Muh Polls

787,236 Views | 5741 Replies | Last: 3 hrs ago by agsalaska
LMCane
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good news from PA

Quo Vadis?
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Big movement on Polymarket, about a 10 point narrowing. Trump now 60-40. I'm guessing some are getting spooked about the full on fabrication attack
nortex97
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AG
Good data:
Quote:

Former President Donald Trump is receiving increased support among Latino and black male voters, according to a recent survey.

A GenForward survey, conducted between September 26, 2024-October 6, 2024, at the University of Chicago found that among 2,359 eligible voters surveyed, 14 percent of black men found Trump favorable, while 25 percent found him somewhat favorable.

The survey also found that 18 percent of Latino men had a "very favorable" view of Trump, while 30 percent had a "somewhat favorable" view of Trump.

Among black male voters surveyed, 28 percent had a "very favorable" view of Vice President Kamala Harris, while 33 percent had a "somewhat favorable" view of Harris. The survey also found that 13 percent of Latino men viewed Harris favorably, while 25 percent had a "somewhat favorable" view of her.

The survey comes as a recent New York Times/Siena College poll found that 56 percent of Latino voters supported Harris. This represented a decrease from 2016 when 68 percent of Latino voters supported the Democratic candidate for president, and from 2020 when 62 percent of Latino voters supported the Democrat candidate, according to the Hill.


Been listening to this one, gist of it is discussion around the 'quality' polls coming around to Trump being up 2 or 3 late in the cycle to match Rasmussen, and polymarket etc. showing him up big in the battleground states.


Trump is off 3 points from his high on polymarket but some of that is just noise imho from all the Hitler/groping accusations, and will probably evaporate over the weekend with the Rogan show and mockery of how silly the charges are. His battleground state odds/prices haven't really moved much.
ts5641
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Things keep trending in the right direction. Overcome the cheating, get out and vote and I think we might actually win this thing.
TheBonifaceOption
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TheBonifaceOption
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Cnbc has Trump winning the popular vote




popcorn
FireAg
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AG
The CNN Town Hall with Harris last night is getting mostly poor reviews for her…

Will be interesting to see how this is baked into polling over the next handful of days…

Particularly bad was her handling of immigration, and Anderson Cooper didn't let her off the hook about her flip-flop on border walls…

Polling tells us that immigration is one of the top concerns of voters this cycle, so polling should move further toward Trump after last night's stumble…

Starting to get very interesting…
rathAG05
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AG
I didn't even know that was happening and I stay pretty plugged in. I doubt anyone is paying much attention to her anymore.
Quo Vadis?
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TheBonifaceOption said:




Trump over 50%
FireAg
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AG
Quo Vadis? said:

TheBonifaceOption said:




Trump over 50%

To me, the more we see 50+, the worse writing will appear on the wall…

Polling north of 50 is typically the tell tale sign…
Captn_Ag05
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AG
HeardAboutPerio
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AG
FireAg said:

Quo Vadis? said:

TheBonifaceOption said:




Trump over 50%

To me, the more we see 50+, the worse writing will appear on the wall…

Polling north of 50 is typically the tell tale sign…


Worse meaning what Fire? Worse for Harris in terms of it it's over? Sorry if I'm being dense, but I'm so concerned the weighting of these polls has over corrected from years past.
SwigAg11
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AG
Captn_Ag05 said:



RMG was off by About 3.84 points in 2020. If they are off by even a fraction of that this time around, then that is an electoral college landslide.
FireAg
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AG
I don't think I said "worse"…

In my opinion, any R polling at or above 50% means it's their race to lose…
Redassag94
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AG
SwigAg11 said:

Captn_Ag05 said:



RMG was off by About 3.84 points in 2020. If they are off by even a fraction of that this time around, then that is an electoral college landslide.
is RMG different from Rasmussen itself?
Vitani
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AG
Scott Rasmussen left Rasmussen Reports in 2013 and founded Rasmussen Media Group. So the RMG polls are his polls and not the Rasmussen that you see with the daily tracker.
nortex97
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AG
When a challenger hits 50 (late in the cycle especially), it's generally over for the incumbent. In fact, the rule prior to that has always been that the incumbent needs to be the one to crest 50 or they are in trouble. We don't have a lot of presidential candidates that have hit 50% though over the past 40 or so years. In individual state polls, the rule still basically applies though.







