*** OFFICIAL House Race Thread ***

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jpb1999
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 10:24a, 11/8/24
AG
Just FYI, ABC (not sure about the AP) has called another race for the GOP for a total of 212. Right now they have it 212 to 203.

Also you have listed 3 highly likely for GOP, but only list 2. And you total GOP to 213, but if 3 are added to 211, that takes GOP to 214.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to jpb1999 • 10:57a, 11/8/24
Thanks, I'll update it. That number should have been 2 and not 3 after my prior update.

I'm still seeing AP at 211 per their website.
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AtticusMatlock
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11:08a, 11/8/24
Updated. AP still has GOP at 211. Trying to be consistent with one source of "called races."

  • AP *should* be calling NE 2 today for GOP. Already called by ABC and some other outlets.
  • GOP incumbent in CA 22 is dominating
  • AZ 6 ballot update has Dem regaining a slight lead. Back and forth in this one down to the wire. Outstanding vote location seem to favor a Dem win but we'll see. Pima County (Tucson) is only 75% in and this is big Dem territory.
  • Keep an eye on CA 47 for a potential flip to GOP. Dems gerrymandered Orange County into two different districts but most of it is in this one. GOP GOTV effort was big here. Dems won this race by 3.5% in 2022 but Katie Porter is not running this time. Currently a miniscule Dem margin.
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Red Fishing Ag93
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11:23a, 11/8/24
AG
https://images.app.goo.gl/zZKoVZGMyvbXeaH46
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Enviroag02
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11:27a, 11/8/24
AG
With such a margin of defeat in the President's race combined with losing the Senate, it's pretty clear that the Democrats delayed counting so they could mobilize the cheat machine in order to avoid a total Republican take over. They can't allow that at all costs. Something has to be done about this!
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jja79
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In reply to CrockerAg98 • 11:37a, 11/8/24
AG
CrockerAg98 said:
jja79 said:
aggiehawg said:
FTAG 2000 said:
maxag42 said:
How are they still not done counting??


Waiting on runbeck to produce enough ballots in AZ, and the culinary union to make enough for NV.
Sadly, that is more likely than not.


This was my first general election in Arizona and I now have even less confidence in election integrity than I did before.
Yeah, not a whole lot here to give you the warm and fuzzies. Blockbuster was more vigilant about their drop box than any polling site I've seen around here.


I early voted at ASU Gateway and on my way in 2 women without badges or lanyards on were loading ballot boxes into a suburban with California plates.
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AtticusMatlock
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12:00p, 11/8/24
Another massive ballot drop in IA 1.

One vote to the Dem. Miller-Meeks leads by 797.

Oh wait sorry, the Dem gained two votes. Miller-Meeks sits at 797 ahead.
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Bayou City
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In reply to Enviroag02 • 12:09p, 11/8/24
All all costs…Um not really. Everything out is AZ and CA and that's because of their rules. Everything east has been called by at least 1 agency.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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Bayou City
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 12:16p, 11/8/24
It's been called by DDHQ
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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80sGeorge
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1:44p, 11/8/24
AG
DDHQ still projecting 222 for team red
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AtticusMatlock
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1:49p, 11/8/24
The AP is so weird with their calls. They called McCormick Senate race before anyone else but are way behind in these house races when the outcomes seem far more certain.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to jja79 • 1:52p, 11/8/24
AG
Quote:
I early voted at ASU Gateway and on my way in 2 women without badges or lanyards on were loading ballot boxes into a suburban with California plates.
Get a picture or the plate number?
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AtticusMatlock
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2:14p, 11/8/24
NE 2 update:
  • Should be seeing a post of about 6,675 mail ballots by "4 or 5pm"
  • There are still 5,560 provisional ballots. These are ballots filled out by voters who didn't have ID with them at the time of voting or mail ballots with mismatched signatures. Voters have until Tuesday to bring an ID to confirm their ballot. This is the same process Texas uses, btw.
  • 2,600 "resolution" ballots. These are ballots the machines could not read due to stray marks, crossed out selections, a misread, etc. Adjudicated by bipartisan teams, ballots duplicated by hand and put into the machine.

So a total of 14,835. We should see about half of that counted and made public today.
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jja79
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:22p, 11/8/24
AG
Wasn't thinking that quickly.
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WolfCall
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3:54p, 11/8/24
AG
It didn't seem like the percentage of votes counted in Alaska had changed much today - stuck around 78%. Reason for holdup there?
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SwigAg11
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In reply to WolfCall • 4:18p, 11/8/24
AG
WolfCall said:
It didn't seem like the percentage of votes counted in Alaska had changed much today - stuck around 78%. Reason for holdup there?

The state is 4 times the size of Texas with so many outlying communities. Just the logistics alone to handle that state is mind-boggling. Alaska always takes time to certify their elections.
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AtticusMatlock
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5:22p, 11/8/24
Nebraska 2 finally called.
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 5:22p, 11/8/24
And then after that they have to go down the ranked choice if Bergich doesn't hit 50%.
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samurai_science
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5:38p, 11/8/24
What about the Rank Choice in Alaska did they get enough to get rid of it?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to samurai_science • 5:45p, 11/8/24
Ballot initiative to go back to traditional process is leading narrowly.
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 6:48p, 11/8/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Updated. AP still has GOP at 211. Trying to be consistent with one source of "called races."

