Muh Polls

788,913 Views | 5744 Replies | Last: 1 day ago by ts5641
txags92
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to sam callahan • 11:27a, 10/9/24
AG
sam callahan said:
My favorite thing about this thread is that every poll that looks better for Kamala, my brain automatically discounts because it's not what I want.

I am aware of this psychological phenomenon and it still happens. I can't help but ponder how many people are less self aware and so easily manipulated.
I do the same, but it is made easier in the last week or two by the fact that the only polls still showing things looking good for her have historically been pretty inaccurate and they are increasingly looking like outliers compared to polling from outfits that have been more accurate historically.
Reply Quote
2
mslags97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to FireAg • 11:38a, 10/9/24
AG
FireAg said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
This would actually be a slight improvement for Trump


It baffles me that Jews vote for the party that hates Jews…


This is the strangest thing to me as well. Especially with what has happened in this last year…. Makes absolutely no sense…
Reply Quote
4
SA68AG
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
12:10p, 10/9/24
AG
For a group that are genuinely smart, they sure don't know how to read the room.
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:13p, 10/9/24
AG
Reply Quote
2
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:16p, 10/9/24
AG
Wow, incredible.
Reply Quote
1
txags92
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:19p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
NM, read it wrong.
Reply Quote
1 edit
1836er
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:24p, 10/9/24
AG
From Quinippiac those are fantastic numbers for Trump.
Vance in '28
Reply Quote
2
Quo Vadis?
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:31p, 10/9/24
Neither of those states vote to the left of PA, how odd. But fantastic news for Trump either way and seems to bolster the rumors about the "internals" we've been hearing.
Reply Quote
Ag06Law
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:37p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:


Really odd results. Can't see PA going blue with WI and MI going red. That said, if MI and WI go red, then PA is likely no longer a must win for Trump.
Reply Quote
6
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
1:45p, 10/9/24
AG
Wisconsin is the most likely to go red. Followed by PA and then MI. At least typically. This election has been anything buy typical.
Reply Quote
6
1836er
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:28p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Wisconsin is the most likely to go red. Followed by PA and then MI. At least typically. This election has been anything buy typical.
This. As Captn_Ag05 and others have said, WI typically polls to the right of the other two, but votes to the left.

My expectation would be for that to be the case this time, but I wouldn't be that surprised if PA edges out WI this time.

If the post-Trump GOP plays its cards right in fully committing to its post-neoconservative, MAGA/America First direction, all three of these states should eventually become more solid Republican states... more like Ohio.
Vance in '28
Reply Quote
1
1 edit
nortex97
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
2:35p, 10/9/24
AG
Nate says; no biggie…so far. And somehow interprets recent polls in PA as good for Kamala.

Reply Quote
agsalaska
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to nortex97 • 2:55p, 10/9/24
AG
He's referring to the same quinnipiac poll. Harris was up I think +3
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.



Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:01p, 10/9/24
AG
Nate may need to go run his "model" again

Reply Quote
2
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:06p, 10/9/24
Reply Quote
9
1 edit
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:08p, 10/9/24
If the pollsters haven't fixed their issues from 2016/2020, this will be a "blowout". Up to 312 for Trump still very much in play. A lot going to hinge on PA. And PA closes early in the night.
Reply Quote
3
1 edit
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
3:17p, 10/9/24
Reply Quote
5
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
4:42p, 10/9/24
AG
Reply Quote
Old McDonald
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 5:09p, 10/9/24
will25u said:
you can bet the harris campaign is sweating this one, if trump can eke out a win in MI and WI he doesn't even need PA, NC, or NV
Reply Quote
2
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
5:53p, 10/9/24
AG
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.

Reply Quote
BTHOB
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 5:57p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



That's outside the margin of error
Reply Quote
1
Waffledynamics
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:10p, 10/9/24
AG
I just got called and polled by a firm called Dynata Global. Anyone know who uses them for their data?
Reply Quote
Legal Custodian
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Waffledynamics • 6:11p, 10/9/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
I just got called and polled by a firm called Dynata Global. Anyone know who uses them for their data?


I get calls all the time for them and just ignore them.
Reply Quote
2
1939
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:21p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



This makes no sense makes on the latest polls and RCP average.

I tried confirming this on their website and this is nowhere to be found.
Reply Quote
1 edit
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
6:29p, 10/9/24
Reply Quote
4
SwigAg11
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to will25u • 6:46p, 10/9/24
AG
Are there really any inferences that can be gleaned from the betting markets?
Reply Quote
aggiehawg
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to SwigAg11 • 6:48p, 10/9/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
Are there really any inferences that can be gleaned from the betting markets?
Money can be manipulative?

Kamala has so much money, she can skew those markets.
Reply Quote
4
1 edit
4stringAg
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:52p, 10/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Overall a good polling day for Trump, but then the daily tracker for Rasmussen shows Harris winning the last two nights by the largest margins she has ever had and she is now ahead in their five day average for the first time.



This is weird. Rasmussen polls normally lean R correct? What's driving the last two nights for Kamala?
Reply Quote
aezmvp
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 4stringAg • 7:14p, 10/9/24
Daily responses vary a lot based on who you reach. Especially national polls. That's why they run a running average.
Reply Quote
Philip J Fry
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BTHOB • 7:20p, 10/9/24
AG
Not really. +/-5 puts her at +1, which is in line with all the other national polls
Reply Quote
BTHOB
User Profile Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:00p, 10/9/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Not really. +/-5 puts her at +1, which is in line with all the other national polls


Right. But puts her outside margin of error for the subject poll.

But, polls are garbage so….. no harm no foul??
Reply Quote
Captn_Ag05
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to 1939 • 8:08p, 10/9/24
AG
It's behind a pay wall but they post their top line results daily on Twitter.
Reply Quote
Philip J Fry
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
In reply to BTHOB • 8:18p, 10/9/24
AG
Not sure what you're saying. Her being ahead in a national poll literally means nothing
Reply Quote
Barnyard96
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:23p, 10/9/24
AG

Reply Quote
1
will25u
User Profile
Private Message
Ignore User Stop Ignoring
How long do you want to ignore this user?
24 hours One week Permanently Cancel
8:38p, 10/9/24
Reply Quote
First Page Last Page
Page 112 of 165 ▼
 
×
subscribe Verify your student status
See Subscription Benefits
Trial only available to users who have never subscribed or participated in a previous trial.