FireAg said:

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aggiehawg said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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blessed said:

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So GOP with 219 or 220 with CA 45 and 13 still possible? Assuming AK is GOP Nov 20.

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Alaska and Iowa put it at 220. 13 is still a toss-up that could go either way. 45 looks very rough.

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If Trump keeps cannibalizing that majority can disappear fast. Jeebus! I hope they know what they are doing. Were I in Mike Johnson's shoes, I'd be swigging Maalox and eating Tums like they were breath mints.

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I think Wiles is driving this ship, and I am quite confident they have a plan to backfill and keep the majority…

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Yeah, I agree. Surely they are being strategic enough as to not lose the majority...the need to keep the House in R control is much greater than anything these individuals could contribute in these positions.

The one that worries the most is Stefanik. I don't trust any district in the State of New York, no matter how upstate and rural it may be. I really hope Trump and Wiles are confident it will be filled with another R.

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The one that worries the most is Stefanik. I don't trust any district in the State of New York, no matter how upstate and rural it may be. I really hope Trump and Wiles are confident it will be filled with another R.

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And the wildcard there is Hochul. How much can she interfere with the special election process?

IDK.

Susie Wiles is widely-regarded as a sound political strategist…

I just can't sit here and assume she's letting Trump do anything that isn't calculated…

I honestly think she's been working on this comeback for Trump damn near since he "lost" in 2020…

My guess is they have very detailed strategy and plans to carry it out…

Trump has been moving at "warp speed" to announce nominees…probably because they have already been vetted and are part of an overall strategy…

Funding for all of this? Likely came from Elon and his resources (both financial and technological) have likely been key in formulating and executing this strategy…

Now I could be 100% wrong, but I think Trump learned some valuable lessons over the last 8 years…

Yeah stands to reason she knows just a little bit more than we do.

aggiehawg said:

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The one that worries the most is Stefanik. I don't trust any district in the State of New York, no matter how upstate and rural it may be. I really hope Trump and Wiles are confident it will be filled with another R.

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And the wildcard there is Hochul. How much can she interfere with the special election process?

IDK.

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Or with Elon's resources…what skeletons have they dug up in Hochul's closet that could be used against her and might be made aware to her under the table?

I think folks are discounting how integral Elon has been (and will be)…

It's not the governor I worry about in the special election. By law she has to call for a special election within 10 days of the resignation and schedule it between 70 and 80 days from that day. Unlike Florida she doesn't really have much authority to do anything.

I worry more about the Democrats recruiting a never Trumper Republican to run against another Republican in the race to split the vote so the Democrat wins. The Republicans coalescing around one candidate and one candidate only should win that election pretty easily. It's a gerrymandered bright red district. 62-38 red.

AtticusMatlock said:

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It's not the governor I worry about in the special election. By law she has to call for a special election within 10 days of the resignation and schedule it between 70 and 80 days from that day. Unlike Florida she doesn't really have much authority to do anything.

I worry more about the Democrats recruiting a never Trumper Republican to run against another Republican in the race to split the vote so the Democrat wins. The Republicans coalescing around one candidate and one candidate only should win that election pretty easily. It's a gerrymandered bright red district. 62-38 red.

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Hadn't considered that. Thanks for yet another Maalox moment, I guess?

I think the never Trumpers have got to realize this time is truly different. People are behind Trump now who weren't in 2017-2020. The submerged state and the MSM industrial complex have taken a serious kick to the midsection.

Don't get me wrong, I know they will still do everything they think they can to try and stop his agenda, but they don't have near the support to cock-block him this time around that they did previously.

The public's eyes have been opened.

samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

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Oh good Lord....

How about this then, Republicans have won 218 seats and have taken the majority.

That is a FACT.

I know you (and others) want the Dems to win so bad so you can claim that they cheated. It's almost like porn to you people.

Give it a rest. Be happy that conservatives won both houses and the presidency for cryin' out loud.

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You dont know anything, that is clear. My point was a news outlet calling something means nothing, we have seen many times it go the other way after somethign is "called". But please continue telling us what you "know".

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Don't worry, I will.

Here here!

Update 11/14 1pm

• CA 45 had a devastating ballot dump yesterday for the GOP incumbent. Her lead in Orange County is shrinking with each dump and now leads by a miniscule amount. I expect the Dem to take the lead today.
• CA 13 is counting more slowly than any other district in CA. Only 74% in. GOP lead has held up over the last few small dumps but not sure how much mail is still outstanding. GOP incumbent Duarte won by 564 votes in 2022. He currently leads by 3,763.
• Alaska looks good for GOP. It will go to ranked choice which won't be officially calculated until November 20, but open records requests have shown the GOP candidate Begich has a big advantage in 2nd place votes from the roughly 11,500 3rd party votes (the hyper-conservative Alaska Independence party).

To me the most likely outcome is what DDHQ has been saying: 220-215. It is unfortunate in a red wave year, but these gerrymandered "swing" districts in California are really D+ districts.

What is the typical time of day that we get more California vote dumps?

UntoldSpirit said:

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What is the typical time of day that we get more California vote dumps?

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Depends on when the Dems finish creating another batch of fake votes.

Usually around 5:00 p.m. their time. Didn't see much today.

Still in a holding pattern here.

