Muh Polls

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Waffledynamics
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6:32p, 11/2/24
AG
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McInnis 03
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6:34p, 11/2/24
AG
Steve Deace is the conservative side of "all knowing Iowa person" here's his opinion

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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:34p, 11/2/24
AG
Suppression poll maybe…but if I'm going to throw my reputation away, I'm gonna need to get paid…
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Toptierag2018
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:35p, 11/2/24
Waffledynamics said:
If she is even within 5 points of being correct, it's over for Trump.
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FrioAg 00
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6:36p, 11/2/24
AG
The more I look at this, the more it looks like a "damn the torpedos" type of Hail Mary from someone looking to impact the outcome

And if smart (if unwise) pollsters are doing that, maybe this is a good sign
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backintexas2013
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In reply to FireAg • 6:36p, 11/2/24
AG
FireAg said:
Suppression poll maybe…but if I'm going to throw my reputation away, I'm gonna need to get paid…


Because she will excuse it away. Look how terrible Marist poll is and people still quote it
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samurai_science
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6:37p, 11/2/24
Maybe the people of Iowa are dumber than we think?
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Cynic
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6:38p, 11/2/24
Makes me more glad their football team lost today
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Captn_Ag05
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6:42p, 11/2/24
AG
I'm sticking with Emerson's plus ten released just two hours ago.
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:43p, 11/2/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
I'm sticking with Emerson's plus ten released just two hours ago.

I was thinking she was going to have a Trump +6/7 based on everything else…

It's why I'm in complete shock…
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themissinglink
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6:51p, 11/2/24
AG
She either has found more quiet support for Harris or her extrapolation methodology is garbage. Maybe both. She's had wild monthly swings in the her poll, but generally her final poll has been very close to the result.

Iowa party registration has shifted from R+1% as of the last election to R +10% today. So Harris would be up huge in independents and/or peeling off R voters.

This doesn't change the strategy for either candidate. If Iowa is in play, Trump has bigger problems.
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Quo Vadis?
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6:59p, 11/2/24
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Quo Vadis?
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7:00p, 11/2/24
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Quo Vadis?
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7:02p, 11/2/24
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Quo Vadis?
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7:07p, 11/2/24
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Toptierag2018
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:12p, 11/2/24
Quo Vadis? said:


Hasn't the thing we said all along was that even if Harris was as high as +2 nationally, that would be an electoral landslide for Trump?
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Quo Vadis?
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7:14p, 11/2/24
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sam callahan
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7:14p, 11/2/24
Quote:
Hasn't the thing we said all along was that even if Harris was as high as +2 nationally, that would be an electoral landslide for Trump?

That's conventional polarization.

We will see if current polarization holds up to that.
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jr15aggie
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In reply to Toptierag2018 • 7:15p, 11/2/24
AG
Yeah, I don't know the exact numbers, but of the popular vote is close Trump wins. If it's a tie or Trump edge in pop vote it's probably a blow out.
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Drahknor03
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7:22p, 11/2/24
AG
Not usually a tinfoil hat guy, but…

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kongaggie
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:28p, 11/2/24
AG

I find it hard to believe that Iowa, a state that is 84% White is Harris +3, while Texas, 60% minority, is Trump +7ish (which is backed up by early voting data).

This is most certainly a ploy to motivate Dems to make up for early voting underperformance on election day. Unless Iowans really do have a severe case of TDS...

[Please do not requote prior posts with lots of graphics that take up a lot of space. Make your point without it. Thanks -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:33p, 11/2/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:


Everyone breathe.
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Drahknor03
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7:36p, 11/2/24
AG
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McInnis 03
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:36p, 11/2/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Quo Vadis? said:


Everyone breathe.


If it goes this way she can have Iowa
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JB99
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7:40p, 11/2/24
AG
[Stop derailing this thread. We removed your derail twice. Third time is a timeout. Continue and it will increase in length -- Staff]
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Captn_Ag05
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7:44p, 11/2/24
AG
Third poll showing Lake up in Arizona

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Prosperdick
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 7:46p, 11/2/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
I wonder if Trump's team was given that information ahead of time? I bet they didn't which points to collusion. They want to use this to drive D enthusiasm on ED and suppress R enthusiasm. It smells like a hail mary.

Maybe this is why the Dems were strutting around yesterday, they knew they would get to drop this tonight. Call it a November surprise but if this number is accurate Trump would lose just about every single state.
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TRM
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:57p, 11/2/24
AG
So are we really in a R+10 environment? The early vote seems evenly split, so polls should maybe be weighed closer to an R+3 environment. This would allow the movement in independent women to Harris to change the result.
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TRM
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In reply to Prosperdick • 7:58p, 11/2/24
AG
Journalists generally get the information a day ahead, but have to sit on the info until it's released like embargoed movie reviews.
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M-K-TAG
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:01p, 11/2/24
AG
So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to M-K-TAG • 8:02p, 11/2/24
AG
M-K-TAG said:
So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.

Yes. Literally ever other national poll would have to be horrendously wrong.
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McInnis 03
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8:03p, 11/2/24
AG
If that poll was passed early I wanna know if insiders headed to polymarket. There was a LOT of movement yesterday.
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Prosperdick
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In reply to M-K-TAG • 8:05p, 11/2/24
AG
M-K-TAG said:
So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.
That's my take or if it's accurate Trump would be lucky to carry Florida. It flies in the face of all early voting across the country as well as a lack of enthusiasm on the Dems side.

To put it another way, Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020...and the state has gotten much redder over the last 4 years. This poll is complete trash.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to TRM • 8:06p, 11/2/24
TRM said:
So are we really in a R+10 environment? The early vote seems evenly split, so polls should maybe be weighed closer to an R+3 environment. This would allow the movement in independent women to Harris to change the result.


In Iowa, registration is R+10. Apparently Selzer had the poll weighted at R+2.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Prosperdick • 8:07p, 11/2/24
AG
Prosperdick said:
M-K-TAG said:
So in short this poll is BS.... its a Psyop.
That's my take or if it's accurate Trump would be lucky to carry Florida. It flies in the face of all early voting across the country as well as a lack of enthusiasm on the Dems side.

To put it another way, Trump won Iowa by 8 points in 2020...and the state has gotten much redder over the last 4 years. This poll is complete trash.

Yep this poll was meant to serve a purpose other that reflecting actual situation.
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