rathAG05 said:

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So impressive that you know this to be a fact.

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since 2004, a candidate has never lost a state when polling above 49.5% in the final RCP average. harris is currently at 49.8% in both NH and VA.

Old McDonald said:

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rathAG05 said:

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So impressive that you know this to be a fact.

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since 2004, a candidate has never lost a state when polling above 49.5% in the final RCP average. harris is currently at 49.8% in both NH and VA.

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I know you're talking polling and not votes. But remember, Hillary won NH with 49.86% and lost. Trump makes weird things happen because he's drawn in big enough groups of nonvoters. His foundation of support is the disaffected. 40% of the electorate doesn't vote. In a place like NH it's more like 25%, which is still a high number. But if you have a unique candidate that is able to tap the disaffected, it's very hard for the data analysts to pick up on that in this day and age.

If polling is showing a super close race in either of these states, it's likely the GOP challenger that's shown an ability to draw the support of the traditional non voter, they likely have the slight advantage in places like WI, PA, and NC.

Quote:

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But if you have a unique candidate that is able to tap the disaffected, it's very hard for the data analysts to pick up on that in this day and age.

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Yet, other people such as Scott Presler and Baris can find them and contact them.

Getting odd as to why that is. I mean, Plouffe is supposed to be some type of data guru on a granular scale but even he isn't looking for them. Reason being he feels secure his urban cores will show up to overwhelm the disaffected, low propensity voter. (Which is why they were disaffected and low propensity in the first place.)

This cycle, I think he made a hubristic mistake.

JUST IN: Atlas Intel, the most accurate pollster of 2020, will be releasing polls from other states including Virginia, Ohio, Texas

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2024

Well I think this lady just blew her credibility.

📊 Final IOWA poll by Ann Selzer for Des Moines Register

🟦 Harris: 47% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Oliver: 1%

Last poll (9/8-11) - 🔴 Trump +4
——
#12 (2.8/3.0) | 803 | 10/28-31https://t.co/RiuFL1VB5l

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) November 2, 2024

How so? I thought this was the poll everyone was waiting for…

If Trump loses Iowa he is getting blown out. That's got to be a complete outlier I haven't seen anyone say Iowa was close

Corn farmers are trending woke

FireAg said:

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How do? I thought this was the poll everyone was waiting for…

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It is. She was the gold standard of Iowa polling. If she is right, every other poll this cycle is wrong. Iowa is ten points to the right of the country.

And the polls are continuing to try and perpetuate the doomer cycle. Didn't think it was possible to have 2 polls come out for 1 state in a single day with a 13 point spread.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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FireAg said:

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How do? I thought this was the poll everyone was waiting for…

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It is. She was the gold standard of Iowa polling. If she is right, every other poll this cycle is wrong. Iowa is ten points to the right of the country.

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Is she right? You said she just lost all credibility…

What in her numbers makes you think that?

If Iowa is within 3 points, you would already know about it

If she is right, then everything else everywhere else is really wrong and this will be a blue bloodbath

I am just not sure I believe that is possible

The Selzer poll is stunning. Ann Selzer has a longstanding reputation as a highly skilled pollster in the Iowa market, AND for releasing results even if they contradict conventional wisdom/other polls.

Note that this certainly doesn't mean that Harris is actually ahead in Iowa. Trump leading in the state would be well within the mathematical margin of error. But if Iowa is even kind of competitive, Trump is cooked.

Shouldn't make too much of any single data point (even this one), but the interpretations are:

1) Trump is cooked.

2) Selzer has totally lost her mojo and/or become a partisan shill

3) This poll is a fluke outlier (things that have a 1% chance of happening happen all the time)

Yeah I don't think so. Sorry.

It would be 12 point swing from Emerson poll

SwigAg11 said:

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And the polls are continuing to try and perpetuate the doomer cycle. Didn't think it was possible to have 2 polls come out for 1 state in a single day with a 13 point spread.

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And the Chism poll is very left leaning showing Trump up by ten.

No way, Kamala is winning Iowa. Has she even been there since the Dem primaries in 2019?

Captn_Ag05 said:

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FireAg said:

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How do? I thought this was the poll everyone was waiting for…

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It is. She was the gold standard of Iowa polling. If she is right, every other poll this cycle is wrong. Iowa is ten points to the right of the country.

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How can you say that when 12 years ago Obama won it by 5 points?

Eight years ago, there was around 6% of the pop that hated both leading to Trump's 10 point win over Clinton (51-41).

IF that poll is right, I'm willing to bet indies and Haley supporters are leaning towards Harris.

I thought the Susquehanna polls were the big outliers this election, but this one now takes the lead.

TRM said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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FireAg said:

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How do? I thought this was the poll everyone was waiting for…

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It is. She was the gold standard of Iowa polling. If she is right, every other poll this cycle is wrong. Iowa is ten points to the right of the country.

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How can you say that when 12 years ago Obama won it by 5 points?

Eight years ago, there was around 6% of the pop that hated both leading to Trump's 10 point win over Clinton (51-41).

IF that poll is right, I'm willing to bet indies and Haley supporters are leaning towards Harris.

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Please place that bet. It has trended hard right and registrations reflect that. Obama also won Indiana. Which is even further right that Iowa.

backintexas2013 said:

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It would be 12 point swing from Emerson poll

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The result is absolutely crazy. Silver's model, for example, has Trump +7.4 in Iowa and no other poll has suggested anything remotely within this range.

The concern is that Selzer has been arguably the most outstanding pollster in the country (albeit one who is focused solely on Iowa), and has made a number of counterintuitive calls over the years that turned out to be correct.

https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Quick read

Got no reason to have confidence in any of these polls. Two days out and anything could happen. No way to tell what we are about see, and no idea whats about to happen.

Maybe she's drunk?

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump wins Iowa by at least 8. .

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Then why would her polling be so terrible all of a sudden?

Maybe she's intentionally tanking the betting markets and is about to bet her literal farm on Trump at the manipulated odds?

Barnyard96 said:

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https://www.desmoinesregister.com/story/news/politics/iowa-poll/2024/11/02/iowa-poll-kamala-harris-leads-donald-trump-2024-presidential-race/75354033007/

Quick read

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Quote:

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The poll shows that women particularly those who are older or who are politically independent are driving the late shift toward Harris.

"Age and gender are the two most dynamic factors that are explaining these numbers," Selzer said.

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No clue but if she is right all other polls are wrong. Sorry not buying that all polls are way off and she is correct.

backintexas2013 said:

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No clue but if she is right all other polls are wrong. Sorry not buying that all polls are way off and she is correct.

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Not even Iowa polls are wrong. But every poll across the entire Midwest would be way way off. No way I'm buying this. Not even a little bit

These pollsters are always right. I remember right up until they started counting votes, hildabeast was going to beat Trump.

JB99 said:

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backintexas2013 said:

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No clue but if she is right all other polls are wrong. Sorry not buying that all polls are way off and she is correct.

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Not even Iowa polls are wrong. But every poll across the entire Midwest would be way way off. No way I'm buying this. Not even a little bit

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Damn so this election is over before it even got started...

FireAg said:

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Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump wins Iowa by at least 8. .

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Then why would her polling be so terrible all of a sudden?

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She hates Trump. Just look at the recalled vote. She sold out her credibility.

Mathematically, this result should be at least a Trump+7, the same as their 2016 and 2020 polls. Same crossover.

Ann Selzer is throwing away her reputation for a suppression poll. I’ll delete my channel if this result is even within seven points of reality. pic.twitter.com/fhaDMa0h2b

— Red Eagle Politics (@RedEaglePatriot) November 2, 2024