That's well within the MoE. That's where a lot of the polls were at in 2016, especially in the Rust Belt. Nate Silver started screaming at the Hillary campaign that she was in danger in a lot of states that she was just ignoring.

I had it on the EV thread this am but VA is absolutely polling very, very tight.

If that's accurate, I except Michigan to go Harris as well.

And Harris would win

Can't wait to model which polls were closest to the pin after this thing is over. Plus which ones appear to really shift ("correct") in the last few weeks. Ie, which ones are playing games vs playing it straight.

That lead pollster for Rasmussen (for instance) could make his name forever. Since he's been so adamant for so long.

FrioAg 00 said:

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Looking at Bovada, below are the swing states for Trump

AZ -300
GA -300
NC -275
Nev -180
Penn -160
Wisc -145
Mich -130

And for giggles, New Hampshire +400, Virginia +460, NM +650,

---

Virginia latest poll

Harris 48
Trump 47

can make a lot of money

dreyOO said:

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Can't wait to model which polls were closest to the pin after this thing is over. Plus which ones appear to really shift ("correct") in the last few weeks. Ie, which ones are playing games vs playing it straight.

That lead pollster for Rasmussen (for instance) could make his name forever. Since he's been so adamant for so long.

---

It's been entertaining to see some of the polls that were outliers start to trend where most other poles have been over that past month. Assuming they aren't wanting to look insignificant when 2026 elections come around.

💯. We may be at the point where if Harris wins, you'll get a narrative about how the polls were wrong again. But the polls show a really close race! The vibes have shifted disproportionately vs polls. https://t.co/RLpDPoMbPw

— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) October 25, 2024

This seems like a big deal. Is it a big deal?

I don't understand what he's saying…is he saying that his gut feel is wrong and the polls truly are too close to call?

I think what he is saying is if the election was tomorrow and the race is tight than the polls were right no matter who wins.

And right now I think that is a fair assessment. The pills are all calling for an extremely close race.

Hungry Ojos said:

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I thought Wisconsin was reliably red. Is it still in doubt?

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Uh what??!

when has Wisconsin been "reliably" red??!!/

Biden won it. and Obama won it. and John Kerry won it. and Al Gore won it

and Michael Dukakis won it!!

before 2016, only Reagan in 1984 won Wisconsin.

are you thinking of Alabama instead?!?!

FireAg said:

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I don't understand what he's saying…is he saying that his gut feel is wrong and the polls truly are too close to call?

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Giving himself an excuse whichever way the election goes? Seems a lot of that is going on the closer we get to ED.

agsalaska said:

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I think what he is saying is if the election was tomorrow and the race is tight than the polls were right no matter who wins.

And right now I think that is a fair assessment. The pills are all calling for an extremely close race.

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of course they are ignoring huge gains by the GOP in registration numbers in PA and Florida

and ignoring ACTUAL EARLY VOTING RESULTS

hopefully Trump does 2 points better than every polling average so the media can say "we told you it was close" and Trump still boat races her

He's saying the polls are showing Trump winning within the poll margin of error. So if Harris wins, the polls were wrong, but thats wrong because the polls are showing a tie.

Problem is, the polls were way off before in the battle grounds. If Harris wins, the narrative won't be that the polls were wrong. The narrative will be that massive election fraud occurred.

How much of those early voting gains are due to the candidate and his supporters emphasizing early voting? We'll probably know by ~3pm on ED.

Man I don't think he is ignoring anything. He is commenting specifically about the polling. And he is right.

But yes I agree. I'm hoping for the same thing.

what's the reputation on this pollster Democracy Institute?
seems a bit insane for the good guys

👀 National Trump +3. Arizona Trump +5 Georgia Trump +4 Nevada Trump +4. Our new #DemocracyInstitute @Daily_Express @ExpressUSNews poll 👀 https://t.co/qiguWNcbAZ

— Patrick Basham (@PatrickBashamDI) October 25, 2024

LMCane said:

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what's the reputation on this pollster Democracy Institute?
seems a bit insane for the good guys

👀 National Trump +3. Arizona Trump +5 Georgia Trump +4 Nevada Trump +4. Our new #DemocracyInstitute @Daily_Express @ExpressUSNews poll 👀 https://t.co/qiguWNcbAZ

— Patrick Basham (@PatrickBashamDI) October 25, 2024

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Well, it's not used in the RealClearPolitics average. So, I'm not sure.

speaking of poll ratings, has there been a recent Morning Consult poll released? I got paywalled when I went to their site.

LMCane said:

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what's the reputation on this pollster Democracy Institute?
seems a bit insane for the good guys

👀 National Trump +3. Arizona Trump +5 Georgia Trump +4 Nevada Trump +4. Our new #DemocracyInstitute @Daily_Express @ExpressUSNews poll 👀 https://t.co/qiguWNcbAZ

— Patrick Basham (@PatrickBashamDI) October 25, 2024

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I found this article from Forbes where DI was pretty bad in 2020 by overestimating Trump big time.

