Captn_Ag05 said:

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I really dislike it when they push out battleground polls that are like this rather than by individual states. But, still, good news for Trump. Especially given the pollster

#NEW BATTLEGROUND poll

🔴 Trump: 48% (+1)
🔵 Harris: 47%

(AZ/GA/MI/NV/NC/PA/WI)

Ipsos | Sept. 24-Oct. 1 | N=1,598LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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They had Harris up 6 pts nationally their last poll on 9-23. Haha

2023NCAggies said:

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Michigan is a 0.7% RCP average lead for Harris now. It was 5.7 for Biden on election night. Won by 2.78%

Michigan is going to be interesting, A lot of country folks in Michigan, and union workers are not in lockstep with DEMs this election. Also the Muslim Mayor endorsing Trump did not help. Hezbollah getting torched isn't helping either.

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Trump has improved his standing with every key demographic in Michigan. I feel that the tide is turning there.

Quo Vadis? said:

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Informal poll

OMG... this reporter interviewed the striking port workers and asked if any of them support Harris - their reaction is HILARIOUS

"Harris supports the strike. She wanted to know how many folks support her .... Uhh... any hands? No hands... OK."

THIS IS IN NEW JERSEY

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/sjnWCIVA1f

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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Ouch. That will leave a mark. So somebody explain it to me, I keep seeing all the demographics that have traditionally leaned Dem that are moving hard right. What demographic are these polls over sampling to keep showing this as a toss up? The only one I am aware of that is going hard left is unmarried women. Is there really the depth of voters in that demographic to overcome all these others shifts to the right?

A few of these states have very small Hispanic populations (less than 7%). But another sign of movement towards Trump

#NEW BATTLEGROUND poll, among Hispanics

🟡 Total: Harris+16 [-17]
🟡 AZ: Harris+11 [-13]
🟡 GA: Harris+16 [-9]
🟡 NV: Harris+12 [-14]
🟡 NC: Harris+9 [-6]
🟡 PA: Harris+30 [-12]
🟡 WI: Harris+17 [-6]
🟡 MI: Harris+20 [+9]

[+/- from Biden 2020]

Latino Opinions | Sept. 17-22 |…

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

txags92 said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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Informal poll

OMG... this reporter interviewed the striking port workers and asked if any of them support Harris - their reaction is HILARIOUS

"Harris supports the strike. She wanted to know how many folks support her .... Uhh... any hands? No hands... OK."

THIS IS IN NEW JERSEY

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/sjnWCIVA1f

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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Ouch. That will leave a mark. So somebody explain it to me, I keep seeing all the demographics that have traditionally leaned Dem that are moving hard right. What demographic are these polls over sampling to keep showing this as a toss up? The only one I am aware of that is going hard left is unmarried women. Is there really the depth of voters in that demographic to overcome all these others shifts to the right?

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College educated whites continue to shift left. Men slightly, women by bigger margins.

NATIONAL POLL | MARIST

🔵 Harris: 50% (+2)
🔴Trump: 48%

Date: 9/27-10/1

— Quantus Insights (@QuantusInsights) October 3, 2024

You mean left?

Yes, sorry.

Yeah, nationally Latinos are about 11-12% of the vote and white voters are about 66%. If Trump loses a point in white voters, he'd need to increase his perfomance among latinos by 6 points to offset it.

Now, a place like Wisconsin it's 89% white to 3% Latino, so he'd need around a 30 point improvement among Latinos if he loses a point of the white vote. Additionally, white voters in WI used to around a 50%/50% college to non-college mix like 10 years. Now, it's 60%/40%, so all these trends are counteracting each other

TRM said:

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Yeah, nationally Latinos are about 11-12% of the vote and white voters are about 66%. If Trump loses a point in white voters, he'd need to increase his perfomance among latinos by 6 points to offset it.

Now, a place like Wisconsin it's 89% white to 3% Latino, so he'd need around a 30 point improvement among Latinos if he loses a point of the white vote. Additionally, white voters in WI used to around a 50%/50% college to non-college mix like 10 years. Now, it's 60%/40%, so all these trends are counteracting each other

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Hopefully white vote will be around 70%. If it is 66%, he is in trouble.

#NEW NEW HAMPSHIRE POLL

🔵 Harris: 51% (+7) [=]
🔴 Trump: 44% [+1]

[+/- from Sept. 12]

Saint Anselm College | Oct. 1-2 |

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

Quo Vadis? said:

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Informal poll

OMG... this reporter interviewed the striking port workers and asked if any of them support Harris - their reaction is HILARIOUS

"Harris supports the strike. She wanted to know how many folks support her .... Uhh... any hands? No hands... OK."

THIS IS IN NEW JERSEY

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/sjnWCIVA1f

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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To be fair at the end of the video I saw one hand at the back...but just one. Which actually is more damning because it shows it likely wasn't staged because if it was it would be 100%.

Has anyone compared 2024 demographic polls to 2016 BCE (before covid era). Curious if the percentage shifts are as dramatic.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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txags92 said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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Informal poll

OMG... this reporter interviewed the striking port workers and asked if any of them support Harris - their reaction is HILARIOUS

"Harris supports the strike. She wanted to know how many folks support her .... Uhh... any hands? No hands... OK."

