In the comments the pollster states they used D+1 nationally, but D+0 is also really likely. Basically, their numbers line up if you compare against pollsters that have R+1-3 nationally.

So, it does appear this pollster is lining up pretty well with some of the more accurate pollsters from previous elections.

FireAg said:

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If that NH vote could verify, this thing is over…

Fingers crossed…

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Nope. Fox just called AZ for Harris!

Seriously, though NH does this?

It's interesting to follow these polls and it's good to see they are across the board far less favorable for the regime than they were for Hillary 8 years ago or Biden 4 years ago. It will be fascinating to see if that's because the pollsters finally made the proper adjustments to their models or if it means Kamala is looking at a Carter / Mondale / Dukakis style ass kicking. I just can't be satisfied that these polls take the fraud and shenanigans into account as the regime establishment controls mass mailed ballot harvesting as well as the tabulation process in the big cities to enable the achievement of predetermined results again.

RR showing Trump +3 explained, nationally in their final.

NH will be called the night of the election. Tiny state, no early voting, etc. The US House race hasn't had a lot of good polling there (D+10 or so, only two polls), but Jake Sullivan's wife didn't do well against the Chinese immigrant, fyi.

nortex97 said:

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Jake Sullivan's wife didn't do well against the Chinese immigrant, fyi.

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that lady shredded her. I encourage everyone to watch some of those clips on X.

Philip J Fry said:

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It's not faulty when the "experts" say there's a 50-50 chance in each state.

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Again, you are missing the point. if the polls are off by a couple of points (which they probably will be), all of those 50-50 bets are going to go in the same direction. This is not spins of a roulette wheel.

I love how all of these chest beating democrats show up now but were no where to be found during deep dives into the obvious poll flaws favoring democrats.

Inflated women % voting. Inflated minority participation. Inflated D vs R weighting.

It is clear people can't or refuse to understand how the weighting aspect of polls is just as significant as the raw data. People coming in with but the polls are unbiased have missed some great discussions showing how the weighting is clearly biased. And the polls have not corrected it.

I do love the arrogance and confidence by the doom and gloomers.

Rasmussen Final polling. TLDR; Trump is up by 2-3 points everywhere except MI. Rasmussen believes their polling is reporting "slightly to the left" of Trump's internals. If NV and AZ are won by 5 points, Trump may pull Kari Lake (AZ) and Sam Brown (NV) into the Senate. McCormick in PA may also win because of an outperforming Trump.

And...

"Risk of vilolence in this country is a real thing. it will not be a good thing if this is dragged out [over days or weeks'," he said.

FireAg said:

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If that NH vote could verify, this thing is over…

Fingers crossed…

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Yeah, if Trump takes NH and the Sun Belt, the "Blue Wall" doesn't matter.

I'll believe it when I see it

sanangelo said:

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Rasmussen Final polling. TLDR; Trump is up by 2-3 points everywhere except MI. Rasmussen believes their polling is reporting "slightly to the left" of Trump's internals. If NV and AZ are won by 5 points, Trump may pull Kari Lake (AZ) and Sam Brown (NV) into the Senate. McCormick in PA may also win because of an outperforming Trump.

And...

"Risk of vilolence in this country is a real thing. it will not be a good thing if this is dragged out [over days or weeks'," he said.

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Edit to add that Mark at Rasmussen said NH and VA are in play and if Trump takes one of them the blue wall doesn't matter... Not that it matters at all anyway. Mark said Trump will sweep all 7 battleground states.

Quote:

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the Old Dominion may possibly be in play (RCP lists it as "Leans Harris") and the surprising part is the demographic that is narrowing the vice president's lead."Washington Secrets" columnist Paul Bedard writes about a new poll at the Washington Examiner:

Quote:

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A Virginia victory on Tuesday may be within reach for former President Donald Trump, according to new polling data showing that he is winning over a key voting group.

A new Cygnal survey shared with Secrets said that the Republican is gaining with non-college-educated voters, which is key to winning in the Commonwealth.

What's more, Virginia is rare in which voters feel good about the direction under Republican Gov. Glenn Youngkin.

