Muh Polls

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FrioAg 00
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8:29p, 10/24/24
AG
Looking at Bovada, below are the swing states for Trump

AZ -300
GA -300
NC -275
Nev -180
Penn -160
Wisc -145
Mich -130

And for giggles, New Hampshire +400, Virginia +460, NM +650,


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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to FrioAg 00 • 8:31p, 10/24/24
Halperin was on Megyn Kelly and said the Democrats have New Hampshire internals showing them with a substantial lead. He seemed to think it was weird they sent Biden up there so he could gaffe about locking Trump up. He also thinks Trump will try to hold a rally in New Mexico and in Virginia before the election.
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SquirrellyDan
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8:34p, 10/24/24
AG
For those who follow the polls regularly this election and previous, do you really think there's a chance Trump wins the national vote? I'm starting to buy into what I'm reading but can't imagine it actually happening.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:40p, 10/24/24
AG
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Ag In Ok
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8:48p, 10/24/24
AG
Curious, and this was probably already addressed, but how are these results different than what we say in the previous midterms?
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mslags97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:45p, 10/24/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Much closer than I expected…. I don't think there is a chance, but this momentum appears to be real. And it's going in both directions. Positive for Trump and absolute disaster for kamala.
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JDUB08AG
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6:57a, 10/25/24
AG
As of this moment, they are tied in the national RCP average
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TAMUallen
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7:01a, 10/25/24
AG
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LMCane
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7:11a, 10/25/24
pretty sure that Clinton final popular vote margin was around 2% and Biden around 4%

so the NY Times undercounted the Trump vote by about 2 points in 2016 and more than 5 points in 2020. hopefully this is polling just like 202o all over again

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SwigAg11
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In reply to LMCane • 7:15a, 10/25/24
AG
NYT/Siena was also off an average of 5.5 across the states in 2020.
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Captn_Ag05
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7:34a, 10/25/24
AG
Crosstabs on the NYT poll…

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SwigAg11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:36a, 10/25/24
AG
Is there anything that really stands out in the cross tabs I should be looking for?
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AtticusMatlock
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:39a, 10/25/24
The number of Republicans who answered the survey voting for Harris is minimal, and the lower propensity voters who didn't vote in 2020 are leaning Trump.

Pew Research estimates Biden won Hispanic voters by about 21 points in 2020. This poll, which is probable Dem-leaning, has Trump narrowing that gap to 10 points.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:41a, 10/25/24
AG
Things that stand out to me are gender gap is where expected, Trump is running strong with Hispanics and in the Midwest, and he's holding on to more of his voters from 2020 than Kamala is of Biden voters.
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nortex97
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7:49a, 10/25/24
AG
Can't wait to see these graphics again:

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aezmvp
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 7:52a, 10/25/24
Yeah the indy split is significantly favorable to Harris which makes the top line weird. I think they skewed things to cya after the last two cycles.
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RangerRick9211
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In reply to TAMUallen • 8:27a, 10/25/24
AG
TAMUallen said:


Full-field (LV) is Trump +1.
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Quo Vadis?
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11:02a, 10/25/24
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside
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Captn_Ag05
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11:08a, 10/25/24
AG
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NPH-
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 11:11a, 10/25/24
AG
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside

I guess I'm not educated enough on these polls to understand the impact of what I'm seeing because it seems like just right down the road some Dem poll will show the exact opposite and claim Kamala is winning.

I wish there was an ELI5 version of these things to help me understand and navigate the truth through all this.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:14a, 10/25/24
AG
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TexAgsSean
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In reply to NPH- • 11:17a, 10/25/24
AG
NPH- said:
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside

I guess I'm not educated enough on these polls to understand the impact of what I'm seeing because it seems like just right down the road some Dem poll will show the exact opposite and claim Kamala is winning.

I wish there was an ELI5 version of these things to help me understand and navigate the truth through all this.


Polymarket isn't a poll, it's a betting site. The public is throwing more money on Trump because they believe he is going to win. About 2 or 3 weeks ago it was tied.
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NPH-
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In reply to TexAgsSean • 11:19a, 10/25/24
AG
there you go, clearly not educated enough to know what I'm even looking at! Thanks for the clarification.
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:20a, 10/25/24
AG
If that's the polling, I'd wager he's actually ahead by another two points or more which would put him over 50%.

That's the last thing public pollsters would want to admit this late. But does remind me of 1980 when Reagan came "roaring back" in the polls with three weeks to go. My suspicion is now that he was very close or ahead way before that but the pollsters didn't want to go there until they had to.
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policywonk98
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 11:21a, 10/25/24
AG
AtticusMatlock said:
Halperin was on Megyn Kelly and said the Democrats have New Hampshire internals showing them with a substantial lead. He seemed to think it was weird they sent Biden up there so he could gaffe about locking Trump up. He also thinks Trump will try to hold a rally in New Mexico and in Virginia before the election.


Very surprised it took this long. Perhaps it's more expensive to poll in New Mexico than I think it is. I was saying months ago that there is no real polling in NM yet and that there might be a path to victory for Trump in NM if the polling in Nevada is real.

Maybe Trump campaign was doing some under the radar polling and sitting on results to try and prevent Dems from being alerted to their plans to make a run at it late in the cycle as their "October surprise".



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Hungry Ojos
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:23a, 10/25/24
I thought Wisconsin was reliably red. Is it still in doubt?
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normalhorn
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11:25a, 10/25/24
Repeat after me…Polymarket is not a poll, and should not be referenced in helping one feel confident about Trump's chances of winning the election

Reportedly, a French investor dropped millions on Trump's prop bet, and this was the reason for the shift in odds. True or not, using Polymarket to feel confident of Trump winning is more useless than established polls
...take it easy on me, I'm a normal horn
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4stringAg
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:26a, 10/25/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
I thought Wisconsin was reliably red. Is it still in doubt?
I think its always hovered +/- 1 pt in either direction from what I've seen on the polls.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:28a, 10/25/24
AG
Again,

https://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/polling-error-in-2016-2020-look-out-for-wisconsin/

2 times in a row they over stated democrat support in the battle grounds. If they are even half as wrong as they've been, it will be a blow out
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SwigAg11
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 12:01p, 10/25/24
AG
Also, Redfield and Wilton was off on their polls by almost 7 points on average in 2020 (pretty much exclusively under polling Trump support). They were in the bottom 4 of least accurate pollsters in 2020.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:06p, 10/25/24
Quo Vadis? said:
Trump back over a delta of 30% on poly market. Nearing his all time high after the media broadside


I think the newspapers declining to endorse plus the early election figures have those in the know, knowing the outcome.
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 12:07p, 10/25/24
AG
Charge your phone!

Also, with some polls giving their final numbers, these betting market posts may be all we get as far as projections until the counting is in.
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AtticusMatlock
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12:07p, 10/25/24
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LMCane
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12:14p, 10/25/24
I Know I am going to wake up in a few hours and be faced with reality of Kamala up +6 across the board.

this can't be real:

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aggiehawg
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In reply to AtticusMatlock • 12:21p, 10/25/24
AG
He's a Dem pol who has gone around the bend, IMO. Abortion is not the huge issue it was in 2022.

And why are they polling 8 year olds?/sarc at the typo.
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