*** OFFICIAL House Race Thread ***

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AtticusMatlock
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10:07a, 11/6/24
WILL UPDATE OP ON A REGULAR BASIS - Last update 11/12 715pm

Please note all calls on this thread are from the Associated Press. Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill is calling races a lot more aggressively.

Update 11/12 715pm

California with a 5pm PT drop. I don't like how things are trending in a few of these districts:

  • CA 45 continues to trend closer. Not a good development. Steel's lead decreased by almost 1,700 votes - down to 2,272. The last drop from OC favored the Dem. Steel still leads in OC by 2% but the lead was slightly less than 4% before the last drop. This is the most populous county in the district. 87% in and most of the outstanding are in OC. Unfortunately the last several drops there have favored the Dem.
  • Nothing new yet in CA 41 but the GOP incumbent has declared victory. Scrawny looking ginger Dem does not concede.
  • CA 13 is also trending closer. GOP incumbent John Duarte is now only up by 2,708 votes.
  • Still waiting on Alaska.


Current counts are as follows:

As it stands now, the AP has:

GOP: 214
DEM: 206

Need 218 for a majority.

GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 4
IA 1 - Called by other outlets
CO 8 - Dem has conceded. AP still refusing to call.
CA 22 - Called by other outlets
AZ 6 - Looking mathematically difficult for Dem to come back. Called by other outlets.


This gets them to 218 AND THE MAJORITY.

Currently heavy lean GOP : 1
AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.


This gets them to 219.

Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 3

CA 13 - GOP lead shrinking
CA 41 - GOP candidate has declared victory
CA 45 - GOP lead shrinks again to 2%. Hopefully Steel pulls this one out. Math should look better from here.

If these results hold this gets to 222.

Toss ups leaning Dem: 0
CA 21 - Dem gained big in last update. No longer a toss-up IMO.
ME 2 - Dem lead is 726 votes, heading for a hand recount.


IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 222
DEM 213

DDHQ thinks we are looking at 220-215 which means they think CA 13 and CA 45 may go to the Dems. I refuse to give up there.
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AtticusMatlock
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10:09a, 11/6/24
Follow here:

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/11/05/us/elections/results-house.html

TX 34
>95% of vote in:
Gonzalez (D) 102,598
Flores (R) 97,465
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rgag12
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10:10a, 11/6/24
AG
IA-1 going to come down to a handful of votes, again. How'd you like to be a voter in that district.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to rgag12 • 10:14a, 11/6/24

IA 1
Miller-Meeks (R) 203,899
Bohannan (D) 203,486
98% in

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AtticusMatlock
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10:35a, 11/6/24
GOP lost a few races in NY due to redistricting. Need to flip a few back and do well to gain control.

CURRENTLY CALLED:
GOP 198
DEM 177

GOP WIN CERTAIN: 1
WA 4 (Two GOP in race Wash does it weird)

GOP WIN HIGHLY LIKELY (leading with >95% in or in red districts): 14
AZ 2
CA 40
AZ 5
AZ 8
CO 3
CO 5
WA 5
WI 3
VA 2
MI 10
NE 2
PA 10
PA 8 (flip)
PA 7 (flip)

This gets them to 213.

Currently lead/lean GOP : 9
AK 1
AZ 1
CA 13
CA 22
CA 27
CA 41
CA 45
CA 47 (would be a surprise outcome per NYT)
IA 1

IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:
GOP 221
DEM 214


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AtticusMatlock
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10:43a, 11/6/24
AZ 6 is a GOP seat that the Dem is currently barely winning. This is an area which Trump will likely pull through when they finally count ED vote. In 2020 we saw the House races in AZ swing to the GOP as more vote came in. Only 57% in.

Looking at all the other races, I don't see much of a chance for more GOP pickups. Highest they'll get is 222 IMO, and that's with winning the seats they are currently leading + AZ 6.
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TAMUallen
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10:43a, 11/6/24
AG
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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 10:48a, 11/6/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
AZ 6 is a GOP seat that the Dem is currently barely winning. This is an area which Trump will likely pull through when they finally count ED vote. In 2020 we saw the House races in AZ swing to the GOP as more vote came in. Only 57% in.

Looking at all the other races, I don't see much of a chance for more GOP pickups. Highest they'll get is 222 IMO, and that's with winning the seats they are currently leading + AZ 6.
Thank You for all this great analysis. It's exactly what I was looking for. Great job.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 11:12a, 11/6/24
Yeah unfortunately following the recent redistricting there are barely any swing districts anymore.

These wild shifts we've seen with 30+ seat majorities are a thing of the past in the House. An election like this prior to 2020 would have probably swung the House to a big GOP majority. Instead, the data analytics people have made sure that big gains statewide will still only affect margins and not ultimate results in most districts.

Trump gained by around 13 points in NY state over 2020 and the GOP *lost* House seats there. Insane.
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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:12a, 11/6/24
AG
Just a note - you have WA 4 up there twice. I think one of them should be WA 5.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to UntoldSpirit • 11:14a, 11/6/24
Fixed, thanks!
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aggiemark99
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:17a, 11/6/24
Good explanation. I was wondering how there weren't more house seats gained, but makes sense.
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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:25a, 11/6/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Yeah unfortunately following the recent redistricting there are barely any swing districts anymore.

These wild shifts we've seen with 30+ seat majorities are a thing of the past in the House. An election like this prior to 2020 would have probably swung the House to a big GOP majority. Instead, the data analytics people have made sure that big gains statewide will still only affect margins and not ultimate results in most districts.