These just aren't the kind of issues/statistics either side can pull a lever and flip. Bimbo's and Hitler won't make a difference, imho. The remnant of undecided voters are likely to go the challenger's way the last few weeks, and then it is really just about turnout.
aginresearch
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AG
Late deciding voters are breaking to Trump. All the polls are starting to reflect this. This should not be a shock as most people, as reflected in the poll above, think their lives are materially worse than four years ago. Bad news for the "incumbent" running for re-election.

There is a decent probability now that Trump wins the popular vote and that will result in a landslide electoral college win. The rust belt states are all trending Trump.
Captn_Ag05
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AG
From Trump plus 3 to 2

FireAg
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AG
That's the daily poll?
Captn_Ag05
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AG
yes
FireAg
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AG
So fluctuation not surprising…

Got it…
aggiehawg
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AG
Poll related because they must be seeing something to prompt this tease.



Quote:

Lara Trump, our incredibly smart and talented Republican National Committee Co-Chair who did a fantastic job this week on the "Breakfast Club" program, will be joining Governor Glenn Youngkin at a rally in the Commonwealth of Virginia this Saturday to encourage everyone to VOTE EARLY. Glenn has given the people of Virginia great confidence their vote will be SECURE and ONLY ALL LEGAL VOTES WILL BE COUNTED. In fact, Virginia early vote is looking tremendous enough for the GOP that perhaps Lara is not the only TRUMP you will see in the Commonwealth before Election Day. Stay tuned
LMCane
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more good news. keep it coming USA!

LMCane
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FireAg said:

The CNN Town Hall with Harris last night is getting mostly poor reviews for her…

Will be interesting to see how this is baked into polling over the next handful of days…

Particularly bad was her handling of immigration, and Anderson Cooper didn't let her off the hook about her flip-flop on border walls…

Polling tells us that immigration is one of the top concerns of voters this cycle, so polling should move further toward Trump after last night's stumble…

Starting to get very interesting…

Elon just tweeted a new poll that shows inflation / economy number one and strangely "right to free speech" as number two issue of concern.

that should help the GOP even more hopefully
LMCane
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what is strange is we are LITERALLY already voting for a week in Nevada and the GOP has a 80,000 vote lead
Captn_Ag05
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AG
16k, not 80k. Still a great number for Rs there.
Barnyard96
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AG
Are we allowed to talk about early voting now on this thread? Seems very relevant now thats its started and there is real data.
txags92
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AG
Barnyard96 said:

Are we allowed to talk about early voting now on this thread? Seems very relevant now thats its started and there is real data.
There is a separate thread for it already started. I would suggest discussing it there and letting this one stay focused on polls.
HeardAboutPerio
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AG
Thanks! Fingers crossed!
Quo Vadis?
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Trump slowly and steadily clawing back to his all time high in polymarket.

Was at 60-40 24 hours ago after the smear campaign

Now back to 28+% margin


BaileyAg
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AG
What am i missing about Nate Silver?
He consistently has Harris winning by a slight margin.
Does he use some secret formula? Or aggregates?
His polling doesn't seem to ever shift even though others show a Trump upswing
McInnis 03
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AG
Quo Vadis? said:

Trump slowly and steadily clawing back to his all time high in polymarket.

Was at 60-40 24 hours ago after the smear campaign

Now back to 28+% margin





They bought the dip
Philip J Fry
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AG
He gives weighting factors to different polls. It just so happens that factors he gives to Harris leaning polls are heavier than Trump leaning polls, Weird
FireAg
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AG
BaileyAg said:

What am i missing about Nate Silver?
He consistently has Harris winning by a slight margin.
Does he use some secret formula? Or aggregates?
His polling doesn't seem to ever shift even though others show a Trump upswing

Silver just went on record within the last couple of days saying he thinks Trump is going to win…
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