AtticusMatlock said:

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New York Times just updated the estimated % of outstanding ballots left in CA 45. Math looks a bit more comfortable for the GOP incumbent but it's still going to be very close. 94% of the LA County portion of the district is now in and that's where her opponent is leading the most. 84% of Orange County portion of district is in and she is leading there by a small amount. Not out of the woods yet as each ballot drop has drawn the race a bit closer, even in Orange County, but still looks better than what it did.

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Reminder: Los Angeles County uses a proprietary electronic voting system created for them by Smartmatic.

Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

WolfCall said:

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Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

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Each group of statisticians has their own criteria to make the call. DDHQ has a model in which they will call a race when they believe it is greater than 95% certainty of a win. That's how most outlets also handle it but they all have their own slightly different statistical models. So you'll see a bit of variation when races get called. DDHQ has been more aggressive on the House calls but more conservative in the Senate calls. AP has been the opposite.

Quick Update 11/13 630pm:

• IA 1 still has a few votes trickling in. Miller-Meeks (GOP incumbent) now up by 802 votes.
• Good day so far for GOP incumbent John Duarte in CA 13. Gained 600 votes in latest dump. Still only 74% est reported, though.
• Waiting on new news in CA 45. Hopefully we'll get a favorable update by about 7p CT.

AtticusMatlock said:

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WolfCall said:

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Some people reporting Republicans have 219 as opposed to 217 on AP and Fox. What's up?

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Each group of statisticians has their own criteria to make the call. DDHQ has a model in which they will call a race when they believe it is greater than 95% certainty of a win. That's how most outlets also handle it but they all have their own slightly different statistical models. So you'll see a bit of variation when races get called. DDHQ has been more aggressive on the House calls but more conservative in the Senate calls. AP has been the opposite.

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How many spots are still to be called?

With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

AP and NYT have yet to call 11 races. I'm sticking with them because they've been the most hesitant to call races.

Of these, in my estimation only two (CA 45 and CA 13) have outcomes that are reasonably in doubt. GOP leads both of them and hopefully it will stay that way.

FireAg said:

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With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

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Wait, for the currently sitting House?

Or incoming? He still could show up to be sworn for the next session of Congress, I thought?

(Really crappy optics if that is the play here. And I am not sure DeSantis could get a special election completed on such a short time frame. And if the seat is no longer vacant before the special election? I see a lot of court time happening.)

I don't think this was thought through all of the way. I sure as hell am confused and getting whiplash from how fast the landscape keeps shifting.

Whats that you say about the right pigs squeeling?

aggiehawg said:

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FireAg said:

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With Gaetz's resignation, the Rs now have the majority at 217…

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Wait, for the currently sitting House?

Or incoming? He still could show up to be sworn for the next session of Congress, I thought?

(Really crappy optics if that is the play here. And I am not sure DeSantis could get a special election completed on such a short time frame. And if the seat is no longer vacant before the special election? I see a lot of court time happening.)

I don't think this was thought through all of the way. I sure as hell am confused and getting whiplash from how fast the landscape keeps shifting.

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Well we will eventually find out one way or another…

Wiles doesn't usually just do things on a whim though…if she's in on it, then there's something we aren't privy to yet…

The Hill is quoting Speaker Johnson that they have spoken with Governor Desantis and intend on having a special election soon enough to seat the replacement by 3 January. The article also said that this will effectively kill the ethics investigation due to they don't have jurisdiction anymore.

Really bad drop in CA 45. Michelle Steel now only leads by 349 votes. Looking like it's going to be a Dem flip. He's gained every day.

The Dem challenger has garnered around 58% of the vote in Orange County over the last few days.

I don't see this as be salvageable. There's not enough GOP votes left IMO.

Thanks. I just didn't want for them to come back and either tie or move ahead.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Really bad drop in CA 45. Michelle Steel now only leads by 349 votes. Looking like it's going to be a Dem flip. He's gained every day.

The Dem challenger has garnered around 58% of the vote in Orange County over the last few days.

I don't see this as be salvageable. There's not enough GOP votes left IMO.

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Hoping for some kind of Hail Mary in CA 45. The way we are losing House members to the administration, we need as many as possible.