Trump gained by around 13 points in NY state over 2020 and the GOP *lost* House seats there. Insane.
Yes that is a great observation that makes good sense. I guess that means the House is going to be a toss up every election and will come down to a very small number of districts.
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SwigAg11
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11:31a, 11/6/24
AG
DDHQ has it at a 94.7% chance the House will be 223-212 for Republicans.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:33a, 11/6/24
That's kind of how I'm seeing it too. The California vote is going to come in slow but if 2020 is an indication it is not going to hurt the Republicans. They've gone all in in mail-in balloting so you're not going to see the huge swing toward the Democrats late. Generally the same ratios will hold up and the GOP is up in those competitive districts.
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nortex97
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In reply to TAMUallen • 11:33a, 11/6/24
AG
Up to 95% (I am not tracking specifics):

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AtticusMatlock
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11:41a, 11/6/24
Should also be noted that New York redistricted again after 2022. There was a lot of dispute in how they were going to redistrict because the Democrats initially passed a fair redistricting plan then decided later on they wanted to gerrymander. It went all the way through the court system in New York and liberal judges eventually settled on this map.

One that just happened to be gerrymandered to favor the Democrats even though state law says they weren't allowed to do it.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:46a, 11/6/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Should also be noted that New York redistricted again after 2022. There was a lot of dispute in how they were going to redistrict because the Democrats initially passed a fair redistricting plan then decided later on they wanted to gerrymander. It went all the way through the court system in New York and liberal judges eventually settled on this map.

One that just happened to be gerrymandered to favor the Democrats even though state law says they weren't allowed to do it.
I live in upstate NY, and I knew this was coming.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:50a, 11/6/24
At first glance it looks like they changed the upstate map to take away the competitive districts and split it so that Democrats would win always two seats to the GOP one.

The way they split up Long Island was even more evil.

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UntoldSpirit
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11:51a, 11/6/24
AG
MI 10
Wi 3
Called for Republicans
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NE PA Ag
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12:06p, 11/6/24
Need my district, PA-8 to be officially called already! Will be a flip to red! I think Decision Desk called it...maybe there is a recount being ordered? Bresnahan is up 2 pts with 99% counted.
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AtticusMatlock
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12:07p, 11/6/24
Kim is completely dominatinh CA 40.

Was expected to be a tight race but she's up 14% with almost 70% of the vote in.
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munch96
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12:29p, 11/6/24
AG
TX-18 goes from Sheila Jackson Lee to Sylvester Turner.....

great, one grifter gets replaced by another...
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Aggies1322
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12:33p, 11/6/24
AG
Still no call for NE 2.. Bacon definitely going to win. Should be +1 for Rs.
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AtticusMatlock
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12:43p, 11/6/24
OP updated
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ttha_aggie_09
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12:48p, 11/6/24
SwigAg11
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12:49p, 11/6/24
AG
As of right now, Miller-Meeks is down over 1k votes in IA1.
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Aggies1322
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:51p, 11/6/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
As of right now, Miller-Meeks is down over 1k votes in IA1.

NBC shows her up ~800
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Aggies1322 • 12:52p, 11/6/24
AG
Aggies1322 said:
SwigAg11 said:
As of right now, Miller-Meeks is down over 1k votes in IA1.

NBC shows him up ~800
Huh, different results on different sites then.

Edit: My apologies, but DDHQ, which I've been using, hasn't updated their results. CNN&NBC have Miller-Meeks up ~800 as you said.
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Legal Custodian
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12:54p, 11/6/24
AG
Thanks for this thread and updating the OP
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Aggies1322
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 12:55p, 11/6/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Aggies1322 said:
SwigAg11 said:
As of right now, Miller-Meeks is down over 1k votes in IA1.

NBC shows him up ~800
Huh, different results on different sites then.

Edit: My apologies, but DDHQ, which I've been using, hasn't updated their results. CNN&NBC have Miller-Meeks up ~800 as you said.

Making sure I wasn't looking at old data. Would be great to hold on in that race.
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AtticusMatlock
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2:52p, 11/6/24
Minor update
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titan
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2:57p, 11/6/24
S

Does Speaker Johnson have some inside knowledge on the makeup of the remaining races districts or something? He seems very assured they will get/retain the House. If any might know, its him.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to titan • 3:02p, 11/6/24
titan said:

Does Speaker Johnson have some inside knowledge on the makeup of the remaining races districts or something? He seems very assured they will get/retain the House. If any might know, its him.

There are only something like 22 ultracompetitive races this year due to redistricting and gerrymandering. Much easier to track votes and keep up with everything this time.

The GOP CA districts look good and most will likely win by larger margins than in 2022. AZ will look good once they finally start running the ED vote through their machines.

I think the three PA close races are going to be called very soon for the GOP.

To put it the way the NYT does, on top of the five obvious GOP wins that have yet to be called due to counting delays there are 35 uncalled races that could technically go either way. The GOP has to win 13 of those to win the House. They are ahead in 17 and will likely gain the lead in an 18th.
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AtticusMatlock
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3:31p, 11/6/24
Alaska update:

With 76% of the vote in, GOP Nick Begich has 49.7% of the vote.

He needs to hit 50% to avoid the ranked choice runoff with Democrat incumbent Mary Peltola.

The third party candidate has 3.9% of the vote.

FWIW it looks like Alaskans are about to narrowly approve a measure to get rid of ranked choice voting and go back to political primaries.
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