AtticusMatlock said:

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1pm Update - nothing to report. There have been no ballot dumps today.

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Just wondering, how long do ballot dumps go on? I don't remember any such thing before 2020. Something needs fixing.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Alaska update:

https://www.adn.com/politics/2024/11/11/whats-next-for-alaska-election-results-tuesday-is-next-big-ballot-count/

Roughly 61,000 votes still waiting to be added to the count. That's an estimate. They are expecting the vast majority of that to dump later today. Some of this is actually still the early vote. Some of it is absentee.

By late this afternoon we should have a very good idea of how this race will unfold. Hopefully GOP will gain enough to get over that 50% mark.

If it does not go to 50% the ranked choice will be applied on November 20th.

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https://mustreadalaska.com/raw-data-released-by-division-of-elections-shows-begich-will-win-in-after-ballots-ranked/

Several conservatives made FOIA request of ranked choice ballot data. As predicted, Begich is set to pick up more votes from 3rd place candidate if ranked choice is applied and will win comfortably.

Hopefully the ballot measure to jettison ranked choice voting passes as well - that one is closer and data hasn't been released yet.

That seems extremely solid for Begich. Should be a GOP call soon hopefully.

Trying to look into some of these California races. I know Fresno and the Central Valley area were hit by a weird dust storm yesterday with accompanied power outages so could be a delay there. Have not been able to find how many are outstanding and when we can expect votes to be updated.

Per the OC Register, as of Monday there were still about 173,000 ballots outstanding in Orange County. Some of those posted yesterday. Orange County (a moderate but slightly red area) is split between several congressional districts. This is included in the outstanding ballots left to count for 45, 47, 49.

For each CA mail-in ballot, a team of GOP, DEM and independent people look at each ballot and the signature on file for that person. If the signatures match, it moves on to the tabulator. If not, the ballot is put aside and the individual contacted for potential curing. All of this is done by hand and takes a lot of time.

Barnyard96 said:

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Need to pad that 218 or somebody will flip for favors.

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This is going to be tight. Tighter now that Trump is pulling two Republican reps out of the house to serve in other positions.

I sure hope that doesn't backfire on us.

4 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Need to pad that 218 or somebody will flip for favors.

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This is going to be tight. Tighter now that Trump is pulling two Republican reps out of the house to serve in other positions.

I sure hope that doesn't backfire on us.

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Stefanik won by almost 25% and Waltz by 30% so those 'should' get replaced with with Republican/conservative reps. I also have faith in RD to replace Rubio with someone solid through 2026

That said, it makes me nervous as well. I am good with the appointments so far, but hope we don't pull any more from the majorities. As good as some options are, without majorities in both houses it isn't going to work....especially when we still rely on the mushy/rhino who can be 'bought' under the guise of bipartisanship.

Quote:

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Stefanik won by almost 25% and Waltz by 30% so those 'should' get replaced with with Republican/conservative reps. I also have faith in RD to replace Rubio with someone solid through 2026

That said, it makes me nervous as well. I am good with the appointments so far, but hope we don't pull any more from the majorities. As good as some options are, without majorities in both houses it isn't going to work....especially when we still rely on the mushy/rhino who can be 'bought' under the guise of bipartisanship.

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I'm nervous as well. Kind of a-bird-in-one-hand-versus=two-in-the-bush type of thing. He has the majority, why chance it at all?

We fixed the keg said:

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4 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Need to pad that 218 or somebody will flip for favors.

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This is going to be tight. Tighter now that Trump is pulling two Republican reps out of the house to serve in other positions.

I sure hope that doesn't backfire on us.

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Stefanik won by almost 25% and Waltz by 30% so those 'should' get replaced with with Republican/conservative reps. I also have faith in RD to replace Rubio with someone solid through 2026

That said, it makes me nervous as well. I am good with the appointments so far, but hope we don't pull any more from the majorities. As good as some options are, without majorities in both houses it isn't going to work....especially when we still rely on the mushy/rhino who can be 'bought' under the guise of bipartisanship.