AK 1 - November 20 is the day
IA 1 - Recount but GOP should win

• CA 13 - GOP incumbent lost 1800 votes in the last dump. 85% in and he leads by 1902. Still has a puncher's chance of winning but my guess is this one barely goes back to the Dems. This is a gerrymandered Dem district.
• CA 45 - GOP incumbent leads by just 236 votes with 93% in. She's lost ground every day. Pretty much no hope here for me. The LA County neighborhoods thrown into this district outweigh the GOP advantage in the Orange County areas.

Looking at 220-215 most likely. Was hoping it would be better but it is what it is.

Probably gonna only be 218-215 for the first few months of the new administration.

Johnson asked Trump today to stop pulling his people from Congress

Steel now up by 58 votes. Didn't lose as much as in Prior dumps from LA County and it looks like LA County may be done or very close to being done. Nothing new from Orange County yet.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Steel now up by 58 votes. Didn't lose as much as in Prior dumps from LA County and it looks like LA County may be done or very close to being done. Nothing new from Orange County yet.

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Do I detect a glimmer of hope for CA 45?

I have no hope. She's ahead in OC but has lost ground there in every update.

I'm also about 80% certain CA 13 will be lost. Duarte is still ahead by over 2,000 votes but the outstanding vote is in a slightly blue area. The late mail vote is going hard Dem.

This is where money spent on the ground matters. In these tight CA districts I guarantee you the GOP was way outspent in the ballot harvesting and door to door operations.

AtticusMatlock said:

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I'm also about 80% certain CA 13 will be lost. Duarte is still ahead by over 2,000 votes but the outstanding vote is in a slightly blue area. The late mail vote is going hard Dem.

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When does it not?

Dec. Desk calls AK 1 for GOP, putting GOP House at 220

Decision Desk HQ projects Nick Begich (R) wins the US House election in Alaska’s at-large congressional district.#DecisionMade: 10:54am ET

Follow live results here: https://t.co/XJB5RznQx7 pic.twitter.com/NrFqdFCv9h

— Decision Desk HQ (@DecisionDeskHQ) November 16, 2024

AP =218 GOP, 212 Dem

Dec. Desk = 220 GOP, 213 Dem (Added IA 1 & AK 1 for GOP)

RCP = 219 GOP, 210 Dem (Added IA 1 for GOP)

Lol, in Alaska they have so few people that the candidates don't even need to include their last name on the ballot.

Nick wins!!

Looks like it will land 220 or 221 GOP. If Johnson is up to the task, they can get a lot done over the next two years. Midterms will be brutal.

Steel has lost the lead in CA 45, now trailing by 36 votes.

From what I'm reading the big issue in this district her opponent was hammering is abortion. I'm not kidding.

A bunch of idiots who already had access to abortion whenever they wanted on CA are voting her out because she is pro-life.

Watching for updates here within the next hour or two. California should have some decent drops which should indicate more precisely where those races are going. I don't think California 45 is in play for the Republican incumbent anymore. I think Duarte still has a chance of holding on in his district but it's going to be tight.

Alaska will be officially announced on Wednesday. It's essentially a foregone conclusion this will be a GOP flip.

Won't know anything about the Iowa 1 recount for a while.

And now the numbers are minimum 220 and max of 221 for GOP.

Small drop in 45. Democrat lead by just over 100 votes.

Vote drop for Duarte in 13 was favorable. However, pretty much all the red areas are in and the blue areas are still only 80 to 85% in according to estimates. He leads by around 2,200 votes. It's going to be close.

Math in CA 13:

Roughly 17,780ish votes outstanding. GOP leads by 2,281. >95% of the red counties are in.

80% left in Merced County where the Dem leads by 666
82% left in Stanislas County where the Dem leads by 3,059
94% left in San Joaquin County where the Dem leads by 1,021

IF current percentages hold, the Dem would only be able to gain about 745 votes in the outstanding ballots.

However, these are likely day of just before election day mail ballots and will probably go at least 2:1 Dem.

California is so crooked/incompetent.

We get it, you're the most populated state. That just means you should be EXTRA prepared for national elections like these.

The fact that Trump's popular vote victory is diluted from all these "extra" votes weeks after the election is just asinine.

AtticusMatlock said:

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It's not the governor I worry about in the special election. By law she has to call for a special election within 10 days of the resignation and schedule it between 70 and 80 days from that day. Unlike Florida she doesn't really have much authority to do anything.

I worry more about the Democrats recruiting a never Trumper Republican to run against another Republican in the race to split the vote so the Democrat wins. The Republicans coalescing around one candidate and one candidate only should win that election pretty easily. It's a gerrymandered bright red district. 62-38 red.

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I am seeing Constantino in that district who built the biggest Trump signs on his office buildings in the country

so it's great he has personal wealth and is a young italian guy- should be able to win that district.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Math in CA 13:

Roughly 17,780ish votes outstanding. GOP leads by 2,281. >95% of the red counties are in.

80% left in Merced County where the Dem leads by 666
82% left in Stanislas County where the Dem leads by 3,059
94% left in San Joaquin County where the Dem leads by 1,021

IF current percentages hold, the Dem would only be able to gain about 745 votes in the outstanding ballots.

However, these are likely day of just before election day mail ballots and will probably go at least 2:1 Dem.

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Merced is the biggest county, and it is lagging in reporting so the necessary number of votes required for Gray (D) to win can be determined and produced. Wait for it.