Muh Polls

787,237 Views | 5741 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by agsalaska
FrioAg 00
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:29p, 10/24/24
AG
Looking at Bovada, below are the swing states for Trump

AZ -300
GA -300
NC -275
Nev -180
Penn -160
Wisc -145
Mich -130

And for giggles, New Hampshire +400, Virginia +460, NM +650,


Reply Quote
2
1 edit
AtticusMatlock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FrioAg 00 • 8:31p, 10/24/24
Halperin was on Megyn Kelly and said the Democrats have New Hampshire internals showing them with a substantial lead. He seemed to think it was weird they sent Biden up there so he could gaffe about locking Trump up. He also thinks Trump will try to hold a rally in New Mexico and in Virginia before the election.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
SquirrellyDan
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:34p, 10/24/24
AG
For those who follow the polls regularly this election and previous, do you really think there's a chance Trump wins the national vote? I'm starting to buy into what I'm reading but can't imagine it actually happening.
Reply Quote
4
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:40p, 10/24/24
AG
Reply Quote
2
Ag In Ok
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:48p, 10/24/24
AG
Curious, and this was probably already addressed, but how are these results different than what we say in the previous midterms?
Reply Quote
mslags97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:45p, 10/24/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Much closer than I expected…. I don't think there is a chance, but this momentum appears to be real. And it's going in both directions. Positive for Trump and absolute disaster for kamala.
Reply Quote
6
JDUB08AG
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:57a, 10/25/24
AG
As of this moment, they are tied in the national RCP average
Reply Quote
6
TAMUallen
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:01a, 10/25/24
AG
Reply Quote
5
LMCane
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:11a, 10/25/24
pretty sure that Clinton final popular vote margin was around 2% and Biden around 4%

so the NY Times undercounted the Trump vote by about 2 points in 2016 and more than 5 points in 2020. hopefully this is polling just like 202o all over again

Reply Quote
2
1 edit
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to LMCane • 7:15a, 10/25/24
AG
NYT/Siena was also off an average of 5.5 across the states in 2020.
Reply Quote
1
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:34a, 10/25/24
AG
Crosstabs on the NYT poll…

Reply Quote
1
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:36a, 10/25/24
AG
Is there anything that really stands out in the cross tabs I should be looking for?
Reply Quote
AtticusMatlock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:39a, 10/25/24
The number of Republicans who answered the survey voting for Harris is minimal, and the lower propensity voters who didn't vote in 2020 are leaning Trump.

Pew Research estimates Biden won Hispanic voters by about 21 points in 2020. This poll, which is probable Dem-leaning, has Trump narrowing that gap to 10 points.
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:41a, 10/25/24
AG
Things that stand out to me are gender gap is where expected, Trump is running strong with Hispanics and in the Midwest, and he's holding on to more of his voters from 2020 than Kamala is of Biden voters.
Reply Quote
1
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
7:49a, 10/25/24
AG
Can't wait to see these graphics again:

Reply Quote
7
aezmvp
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:52a, 10/25/24
Yeah the indy split is significantly favorable to Harris which makes the top line weird. I think they skewed things to cya after the last two cycles.
Reply Quote
1
RangerRick9211
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TAMUallen • 8:27a, 10/25/24
AG
TAMUallen said:


Full-field (LV) is Trump +1.
Reply Quote
11
Quo Vadis?
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:02a, 10/25/24
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside
Reply Quote
1
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:08a, 10/25/24
AG
Reply Quote
2
NPH-
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Quo Vadis? • 11:11a, 10/25/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside

I guess I'm not educated enough on these polls to understand the impact of what I'm seeing because it seems like just right down the road some Dem poll will show the exact opposite and claim Kamala is winning.

I wish there was an ELI5 version of these things to help me understand and navigate the truth through all this.
Reply Quote
1
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:14a, 10/25/24
AG
Reply Quote
TexAgsSean
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to NPH- • 11:17a, 10/25/24
AG
NPH- said:
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside

I guess I'm not educated enough on these polls to understand the impact of what I'm seeing because it seems like just right down the road some Dem poll will show the exact opposite and claim Kamala is winning.

I wish there was an ELI5 version of these things to help me understand and navigate the truth through all this.


Polymarket isn't a poll, it's a betting site. The public is throwing more money on Trump because they believe he is going to win. About 2 or 3 weeks ago it was tied.
Reply Quote
1
NPH-
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to TexAgsSean • 11:19a, 10/25/24
AG
there you go, clearly not educated enough to know what I'm even looking at! Thanks for the clarification.
Reply Quote
1
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:20a, 10/25/24
AG
If that's the polling, I'd wager he's actually ahead by another two points or more which would put him over 50%.

That's the last thing public pollsters would want to admit this late. But does remind me of 1980 when Reagan came "roaring back" in the polls with three weeks to go. My suspicion is now that he was very close or ahead way before that but the pollsters didn't want to go there until they had to.
Reply Quote
3
policywonk98
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:21a, 10/25/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Halperin was on Megyn Kelly and said the Democrats have New Hampshire internals showing them with a substantial lead. He seemed to think it was weird they sent Biden up there so he could gaffe about locking Trump up. He also thinks Trump will try to hold a rally in New Mexico and in Virginia before the election.


Very surprised it took this long. Perhaps it's more expensive to poll in New Mexico than I think it is. I was saying months ago that there is no real polling in NM yet and that there might be a path to victory for Trump in NM if the polling in Nevada is real.

Maybe Trump campaign was doing some under the radar polling and sitting on results to try and prevent Dems from being alerted to their plans to make a run at it late in the cycle as their "October surprise".



Reply Quote
1
Hungry Ojos
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:23a, 10/25/24
I thought Wisconsin was reliably red. Is it still in doubt?
Reply Quote
normalhorn
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
11:25a, 10/25/24
Repeat after me…Polymarket is not a poll, and should not be referenced in helping one feel confident about Trump's chances of winning the election

Reportedly, a French investor dropped millions on Trump's prop bet, and this was the reason for the shift in odds. True or not, using Polymarket to feel confident of Trump winning is more useless than established polls
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
Reply Quote
9
4stringAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:26a, 10/25/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
I thought Wisconsin was reliably red. Is it still in doubt?
I think its always hovered +/- 1 pt in either direction from what I've seen on the polls.
Reply Quote
Philip J Fry
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:28a, 10/25/24
AG
Again,

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin/

2 times in a row they over stated democrat support in the battle grounds. If they are even half as wrong as they've been, it will be a blow out
Reply Quote
7
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:01p, 10/25/24
AG
Also, Redfield and Wilton was off on their polls by almost 7 points on average in 2020 (pretty much exclusively under polling Trump support). They were in the bottom 4 of least accurate pollsters in 2020.
Reply Quote
2
1 edit
texagbeliever
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:06p, 10/25/24
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside


I think the newspapers declining to endorse plus the early election figures have those in the know, knowing the outcome.
Reply Quote
1
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:07p, 10/25/24
AG
Charge your phone!

Also, with some polls giving their final numbers, these betting market posts may be all we get as far as projections until the counting is in.
Reply Quote
1 edit
AtticusMatlock
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:07p, 10/25/24
Reply Quote
3
LMCane
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:14p, 10/25/24
I Know I am going to wake up in a few hours and be faced with reality of Kamala up +6 across the board.

this can't be real:

Reply Quote
3
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to AtticusMatlock • 12:21p, 10/25/24
AG
He's a Dem pol who has gone around the bend, IMO. Abortion is not the huge issue it was in 2022.

And why are they polling 8 year olds?/sarc at the typo.
Reply Quote
1
First Page Last Page
Page 132 of 165 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.