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The issue is timing. The most important legislation happens in the first 100 days and for Trump as a 1 Termer that is by far the most critical time for him. They need those votes otherwise you will see watered down bills or bills that simply never pass. Of course they will eventually be replaced but that takes time. Not an issue for Rubio as DeSantis can appoint someone immediately (DeWine gets to replace Vance which is far more concerning as he is a RINO).

Plus DeSantis can call a special election quickly to replace Waltz.

But I wouldn't trust Hochul to do the same.

aggie93 said:

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We fixed the keg said:

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4 said:

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Barnyard96 said:

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Need to pad that 218 or somebody will flip for favors.

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This is going to be tight. Tighter now that Trump is pulling two Republican reps out of the house to serve in other positions.

I sure hope that doesn't backfire on us.

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Stefanik won by almost 25% and Waltz by 30% so those 'should' get replaced with with Republican/conservative reps. I also have faith in RD to replace Rubio with someone solid through 2026

That said, it makes me nervous as well. I am good with the appointments so far, but hope we don't pull any more from the majorities. As good as some options are, without majorities in both houses it isn't going to work....especially when we still rely on the mushy/rhino who can be 'bought' under the guise of bipartisanship.

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The issue is timing. The most important legislation happens in the first 100 days and for Trump as a 1 Termer that is by far the most critical time for him. They need those votes otherwise you will see watered down bills or bills that simply never pass. Of course they will eventually be replaced but that takes time. Not an issue for Rubio as DeSantis can appoint someone immediately (DeWine gets to replace Vance which is far more concerning as he is a RINO).

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EXACTLY

Nothing yet out of Alaska. It's three hours behind CT in Anchorage so we've still got a few hours before the close of business today.

The California ballot counts were updated yesterday at around 5pm PT so we've likely got some time there too before we learn anything.

I assume Stefanik and Waltz will remain in office until they get through confirmation hearings. They may be sworn in to the upcoming Congress and able to vote on some things before that happens. Would only give them probably a few weeks at best though.

Update 11/12 625pm

• Iowa 1 still posting some intermittent tiny ballot drops, probably adjudicated provisional ballots. Miller-Meeks still holds a commanding 731 vote lead in a district she won by 6 votes in 2022. This will go to a hand recount just like last time. Miller-Meeks is projected by other outlets to win, and I'm fairly certain she will pull it out once again. This is a fascinating district.
• Still waiting on Alaska, should come within the next hour or two?
• Still no new ballot counts today from California. Perhaps in the next hour.

Had to run to best buy for a new printer cartridge

Looked up NY federal seat replacement rules. Once a resignation happens the Gov has 10 days to schedule a special election, which would take place 70 to 80 days after that.

Would Stefanik risk resigning now so that a replacement can be known in mid-February or will she wait for confirmation? That's the big decision she has to make. If she waits until Inauguration Day or later the seat will not be filled in time for the "first 100 days" initiatives.

Update 11/12 715pm

California with a 5pm PT drop. I don't like how things are trending in a few of these districts:

• CA 45 continues to trend closer. Not a good development. Steel's lead decreased by almost 1,700 votes - down to 2,272. The last drop from OC favored the Dem. Steel still leads in OC by 2% but the lead was slightly less than 4% before the last drop. This is the most populous county in the district. 87% in and most of the outstanding are in OC. Unfortunately the last several drops there have favored the Dem.
• Nothing new yet in CA 41 but the GOP incumbent has declared victory. Scrawny looking ginger Dem does not concede.
• CA 13 is also trending closer. GOP incumbent John Duarte is now only up by 2,708 votes.
• Still waiting on Alaska.

Not liking the narrowing margin here. Can't have Stefanik and Waltz resign if the margin is 220-215. That would leave them the smallest possible majority and at 218 there is zero margin for anything.

CA 13 with another small drop after I updated. GOP incumbent gained about 500 votes. 70% in now for the district.

Where are these votes coming from? Were they mailed after the election?

Majority of ballots in CA are by mail. Not pre-canvassed. They have to do manual signature verification of every ballot by reps from GOP, DEM, and IND and it takes an extended period of time

Thanks.

