Full update:WILL UPDATE OP ON A REGULAR BASIS - Last update 11/12 1AMPlease note all calls on this thread are from the Associated Press. Decision Desk Headquarters/The Hill is calling races a lot more aggressively.
Small Midnight update:BASED ON HIGHLY LIKELY RESULTS AND OTHER MEDIA CALLS, THE GOP HAS SECURED THE MAJORITY- AZ 6 continues to look better for the GOP incumbent. Lead doubled in latest ballot drop. Now leads by 4,905 (1.3%) with estimated 87% of the vote in. Dem still technically mathematically alive depending on the results from Pima which is still only 88% reported. Doing extrapolation math, Pima has about 40k votes left to count. Dem is leading by 7% there. My math skills are subpar but I'm looking at only a 3,000ish possible gain there. Still have some votes outstanding in red counties. GOP *should* win this one. Has been called by other outlets.
- CA 27 is lost. The latest ballot dump this afternoon showed the Dem lead grow again. GOP incumbent Mike Garcia will be defeated by his well-funded corporate shill opponent. Flip for the Dems. DDHQ has already called it. This was a winnable race in a district that the GOP carried handily in 2022. Will have to look into it but my guess is funding was extremely weighted to the Dem advantage.
- CA 45 is still maddening. GOP candidate Michelle Steel losing ground with every ballot dump. Her lead over the last three days has gone from 9,360 to 6,901, to 3,908 as of now. However, the Dem may have run out of good dumps. By my rudimentary spreadsheet math, the Dem stands to gain another 587 votes in LA County, but Steel *should* gain about 2,000 votes in Orange County if current percentages hold. That is not a guarantee but hopefully will be the case.
- CA 41 still looks good. Has been called by other outlets but not the AP.
Current counts are as follows:
As it stands now, the AP has:GOP: 214
DEM: 204
Need 218 for a majority.
GOP HIGHLY LIKELY TO WIN (have already been called by other media): 4IA 1 - Called by other outlets
CO 8 - Dem has conceded. AP still refusing to call.
CA 22 - Called by other outlets
AZ 6 - Looking mathematically difficult for Dem to come back. Called by other outlets.
This gets them to 218 AND THE MAJORITY.Currently heavy lean GOP : 1AK 1 - Likely going to ranked choice, GOP *should* be favored in that scenario. Hyper-conservative / libertarian 3rd party is in 3rd place.
This gets them to 219.Lean GOP with slight chance of D comeback: 3CA 13 - GOP leads by 3% but is now slightly smaller.
CA 41 - GOP leads by 3% - looking much more like a safe GOP win here but will keep it in lean territory for now.
CA 45 - GOP lead shrinks again to 2%. Hopefully Steel pulls this one out. Math should look better from here.
This gets to 222.Toss ups leaning Dem: 2CA 21 - Dem leads by 1,303 votes with 63% in (no new ballots since last updates) 63% in
ME 2 - Dem lead is 726 votes, heading for a hand recount.
IF THESE RESULTS HOLD:GOP 222
DEM 213
