Trump NH win means bed early with no concern about Rust Belt.
FireAg said:
If that NH vote could verify, this thing is over…
Fingers crossed…
that lady shredded her. I encourage everyone to watch some of those clips on X.nortex97 said:
Jake Sullivan's wife didn't do well against the Chinese immigrant, fyi.
Again, you are missing the point. if the polls are off by a couple of points (which they probably will be), all of those 50-50 bets are going to go in the same direction. This is not spins of a roulette wheel.Philip J Fry said:
It's not faulty when the "experts" say there's a 50-50 chance in each state.
Yeah, if Trump takes NH and the Sun Belt, the "Blue Wall" doesn't matter.FireAg said:
If that NH vote could verify, this thing is over…
Fingers crossed…
sanangelo said:
Rasmussen Final polling. TLDR; Trump is up by 2-3 points everywhere except MI. Rasmussen believes their polling is reporting "slightly to the left" of Trump's internals. If NV and AZ are won by 5 points, Trump may pull Kari Lake (AZ) and Sam Brown (NV) into the Senate. McCormick in PA may also win because of an outperforming Trump.
And...
"Risk of vilolence in this country is a real thing. it will not be a good thing if this is dragged out [over days or weeks'," he said.
LINKQuote:
the Old Dominion may possibly be in play (RCP lists it as "Leans Harris") and the surprising part is the demographic that is narrowing the vice president's lead."Washington Secrets" columnist Paul Bedard writes about a new poll at the Washington Examiner:Quote:
A Virginia victory on Tuesday may be within reach for former President Donald Trump, according to new polling data showing that he is winning over a key voting group.
A new Cygnal survey shared with Secrets said that the Republican is gaining with non-college-educated voters, which is key to winning in the Commonwealth.
What's more, Virginia is rare in which voters feel good about the direction under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.
But in the commonwealth that hasn't picked a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, Vice President Kamala Harris also has some big positives, such as winning more college-educated voters than President Joe Biden did in 2020. And, said Cygnal, she leads Trump overall by seven points, 50%-43%.
Trump is visiting southern Virginia Saturday, hosting a rally in Salem, which is on I-81 near Blacksburg, home to Virginia Tech, and just west of Roanoke.
IOWA POLL with @RCDefense
— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 2, 2024
2024 presidential ballot
Trump 53%
Harris 43%
1% someone else
3% undecidedhttps://t.co/T4YIGrOIEt pic.twitter.com/ecuCbWkTLG
I think that's going to be Selzer.SwigAg11 said:
Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?
No.SwigAg11 said:
Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?
#NEW FINAL VIRGINIA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2024
🔵 Harris: 45%
🔴 Trump: 45%
Chism Strategies | 10/28-30 | LVs
VIRGINIA SENATE
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024
🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV
aggiehawg said:#NEW FINAL VIRGINIA poll
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2024
🔵 Harris: 45%
🔴 Trump: 45%
Chism Strategies | 10/28-30 | LVs
Doesn't Chism lean left?
Surprising, indeed! Did not expect that! At all!policywonk98 said:VIRGINIA SENATE
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024
🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV
policywonk98 said:VIRGINIA SENATE
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024
🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV
Quote:
While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden's 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris.
However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).
This is a good time to remind any Democrats who broke out into a cold sweat reading this that every survey has a margin of error, and ours would still allow for the possibility that Harris is up by the 6 points that the Washington Post poll pegged her lead at earlier this month.
It is also worth noting that the 2020 recalled vote in our survey is only Biden +5.5% in a state he won by 10% four years ago. We decided not to weight by recalled vote, for all the reasons Nate Cohn and others have laid out, and because of our own understanding of the dynamics at play here. But if the electorate looks like 2020, this survey likely underestimates Harris and Kaine by a few points.
In spite of our concerns, we feel it is important to publish outlier surveys like this one. All pollsters get results like these, which fall a few points outside the expected results or the average of other pollsters, and there is always pressure to suppress or play down such results, leading to herding. Given our confidence in our methodology, we see no reason to hide or attempt to manipulate the results. The numbers are what they are.
I think the Des Moines Register will have that poll result at 6pm tonight.SwigAg11 said:
Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?
aggiehawg said:Surprising, indeed! Did not expect that! At all!policywonk98 said:VIRGINIA SENATE
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024
🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%
10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV
Thanks. Thought I was recalling that correctly.Philip J Fry said:
Chism is a democrat pollster.