But in the commonwealth that hasn't picked a Republican presidential candidate in 20 years, Vice President Kamala Harris also has some big positives, such as winning more college-educated voters than President Joe Biden did in 2020. And, said Cygnal, she leads Trump overall by seven points, 50%-43%.

Trump is visiting southern Virginia Saturday, hosting a rally in Salem, which is on I-81 near Blacksburg, home to Virginia Tech, and just west of Roanoke.

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LINK

IOWA POLL with @RCDefense

2024 presidential ballot

Trump 53%
Harris 43%
1% someone else
3% undecidedhttps://t.co/T4YIGrOIEt pic.twitter.com/ecuCbWkTLG

— Emerson College Polling (@EmersonPolling) November 2, 2024

Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?

SwigAg11 said:

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Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?

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I think that's going to be Selzer.

SwigAg11 said:

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Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?

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No.

Also, in 2020, Trump won Iowa by 7.8 points. So that would appear to be an improvement.

Bodes well for Wisconsin and Minnesota

#NEW FINAL VIRGINIA poll

🔵 Harris: 45%
🔴 Trump: 45%

Chism Strategies | 10/28-30 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2024

Doesn't Chism lean left?

I know nothing about Chism, but I'll take it!

VIRGINIA SENATE

🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%

10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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#NEW FINAL VIRGINIA poll

🔵 Harris: 45%
🔴 Trump: 45%

Chism Strategies | 10/28-30 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) November 2, 2024

Doesn't Chism lean left?

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She's cooked

policywonk98 said:

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VIRGINIA SENATE

🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%

10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024

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Surprising, indeed! Did not expect that! At all!

policywonk98 said:

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VIRGINIA SENATE

🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%

10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024

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This one is pretty damn hard to believe. Kaine is an absolute dip****, but he is a highly popular 'moderate' in the Senate.

From their website's article:

Quote:

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While there have been few surveys of the state, those we have seen have mostly shown Harris performing close to Biden's 2020 numbers and Tim Kaine running significantly ahead of Harris.

However, our survey tells a different story, with Harris up by .7% (45.2%-44.5%), a statistical tie, and Kaine not leading his Republican opponent Hung Cao by much more (46.4%-44.9%).

This is a good time to remind any Democrats who broke out into a cold sweat reading this that every survey has a margin of error, and ours would still allow for the possibility that Harris is up by the 6 points that the Washington Post poll pegged her lead at earlier this month.

It is also worth noting that the 2020 recalled vote in our survey is only Biden +5.5% in a state he won by 10% four years ago. We decided not to weight by recalled vote, for all the reasons Nate Cohn and others have laid out, and because of our own understanding of the dynamics at play here. But if the electorate looks like 2020, this survey likely underestimates Harris and Kaine by a few points.

In spite of our concerns, we feel it is important to publish outlier surveys like this one. All pollsters get results like these, which fall a few points outside the expected results or the average of other pollsters, and there is always pressure to suppress or play down such results, leading to herding. Given our confidence in our methodology, we see no reason to hide or attempt to manipulate the results. The numbers are what they are.

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Chism is a democrat pollster.

Can't find anything about how accurate that poll has been.

To answer your question. Chism is a progressive firm. I don't know how good they are at this type of polling.

Them releasing this into the wild tells me they are worried about Democrat turnout in VA. Likely impacting their down ballot clients.

Letssss goooo Hung Cao!!!

Come on, Virginians!

trump is not winning NH or VA, and you should be suspicious of any polls suggesting otherwise

that said, a close loss in either would be a very bullish signal for trump

So impressive that you know this to be a fact.

SwigAg11 said:

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Is this the Iowa poll that everyone is waiting for?

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I think the Des Moines Register will have that poll result at 6pm tonight.

aggiehawg said:

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policywonk98 said:

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VIRGINIA SENATE

🟦Kaine: 46% (+1)
🟥Cao: 45%

10/28-10/30 | Chism Strategies | 520 LV

— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) November 2, 2024

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Surprising, indeed! Did not expect that! At all!

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Not surprising since they pulled their money from North Carolina and are using it in Virginia

Harris has basically given up on Georgia, NC, Arizona and Nevada.

Philip J Fry said:

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Chism is a democrat pollster.

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Thanks. Thought I was recalling that correctly.

I'm sorry, but the country simply needs someone in office named Hung Cao.