except there is some research that says many early voters are voters who have never or very seldom vote. I can believe that too. I also think there is a drop off in democrat early voting. Are they going to show up on ED? If they are used to early voting then why change?

TAMUallen said:

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UntoldSpirit said:

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The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

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No.

Very strong voters have gone early. That's always a dem thing.

You have independents, breaking for Trump, showing up too.

You'll have the same turnout tomorrow. Normal voters will go more republican than last time

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Yeah, I don't think the numbers will be as high as in the past. Doesn't mean Trump won't win though.

UntoldSpirit said:

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The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

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If you look at the numbers Republicans are voting early about the same they did in 2020. The story is democrats are way down from what they did in 2020. There's no reason not to expect Republicans to dominate ED like they do historically.

backintexas2013 said:

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except there is some research that says many early voters are voters who have never or very seldom vote. I can believe that too. I also think there is a drop off in democrat early voting. Are they going to show up on ED? If they are used to early voting then why change?

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I would be worried if Kamala had taken a page out of Trump's 2020 playbook and told all her voters to wait and vote on election day....she has done no such thing.

Also i read the AA vote is down in EV. Are they just going to show up on ED

backintexas2013 said:

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Also i read the AA vote is down in EV. Are they just going to show up on ED

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No. In 2020 because of Covid they mailed everyone in PA a ballot. Whether you asked for it or not. They made it extremely easy to vote. Democrats got a ton of low propensity voters that had never voted before in 2020. Now that things are back to normal, those people aren't voting again. The opposite is happening with Republicans. They killed it with registering new low propensity voters and got many of them to vote early already.

would rather the results of Nevada for Pennsylvania but pray these are still undercounting GOP support

🚨🚨ATLAS INTEL: TRUMP LEADS SEVEN SWING STATES. WITHIN TWO IN MINNESOTA🚨🚨

🔴 ARIZONA: TRUMP +5.1%
🔴 GEORGIA: TRUMP +1.6%
🔴MICHIGAN: TRUMP +1.5%
🔴NEVADA: TRUMP +3.1%
🔴NORTH CAROLINA: TRUMP +2.1%
🔴PENNSYLVANIA: TRUMP +1.0%
🔴WISCONSIN: TRUMP +0.9%
🔵MINNESOTA: HARRIS…

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 5, 2024

backintexas2013 said:

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Also i read the AA vote is down in EV. Are they just going to show up on ED

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No way they've coordinated that kind of strategy

I do not believe that's what Gallup is saying. I think that 7 point number is the swing to Republican of the entire electorate from 2020. As in, Trump, on average across the entire country, should do 7 points better than 2020. Individual states may vary.

I agree. They wouldn't want that. Stuff happens and if people aren't fully motivated they may not stand in line if it's a long wait or ****ty weather. They would want them to vote early just in case.

It's possible I misunderstood it. But either way, Trump wins

SwigAg11 said:

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I do not believe that's what Gallup is saying. I think that 7 point number is the swing to Republican of the entire electorate from 2020. As in, Trump, on average across the entire country, should do 7 points better than 2020. Individual states may vary.

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If either is true, Trump may win Virginia, Minnesota, NM, and NH. Not to mention all of the swing states. That would be a modern day landslide.

LMCane said:

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would rather the results of Nevada for Pennsylvania but pray these are still undercounting GOP support

🚨🚨ATLAS INTEL: TRUMP LEADS SEVEN SWING STATES. WITHIN TWO IN MINNESOTA🚨🚨

🔴 ARIZONA: TRUMP +5.1%
🔴 GEORGIA: TRUMP +1.6%
🔴MICHIGAN: TRUMP +1.5%
🔴NEVADA: TRUMP +3.1%
🔴NORTH CAROLINA: TRUMP +2.1%
🔴PENNSYLVANIA: TRUMP +1.0%
🔴WISCONSIN: TRUMP +0.9%
🔵MINNESOTA: HARRIS…

— PollWatch (@PollWatch2020) November 5, 2024

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Why are you posting a presidential election poll from 4 years ago?

Huh? That says Nov 4, 2024…

I hope that's true, but I just can't let myself be that optimistic.

It's dated today

Beerosch said:

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So based on this, they aren't expecting early Trump voters to cannibalize the Election Day Trump voters?