Gap for AZ 6 keeps growing. AP needs to call this for GOP.

AP FINALLY CALLS CO 8 AND CA 22

AP =216 GOP, 206 Dem

Dec. Desk = 219 GOP, 211 Dem (Added IA 1, AZ 6 & CA 41 for GOP) GOP CONTROL OF HOUSE

RCP = 219 GOP, 209 Dem (Added IA 1, AZ 6 & CA 41 for GOP)

Still waiting on this promised Alaska update. It is approaching 6:00 p.m. local time. Maybe they'll release it at the top of the hour.

No Alaska yet. Nice dump for the GOP incumbent in CA 41. That one is looking quite safe now. DDHQ has already called it.

220 is the floor for the GOP IMO. Still hoping for 222.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Trying to look into some of these California races. I know Fresno and the Central Valley area were hit by a weird dust storm yesterday with accompanied power outages so could be a delay there. Have not been able to find how many are outstanding and when we can expect votes to be updated.

Per the OC Register, as of Monday there were still about 173,000 ballots outstanding in Orange County. Some of those posted yesterday. Orange County (a moderate but slightly red area) is split between several congressional districts. This is included in the outstanding ballots left to count for 45, 47, 49.

For each CA mail-in ballot, a team of GOP, DEM and independent people look at each ballot and the signature on file for that person. If the signatures match, it moves on to the tabulator. If not, the ballot is put aside and the individual contacted for potential curing. All of this is done by hand and takes a lot of time.

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Signature verification is the dumbest crap ever. You got 2 or 3 workers with who knows what training looking at the ballot envelope signature like they are forensic scientists. They do this same crap in AZ and take forever. Have them put the last 4 of their SSN or DL # on the ballot envelope or better yet bubble the numbers in on the ballot itself so it can be audited more thoroughly and verified as a legit vote way faster.

The DEMs will never go for it, voter suppression or some BS made up logic. Most likely, not as easy to cheat is the real reason, and probably less poll workers would need to be hired...

The Alaska dump happened. The repeal of rank choice voting got closer. I believe the House race got a little closer, too. It looks like it was about 35,000 ballots, so over half of the supposed 61,000 remaining ballots.

Begich lead is still around 10,000 votes but his overall share dropped to 49.1%. This will go to ranked choice. We will know who wins Alaska on November 20th. It will more than likely be a GOP flip.

AtticusMatlock said:

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Begich lead is still around 10,000 votes but his overall share dropped to 49.1%. This will go to ranked choice. We will know who wins Alaska on November 20th. It will more than likely be a GOP flip.

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Makes sense since he doesn't need very much of the "second choice" votes to go to him.

It's ridiculous that it's been over a week and some of the CA districts still have over a quarter of their ballots left to count. There is no excuse for it to take this long.

AggieUSMC said:

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It's ridiculous that it's been over a week and some of the CA districts still have over a quarter of their ballots left to count. There is no excuse for it to take this long.

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It takes a while to manufacturer Democrat votes.

As close as the house race is, and what those last few house seats mean for the country, can you imagine the pressure the Democrat party is putting on California to make sure Republicans don't win those districts?

If you are not serving your country overseas there is zero reason you should not be able to show up stand in line and vote but yet here we are. Should have to be legal citizen, in person, and on a paper ballot you sign. Imagine how easy it would be to determine a winner that way? Exactly why it isn't done that way. One party is lazy and needs your money. They make tge rules and slang the results.

We will be in a pattern for the next several days where We'll see California update their ballot totals at about 7:00 p.m. central time. Some districts are split between counties so we may see several different dumps within that hour.

CA 13 and 45 are the two remaining toss ups. Both have GOP incumbents.

New York Times just updated the estimated % of outstanding ballots left in CA 45. Math looks a bit more comfortable for the GOP incumbent but it's still going to be very close. 94% of the LA County portion of the district is now in and that's where her opponent is leading the most. 84% of Orange County portion of district is in and she is leading there by a small amount. Not out of the woods yet as each ballot drop has drawn the race a bit closer, even in Orange County, but still looks better than what it did.