Old McDonald said:
trump is not winning NH or VA, and you should be suspicious of any polls suggesting otherwise
that said, a close loss in either would be a very bullish signal for trump
That's the point. Nobody has suggested GOP assured victories here. But let's not pretend VA or NH don't like Republicans. These states aren't NY and CA. They still vote in Republicans in statewide elections as evidenced by both states having GOP Govs and Lt. Govs.
Does it mean Trump wins either state? No. But if polling is starting to trend toward the GOP at any level in these places, it bolds well for the GOP where they are far more competitive.