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Correct. Trump EV #'s are still about the same they were in 2020. So, they are still expecting big R EDay turnouts.

UntoldSpirit said:

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The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

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But the R EV #'s are still pretty much at the same level they were in 2020

FireAg said:

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Click on the link and it does not have anything from 2024.

I like all the red on there, and hope it is a true reflection of the polls, but I cannot find the original post from today, 4 November 2024, on the @PollWatch2020 X site.

satexas said:

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Charlie 31 said:

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Why are you posting a presidential election poll from 4 years ago?

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"@PollWatch2020" - That's just his handle…

…. That and Harris wouldn't be listed 4 years ago is a clue….

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Have you clicked on the site to verify this is on there? I cannot find it.

Bud…here is the original link:

I clicked on the tweet and it opened.

Also this is one of the replies. Click on and watch the video

Next time you’re at a restaurant, can you do me a favor?

Will you put one of these VOTE TRUMP FOR NO TAX ON TIPS stickers on your bill?

Democrats are mortified by millions of Americans hearing about President Trump’s popular idea.

So I need YOU to help spread the word!

— Alina Habba (@AlinaHabba) August 1, 2024

Click on the tweet itself, not the link in the name.

I don't have Twitter, so if I only click the username I can only see what was public before Musk took over and made it pay for viewing. But if I click the body of the tweet, it will show me the full tweet. ( or X)

We're not allowed to talk about 2020 on here.

Charlie 31 said:

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satexas said:

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Charlie 31 said:

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Why are you posting a presidential election poll from 4 years ago?

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"@PollWatch2020" - That's just his handle…

…. That and Harris wouldn't be listed 4 years ago is a clue….

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Have you clicked on the site to verify this is on there? I cannot find it.

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Um… take a minute and just stop clicking…. Look at the graphic you quoted, and others quoted…. Harris's name is there in clear blue highlight….

And yes, as others have pointed out… click the tweet itself, not the handle.

AggieAces06 said:

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Click on the tweet itself, not the link in the name.

I don't have Twitter, so if I only click the username I can only see what was public before Musk took over and made it pay for viewing. But if I click the body of the tweet, it will show me the full tweet. ( or X)

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THat's freakin malware

#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final AtlasIntel 2-way polling

🟥 Trump 312 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +5.1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3.1
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +2.1
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1.5
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1.0
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +0.9… https://t.co/FLlR8oDSIR pic.twitter.com/Hl9t0b9Eay

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2024

satexas said:

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Charlie 31 said:

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satexas said:

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Charlie 31 said:

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Why are you posting a presidential election poll from 4 years ago?

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"@PollWatch2020" - That's just his handle…

…. That and Harris wouldn't be listed 4 years ago is a clue….

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Have you clicked on the site to verify this is on there? I cannot find it.

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Um… take a minute and just stop clicking…. Look at the graphic you quoted, and others quoted…. Harris's name is there in clear blue highlight….

And yes, as others have pointed out… click the tweet itself, not the handle.

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Thanks. I see it now by clicking on the actual tweet as you suggested.

As I said, hopefully, this is the correct poll. I feel like Harris and her camp are panicking now because they know from their pollsters they are behind in the swing states.

This is a critical election for our nation's history.

On a side note, I find it interesting how many Gen Z persons I know are freaking out about this election. Several of my colleagues at work are taking off tomorrow and Wednesday because they cannot handle the possibility of Trump winning. What the heck kind of message are Harris and the D's sharing with our 20-somethings that make them think Trump being elected is the end of the world?

UntoldSpirit said:

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The counter argument to the early vote narrative is that Republicans have been told to go vote early, so they have been, making their ED vote much smaller than normal.

I hate to say it, but that's a pretty good argument.

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Except it's not.The Republicans have been focusing and harvesting low propensity voters.

UntoldSpirit said:

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#NEW - Electoral Map Based on Final AtlasIntel 2-way polling

🟥 Trump 312 🏆
🟦 Harris 226
——
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +5.1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3.1
North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +2.1
Michigan - 🔴 Trump +1.5
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +1.6
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +1.0
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +0.9… https://t.co/FLlR8oDSIR pic.twitter.com/Hl9t0b9Eay

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 5, 2024

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Puleez be true!