently heavy lean GOP : 1
AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.
This gets them to 219.
Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 3
CA 13 - GOP lead shrinking
CA 41 - GOP candidate has declared victory
CA 45 - GOP lead shrinks again to 2%. Hopefully Steel pulls this one out. Math should look better from here.
If these results hold this gets to 222.
Toss ups leaning Dem: 0
CA 21 - Dem gained big in last update. No longer a toss-up IMO.
ME 2 - Dem lead is 726 votes, heading for a hand recount.
IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 222
DEM 213
DDHQ thinks we are looking at 220-215 which means they think CA 13 and CA 45 may go to the Dems. I refuse to give up there.
Please note all calls on this thread are from the Associated Press. Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill is calling races a lot more aggressively.
Update 11/12 715pm
California with a 5pm PT drop. I don't like how things are trending in a few of these districts:
- CA 45 continues to trend closer. Not a good development. Steel's lead decreased by almost 1,700 votes - down to 2,272. The last drop from OC favored the Dem. Steel still leads in OC by 2% but the lead was slightly less than 4% before the last drop. This is the most populous county in the district. 87% in and most of the outstanding are in OC. Unfortunately the last several drops there have favored the Dem.
- Nothing new yet in CA 41 but the GOP incumbent has declared victory. Scrawny looking ginger Dem does not concede.
- CA 13 is also trending closer. GOP incumbent John Duarte is now only up by 2,708 votes.
- Still waiting on Alaska.
Current counts are as follows:
As it stands now, the AP has:
GOP: 214
DEM: 206
Need 218 for a majority.
GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 4
IA 1 - Called by other outlets
CO 8 - Dem has conceded. AP still refusing to call.
CA 22 - Called by other outlets
AZ 6 - Looking mathematically difficult for Dem to come back. Called by other outlets.
This gets them to 218 AND THE MAJORITY.
Currently heavy lean GOP : 1
AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.
This gets them to 219.
Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 3
CA 13 - GOP lead shrinking
CA 41 - GOP candidate has declared victory
CA 45 - GOP lead shrinks again to 2%. Hopefully Steel pulls this one out. Math should look better from here.
If these results hold this gets to 222.
Toss ups leaning Dem: 0
CA 21 - Dem gained big in last update. No longer a toss-up IMO.
ME 2 - Dem lead is 726 votes, heading for a hand recount.
IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 222
DEM 213
DDHQ thinks we are looking at 220-215 which means they think CA 13 and CA 45 may go to the Dems. I refuse to give up there.