  • AP *should* be calling NE 2 today for GOP. Already called by ABC and some other outlets.
  • GOP incumbent in CA 22 is dominating
  • AZ 6 ballot update has Dem regaining a slight lead. Back and forth in this one down to the wire. Outstanding vote location seem to favor a Dem win but we'll see. Pima County (Tucson) is only 75% in and this is big Dem territory.
  • Keep an eye on CA 47 for a potential flip to GOP. Dems gerrymandered Orange County into two different districts but most of it is in this one. GOP GOTV effort was big here. Dems won this race by 3.5% in 2022 but Katie Porter is not running this time. Currently a miniscule Dem margin.
Ciscomani is up again in AZ 06. That district has a Cook pvi of R+3. You sure he won't pull that one out?
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jamieboy2014
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6:52p, 11/8/24
AG
On another note, this is why ranked choice voting is stupid:

https://www.themainewire.com/2024/11/breaking-maine-cd-2-race-headed-for-ranked-choice-voting-disaster-as-golden-falls-below-50/
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Bayou City
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8:38p, 11/8/24
DDHQ down to 220
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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whatthehey78
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In reply to Bayou City • 8:40p, 11/8/24
AG
Bayou City said:
DDHQ down to 220
Ole here...translation please. TIA! What/who is DDHQ and "down to 220" means??
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
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Bayou City
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In reply to jamieboy2014 • 8:44p, 11/8/24
Almost no way w the vote outstanding.
"I've lived through some terrible things in my life, some of which have actually happened."

Mark Twain
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Silvertaps
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In reply to whatthehey78 • 8:46p, 11/8/24
AG
whatthehey78 said:
Bayou City said:
DDHQ down to 220
Ole here...translation please. TIA! What/who is DDHQ and "down to 220" means??

Decision Desk HQ stating Rs at 220
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whatthehey78
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In reply to Silvertaps • 8:50p, 11/8/24
AG
Silvertaps said:
whatthehey78 said:
Bayou City said:
DDHQ down to 220
Ole here...translation please. TIA! What/who is DDHQ and "down to 220" means??

Decision Desk HQ stating Rs at 220
Thank you! So R's retain control?
Alexander, Caesar, Charlemagne, and myself founded empires; but upon what foundation did we rest the creations of our genius? Upon force! But Jesus Christ founded His upon love; and at this hour millions of men would die for Him. - Napoleon Bonaparte
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to whatthehey78 • 8:52p, 11/8/24
AG
whatthehey78 said:
Silvertaps said:
whatthehey78 said:
Bayou City said:
DDHQ down to 220
Ole here...translation please. TIA! What/who is DDHQ and "down to 220" means??

Decision Desk HQ stating Rs at 220
Thank you! So R's retain control?
They have an 80%+ chance of retaining a slight majority.
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Silvertaps
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In reply to whatthehey78 • 9:03p, 11/8/24
AG
whatthehey78 said:
Silvertaps said:
whatthehey78 said:
Bayou City said:
DDHQ down to 220
Ole here...translation please. TIA! What/who is DDHQ and "down to 220" means??

Decision Desk HQ stating Rs at 220
Thank you! So R's retain control?

DDHQ called races is Rs 216 / Ds 208.

Their prediction is Rs 220 / Ds 215 (80% chance this happens)
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AtticusMatlock
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9:03p, 11/8/24
Most likely outcome imo is still 222-213.

GOP keeping CO 8 interesting which would be a flip.
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UntoldSpirit
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 9:10p, 11/8/24
AG
Any chance at CA 47?
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jja79
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In reply to jamieboy2014 • 9:25p, 11/8/24
AG
Az 06 is a huge district including the outskirts of Tucson. All the way from Casa Grande to Duncan and Douglas and the New Mexico border. It includes the San Carlos Apache Nation which might slow things down.
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annie88
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In reply to Enviroag02 • 9:27p, 11/8/24
AG
Enviroag02 said:
With such a margin of defeat in the President's race combined with losing the Senate, it's pretty clear that the Democrats delayed counting so they could mobilize the cheat machine in order to avoid a total Republican take over. They can't allow that at all costs. Something has to be done about this!


I think it's hilarious that Arizona's Maricopa County went all in on saying how long it would be to get the results and as it turned out, they're completely irrelevant. They in Nevada still have not gotten their final counting in, but nobody gives a **** because it doesn't matter.

That just cracks me up.
Currently a happy listless vessel and deplorable. #FDEMS TRUMP 2024.
Fight Fight Fight.
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jja79
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In reply to annie88 • 9:33p, 11/8/24
AG
Unless I've missed something the senate race in Arizona isn't done and it looks like the margin is narrowing. Maricopa will probably decide that. Living in Maricopa it's amazing how corrupt and inept the democrats in high positions are.
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jamieboy2014
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In reply to jja79 • 9:45p, 11/8/24
AG
jja79 said:
Az 06 is a huge district including the outskirts of Tucson. All the way from Casa Grande to Duncan and Douglas and the New Mexico border. It includes the San Carlos Apache Nation which might slow things down.
I'm aware. I also know that it has a Cook PVI of R+3. Obviously that's still considered a swing district but I figured Ciscomani would have the incumbency advantage.
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