Muh Polls

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txags92
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In reply to sam callahan • 11:27a, 10/9/24
AG
sam callahan said:
My favorite thing about this thread is that every poll that looks better for Kamala, my brain automatically discounts because it's not what I want.

I am aware of this psychological phenomenon and it still happens. I can't help but ponder how many people are less self aware and so easily manipulated.
I do the same, but it is made easier in the last week or two by the fact that the only polls still showing things looking good for her have historically been pretty inaccurate and they are increasingly looking like outliers compared to polling from outfits that have been more accurate historically.
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mslags97
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In reply to FireAg • 11:38a, 10/9/24
AG
FireAg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
This would actually be a slight improvement for Trump


It baffles me that Jews vote for the party that hates Jews…


This is the strangest thing to me as well. Especially with what has happened in this last year…. Makes absolutely no sense…
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SA68AG
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12:10p, 10/9/24
AG
For a group that are genuinely smart, they sure don't know how to read the room.
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Captn_Ag05
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1:13p, 10/9/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:16p, 10/9/24
AG
Wow, incredible.
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txags92
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:19p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
NM, read it wrong.
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1836er
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1:24p, 10/9/24
AG
From Quinippiac those are fantastic numbers for Trump.
Vance in '28
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Quo Vadis?
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1:31p, 10/9/24
Neither of those states vote to the left of PA, how odd. But fantastic news for Trump either way and seems to bolster the rumors about the "internals" we've been hearing.
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Ag06Law
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:37p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Really odd results. Can't see PA going blue with WI and MI going red. That said, if MI and WI go red, then PA is likely no longer a must win for Trump.
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Captn_Ag05
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1:45p, 10/9/24
AG
Wisconsin is the most likely to go red. Followed by PA and then MI. At least typically. This election has been anything buy typical.
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1836er
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:28p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Wisconsin is the most likely to go red. Followed by PA and then MI. At least typically. This election has been anything buy typical.
This. As Captn_Ag05 and others have said, WI typically polls to the right of the other two, but votes to the left.

My expectation would be for that to be the case this time, but I wouldn't be that surprised if PA edges out WI this time.

If the post-Trump GOP plays its cards right in fully committing to its post-neoconservative, MAGA/America First direction, all three of these states should eventually become more solid Republican states... more like Ohio.
Vance in '28
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nortex97
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2:35p, 10/9/24
AG
Nate says; no biggie…so far. And somehow interprets recent polls in PA as good for Kamala.

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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:55p, 10/9/24
AG
He's referring to the same quinnipiac poll. Harris was up I think +3
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



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Captn_Ag05
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3:01p, 10/9/24
AG
Nate may need to go run his "model" again

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will25u
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3:06p, 10/9/24
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will25u
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3:08p, 10/9/24
If the pollsters haven't fixed their issues from 2016/2020, this will be a "blowout". Up to 312 for Trump still very much in play. A lot going to hinge on PA. And PA closes early in the night.
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will25u
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3:17p, 10/9/24
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Captn_Ag05
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4:42p, 10/9/24
AG
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Old McDonald
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In reply to will25u • 5:09p, 10/9/24
will25u said:
you can bet the harris campaign is sweating this one, if trump can eke out a win in MI and WI he doesn't even need PA, NC, or NV
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Captn_Ag05
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5:53p, 10/9/24
AG
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.

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BTHOB
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:57p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



That's outside the margin of error
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Waffledynamics
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6:10p, 10/9/24
AG
I just got called and polled by a firm called Dynata Global. Anyone know who uses them for their data?
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Legal Custodian
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:11p, 10/9/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
I just got called and polled by a firm called Dynata Global. Anyone know who uses them for their data?


I get calls all the time for them and just ignore them.
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1939
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:21p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



This makes no sense makes on the latest polls and RCP average.

I tried confirming this on their website and this is nowhere to be found.
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will25u
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6:29p, 10/9/24
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SwigAg11
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In reply to will25u • 6:46p, 10/9/24
AG
Are there really any inferences that can be gleaned from the betting markets?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 6:48p, 10/9/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Are there really any inferences that can be gleaned from the betting markets?
Money can be manipulative?

Kamala has so much money, she can skew those markets.
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4stringAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:52p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



This is weird. Rasmussen polls normally lean R correct? What's driving the last two nights for Kamala?
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aezmvp
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In reply to 4stringAg • 7:14p, 10/9/24
Daily responses vary a lot based on who you reach. Especially national polls. That's why they run a running average.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to BTHOB • 7:20p, 10/9/24
AG
Not really. +/-5 puts her at +1, which is in line with all the other national polls
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BTHOB
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:00p, 10/9/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Not really. +/-5 puts her at +1, which is in line with all the other national polls


Right. But puts her outside margin of error for the subject poll.

But, polls are garbage so….. no harm no foul??
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 1939 • 8:08p, 10/9/24
AG
It's behind a pay wall but they post their top line results daily on Twitter.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to BTHOB • 8:18p, 10/9/24
AG
Not sure what you're saying. Her being ahead in a national poll literally means nothing
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Barnyard96
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8:23p, 10/9/24
AG

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will25u
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8:38p, 10/9/24
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