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimrossi/2020/10/13/only-one-poll-shows-trump-leading-i-interviewed-the-polls-director/

normalhorn said:

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Repeat after me…Polymarket is not a poll, and should not be referenced in helping one feel confident about Trump's chances of winning the election

Reportedly, a French investor dropped millions on Trump's prop bet, and this was the reason for the shift in odds. True or not, using Polymarket to feel confident of Trump winning is more useless than established polls

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it says there is 2 billion invested in Polymarket, one bet is not going to change the market

and not only could betting markets be MORE in touch with reality- they are putting up their own money rather than leftist newspapers wanting to influence republican voters

and of course they are not analyzing JUST the polls - but like we and the campaigns are doing the internal polls, the media coverage, and the ACTUAL EARLY VOTING

is it dispositive? no

but it is more valuable than the latest Morning Consult Poll

Election 2024: Harris Now +1 Over Trump

Vice President Kamala Harris has pushed into the lead over former President Donald Trump in the latest daily tracking poll of the 2024 presidential election.

More At Rasmussen Reports:https://t.co/w8140u5LAG pic.twitter.com/R4adGOWp5P

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 25, 2024

Yikes. Does seem like polls are moving ever so slightly back towards Harris these last couple of days?

Harris won last nights poll by 5%. Likely a blip. We will see.

And .. the daily data chart for Oct 25, 2024 is out ...

Is everybody happy? No? Monday is another day ... https://t.co/MUdb6UOhqf pic.twitter.com/mVGF8eyVjp

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 25, 2024

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Harris won last nights poll by 5%. Likely a blip. We will see.

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That makes no sense...unless Trump is Hitler is actually resonating? She had a pretty bad week.

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It's daily snap polling with small sample sizes for the popular vote. If you look at the dashed lines in his graph, you can see wild swings all over the place.

I think really only the trends on his polling mean much of anything.

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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Harris won last nights poll by 5%. Likely a blip. We will see.

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That makes no sense...unless Trump is Hitler is actually resonating? She had a pretty bad week.

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Go back and look at their daily history. There have been lots of days where this happens, including a Harris +6 on October 8th. This is what happens with daily sampling and tracking. You get outliers.

Laughable

#NEW NEW HAMPSHIRE poll

🔵 Harris: 59% (+21)
🔴 Trump: 38%

Dartmouth College | 10/5-18 | N=2,202RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Laughable

#NEW NEW HAMPSHIRE poll

🔵 Harris: 59% (+21)
🔴 Trump: 38%

Dartmouth College | 10/5-18 | N=2,202RV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

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Dartmouth polls will never be respected after being that wrong.

I can't wait to see more Virginia polls and data. This is a wild election and I'm expecting a Rogan bump

Trump now with the popular vote lead. Haven't seen a republican do that in a long time.

cman1494 said:

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Yikes. Does seem like polls are moving ever so slightly back towards Harris these last couple of days?

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It's an ebb and flow the candidates are both so problematic very unlikely either candidate will be able to knockout the other one. Harris peaked about 6 days after the debate and according to Rasmussen who is consistent in their methodology shows Trump for the moment has peaked

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 49% (=)
🔵 Harris: 49%

🟡 Independents: Trump+3

Last poll: Harris+1

*Trump’s best Emerson national poll since Biden was in the race

Emerson | 10/23-24 | N=1,000LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

Even if accurate, it would still be a several point shift to Trump from 2020

#NEW VIRGINIA poll

🔵 Harris: 49% (+6)
🔴 Trump: 43%

Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔴 Trump: 48% (=)
🔵 Harris: 48%

TIPP | 10/23-25 | N=1,333LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Even if accurate, it would still be a several point shift to Trump from 2020

#NEW VIRGINIA poll

🔵 Harris: 49% (+6)
🔴 Trump: 43%

Washington Post | 10/19-23 | N=1,004LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 26, 2024

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While I am still very skeptical about the likelihood of Trump winning Virginia itself, what is more important about the polls there being as close as they are is what is says about the election elsewhere, as most states (as well as the nation as a whole), especially similarish states, tend to trend (or break) the same direction.

There are exceptions of course, where states buck national or regional trends, like California in 2020 that voted more for Trump in 2020 than 2016, but that is atypical. If Trump is keeping Virginia close, and polling better in places like NJ, NY, and Ohio than he polled in the last two elections... that probably means he is doing better in the rest of the Northern Rust Belt states as well... because they are unlikely to trend the opposite way as the states where is obviously polling better.

It could happen, but I don't think it's very likely that Trump will do better in VA, NY, and PA than in 2016/2020... but then will somehow do worse in PA than 2016/2020.