Ann Saltzer History polls vs Results

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

2024 President: D+3 https://t.co/6LGwepCUkd

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2024

Steve Deace is the conservative side of "all knowing Iowa person" here's his opinion

Don’t ever quote anymore Des Moines Register polls to me ever again. @jaselzer has just completely flushed down the toilet whatever was left of her credibility. Willful malfeasance. https://t.co/y7nsoujoyM

— Steve Deace (@SteveDeaceShow) November 2, 2024

Suppression poll maybe…but if I'm going to throw my reputation away, I'm gonna need to get paid…

Waffledynamics said:

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Ann Saltzer History polls vs Results

2022 Senate: R+12 (R+12)
2020 President: R+7 (R+8)
2020 Senate: R+4 (R+7)
2018 Governor: D+2 (R+3)
2016 President: R+7 (R+9)
2014 Senate: R+7 (R+8)
2012 President: D+5 (D+6)

2024 President: D+3 https://t.co/6LGwepCUkd

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 2, 2024

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If she is even within 5 points of being correct, it's over for Trump.

The more I look at this, the more it looks like a "damn the torpedos" type of Hail Mary from someone looking to impact the outcome

And if smart (if unwise) pollsters are doing that, maybe this is a good sign

FireAg said:

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Suppression poll maybe…but if I'm going to throw my reputation away, I'm gonna need to get paid…

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Because she will excuse it away. Look how terrible Marist poll is and people still quote it

Maybe the people of Iowa are dumber than we think?

Makes me more glad their football team lost today

I'm sticking with Emerson's plus ten released just two hours ago.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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I'm sticking with Emerson's plus ten released just two hours ago.

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I was thinking she was going to have a Trump +6/7 based on everything else…

It's why I'm in complete shock…

She either has found more quiet support for Harris or her extrapolation methodology is garbage. Maybe both. She's had wild monthly swings in the her poll, but generally her final poll has been very close to the result.

Iowa party registration has shifted from R+1% as of the last election to R +10% today. So Harris would be up huge in independents and/or peeling off R voters.

This doesn't change the strategy for either candidate. If Iowa is in play, Trump has bigger problems.

If this chart doesn’t scream Harris +3 I don’t know what does. pic.twitter.com/oCZKx83cHI

— Seth Keshel (@RealSKeshel) November 2, 2024

2024 Iowa GE - Selzer (Des Moines Register), 10/28-10/31, 808LV

Fairweighted™ Poll:

🔴 Trump 50% (+6)
🔵 Harris 44%

PollFair Weighting: R+10

Selzer Weighting: R+2

Original Poll:

Harris 47% (+3)
Trump 44%#IowaElection2024 #FairPolling #IAPolitics #IA2024Elections…

— PollFair (@poll_fair) November 2, 2024

#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 50% (+2)
🔵 Harris 48%

Atlasintel #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

Quo Vadis? said:

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#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 50% (+2)
🔵 Harris 48%

Atlasintel #A - LV - 11/2

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) November 3, 2024

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Hasn't the thing we said all along was that even if Harris was as high as +2 nationally, that would be an electoral landslide for Trump?

There are two very glaring nuggets suggesting it's an outlier, save for the fact the president has won Iowa easily in the past two election.

1. Most important issues looks like she interviewed people in a Starbucks line in Manhattan.

2. The recalled vote doesn't add up.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) November 2, 2024

Quote:

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Hasn't the thing we said all along was that even if Harris was as high as +2 nationally, that would be an electoral landslide for Trump?

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That's conventional polarization.

We will see if current polarization holds up to that.

Yeah, I don't know the exact numbers, but of the popular vote is close Trump wins. If it's a tie or Trump edge in pop vote it's probably a blow out.

Not usually a tinfoil hat guy, but…

This is far more sinister. pic.twitter.com/AVu9sXgbIn

— David Giglio (@DavidGiglioCA) November 2, 2024

I find it hard to believe that Iowa, a state that is 84% White is Harris +3, while Texas, 60% minority, is Trump +7ish (which is backed up by early voting data).

This is most certainly a ploy to motivate Dems to make up for early voting underperformance on election day. Unless Iowans really do have a severe case of TDS...

[Please do not requote prior posts with lots of graphics that take up a lot of space. Make your point without it. Thanks -- Staff]

Quo Vadis? said:

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#NEW BATTLEGROUND polls

🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+6.8
🔴 NEVADA: Trump+5.5
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+3.6
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+1.8
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1.7
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1.5
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+1.3

AtlasIntel | 11/1-2 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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Everyone breathe.

BARIS: Democrats were passing around the Ann Selzer Iowa poll yesterday (Harris+3).

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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#NEW BATTLEGROUND polls

🔴 ARIZONA: Trump+6.8
🔴 NEVADA: Trump+5.5
🔴 NORTH CAROLINA: Trump+3.6
🔴 GEORGIA: Trump+1.8
🔴 PENNSYLVANIA: Trump+1.7
🔴 MICHIGAN: Trump+1.5
🔴 WISCONSIN: Trump+1.3

AtlasIntel | 11/1-2 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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Everyone breathe.

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If it goes this way she can have Iowa

[Stop derailing this thread. We removed your derail twice. Third time is a timeout. Continue and it will increase in length -- Staff]

Drahknor03 said:

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BARIS: Democrats were passing around the Ann Selzer Iowa poll yesterday (Harris+3).

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 3, 2024

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I wonder if Trump's team was given that information ahead of time? I bet they didn't which points to collusion. They want to use this to drive D enthusiasm on ED and suppress R enthusiasm. It smells like a hail mary.

Maybe this is why the Dems were strutting around yesterday, they knew they would get to drop this tonight. Call it a November surprise but if this number is accurate Trump would lose just about every single state.

So are we really in a R+10 environment? The early vote seems evenly split, so polls should maybe be weighed closer to an R+3 environment. This would allow the movement in independent women to Harris to change the result.

Journalists generally get the information a day ahead, but have to sit on the info until it's released like embargoed movie reviews.

So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.

M-K-TAG said:

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So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.

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Yes. Literally ever other national poll would have to be horrendously wrong.

If that poll was passed early I wanna know if insiders headed to polymarket. There was a LOT of movement yesterday.

M-K-TAG said:

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So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.

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That's my take or if it's accurate Trump would be lucky to carry Florida. It flies in the face of all early voting across the country as well as a lack of enthusiasm on the Dems side.

To put it another way, Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020...and the state has gotten much redder over the last 4 years. This poll is complete trash.

TRM said:

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So are we really in a R+10 environment? The early vote seems evenly split, so polls should maybe be weighed closer to an R+3 environment. This would allow the movement in independent women to Harris to change the result.

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In Iowa, registration is R+10. Apparently Selzer had the poll weighted at R+2.

Prosperdick said:

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M-K-TAG said:

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So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.

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That's my take or if it's accurate Trump would be lucky to carry Florida. It flies in the face of all early voting across the country as well as a lack of enthusiasm on the Dems side.

To put it another way, Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020...and the state has gotten much redder over the last 4 years. This poll is complete trash.

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Yep this poll was meant to serve a purpose other that reflecting actual situation.