We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

Some people seem to want to lose just to say "I told you so"

AP FINALLY CALLS AZ 6

AP =218 GOP, 208 Dem AP CALLS GOP CONTROL OF HOUSE

Dec. Desk = 219 GOP, 212 Dem (Added IA 1 for GOP)

RCP = 219 GOP, 210 Dem (Added IA 1 for GOP)

jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

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if i call you a butthead it will be official.

but you are correct. butthead

The house seats in Alaska and Iowa haven't been called, right? It's bull**** with what's going on with California now. Funny the longer it takes, somehow the democrats gain closer than before and eventually take the lead to the end.

maxag42 said:

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The house seats in Alaska and Iowa haven't been called, right? It's bull**** with what's going on with California now. Funny the longer it takes, somehow the democrats gain closer than before and eventually take the lead to the end.

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Huh?

Some people…. Yikes.

I called the House, must be official.

samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

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Oh good Lord....

How about this then, Republicans have won 218 seats and have taken the majority.

That is a FACT.

I know you (and others) want the Dems to win so bad so you can claim that they cheated. It's almost like porn to you people.

Give it a rest. Be happy that conservatives won both houses and the presidency for cryin' out loud.

maxag42 said:

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The house seats in Alaska and Iowa haven't been called, right? It's bull**** with what's going on with California now. Funny the longer it takes, somehow the democrats gain closer than before and eventually take the lead to the end.

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Iowa looks pretty safe at this point. This race came down to six votes last time and she's currently ahead by over 800. A recount shouldn't swing that many back to the Democrat. It didn't last time.

Alaska should ultimately be called for the GOP but we won't know until November 20th.

So GOP with 219 or 220 with CA 45 and 13 still possible? Assuming AK is GOP Nov 20.

jamieboy2014 said:

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samurai_science said:

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jamieboy2014 said:

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4 said:

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We won't. There's a reason these races are taking so long in Democrat run states.

The outcomes are not being left to chance.

The D's can't afford to lose both chambers and the White House

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They will lose the house. It's already been called.

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Calling something is not official

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Oh good Lord....

How about this then, Republicans have won 218 seats and have taken the majority.

That is a FACT.

I know you (and others) want the Dems to win so bad so you can claim that they cheated. It's almost like porn to you people.

Give it a rest. Be happy that conservatives won both houses and the presidency for cryin' out loud.

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You dont know anything, that is clear. My point was a news outlet calling something means nothing, we have seen many times it go the other way after somethign is "called". But please continue telling us what you "know".

blessed said:

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So GOP with 219 or 220 with CA 45 and 13 still possible? Assuming AK is GOP Nov 20.

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Alaska and Iowa put it at 220. 13 is still a toss-up that could go either way. 45 looks very rough.

AtticusMatlock said:

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blessed said:

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So GOP with 219 or 220 with CA 45 and 13 still possible? Assuming AK is GOP Nov 20.

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Alaska and Iowa put it at 220. 13 is still a toss-up that could go either way. 45 looks very rough.

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If Trump keeps cannibalizing that majority can disappear fast. Jeebus! I hope they know what they are doing. Were I in Mike Johnson's shoes, I'd be swigging Maalox and eating Tums like they were breath mints.

CA-45 resident here. We got us a nail biter.

The majority of the district is in Orange County where Steel leads. I did my part, but the rest of fellow my LA county residents are letting us down.

Sid Farkas said:

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CA-45 resident here. We got us a nail biter.

The majority of the district is in Orange County where Steel leads. I did my part, but the rest of fellow my LA county residents are letting us down.

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I have no faith in LA County, just in general but specifically because they use Smartmatic. Only place in the entire US who does.

aggiehawg said:

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AtticusMatlock said:

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blessed said:

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So GOP with 219 or 220 with CA 45 and 13 still possible? Assuming AK is GOP Nov 20.

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Alaska and Iowa put it at 220. 13 is still a toss-up that could go either way. 45 looks very rough.

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If Trump keeps cannibalizing that majority can disappear fast. Jeebus! I hope they know what they are doing. Were I in Mike Johnson's shoes, I'd be swigging Maalox and eating Tums like they were breath mints.

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I think Wiles is driving this ship, and I am quite confident they have a plan to backfill and keep the majority…

I pray so.