THIS IS IN NEW JERSEY

🤣🤣 pic.twitter.com/sjnWCIVA1f

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 3, 2024

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Ouch. That will leave a mark. So somebody explain it to me, I keep seeing all the demographics that have traditionally leaned Dem that are moving hard right. What demographic are these polls over sampling to keep showing this as a toss up? The only one I am aware of that is going hard left is unmarried women. Is there really the depth of voters in that demographic to overcome all these others shifts to the right?

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College educated whites continue to shift left. Men slightly, women by bigger margins.

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STAFF: Not trying to derail the thread; trying to talk about poll demographics:

This shift in college educated people is true. Corporations, law firms, professional services firms, etc. have all gotten very involved in social causes/DEI efforts, etc. As a result, there is pressure to not be "MAGA" (perceived as racist). So, people who were formally conservativefor fiscal reasons (high earners who wanted low taxes) are now trending liberal for social reasons.

Again, not trying to debate the merits of any of these ideologies, just explaining the shift in the polling data for this demographic.

CNN's poll of polls gives Trump a nearly 70% chance of winning the election (68.4% to Kamala's 30.9% to be exact).

32 days to Election Day.

Harris-Walz was given almost the full backing of the media

T-ball interviews

Blatantly biased debate moderators

It may not matter... pic.twitter.com/Rbq9Xur4op

— Joe Concha (@JoeConchaTV) October 3, 2024

SWING STATE POLLING, 7 DAY AVERAGE

Warning: if you don't like the DATA, you can disagree, but this is what's been published publicly.

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

This set of polling averages considers the average of 2016/20 polling misses from the final week of those election cycles. pic.twitter.com/EXKqkiDAnG

— John Couvillon (@WinWithJMC) October 4, 2024

🚨 BREAKING: Wisconsin Democrats are worried after new internal polling finds Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D) only up 2 points against Eric Hovde (R), Axios reports.

"That is much closer than what public polling has shown for months."

"Multiple Democratic sources told Axios there are…

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

So it really comes down to whether these pollsters, after nearly a decade of under predicting Trump support somehow are now accurate.

If Wisconsin polls underestimate Trump by even half of what they did in 2016 or 2020, he wins by 2-3

— LionsTigersWings (@lltework) October 4, 2024

2020 to 2024 (To Date) Likely Voter Weights -

2020 we were weighted D37, R33, Ind 30 (D+4)
2024 we are weighted D35, R33, I32 (D+2)

Notice the change from Blue #'s to Red #'s
Trump is winning Independents in 2024. pic.twitter.com/tSte5rLnFx

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) October 3, 2024

The Rasmussen crew also has a video out on the polling margins, but I haven't watched this yet.

Good poll for Trump; Napolitan (RMG).

https://t.co/v37Utfm7ae

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) October 4, 2024

Quote:

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The latest Napolitan News national survey shows Vice President Kamala Harris and former President Donald Trump tied at 49% (including leaners). This is the first time the candidates have been tied in our national polling since mid-August.

Since then, Harris has consistently maintained a very modest lead. Last week, Harris had a two point edge.

Harris leads by five among women while Trump has a six point advantage among men.

Harris leads by an astounding 30 points among voters with a postgraduate degree (64% to 34%). Trump leads among all other voters by six (52% to 46%). Harris' lead among postgraduates highlights some of the disparity between Elites and everyday Americans. The Napolitan Institute released a report today further highlighting other disparities between the Elite 1% and the rest of America.

A tie in the popular vote would likely lead to an Electoral College victory for Trump. A two-point popular vote victory by Harris would make the Electoral College race a toss-up.

Polling released yesterday showed Trump leading by four in Florida. Other recent Napolitan News surveys have shown close races in Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, and Michigan. Trump has significant leads in Ohio and Montana.

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Crosstabs make sense to me;

North Carolina: Trump 51% Harris 47%
GOVERNOR: Stein (D) 53% Robinson (R) 38%
Conducted by @ScottWRasmussen for @NapolitanNews

780 LV, Sept 25-27

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) October 4, 2024

#NEW NEVADA POLL

🔵 Harris: 47% (+3)
🔴 Trump: 44%
🟡 Undecided: 4%
🟢 Other: 1%

Tarrance Group | Sept. 16-19 | N=600LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

#NEW NEVADA SENATE poll

🔵 Rosen: 48% (+7)
🔴 Brown: 41%
🟡 Undecided: 6%
🟢 Other: 1%

Tarrance Group | Sept. 16-19 | N=600LV

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

2 week old poll is weird for them to release.

Quote:

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The survey was conducted by The Tarrance Group, an experienced GOP opinion-taker in the Silver State, for the Democracy Defense Project, a bipartisan initiative dedicated to upholding the transparency, security and legitimacy of Nevada's elections. The poll surveyed 600 likely voters from throughout the state Sept. 16-19 via telephone and has a margin of error of 4.1 percentage points.

The poll also found that Harris leads Trump 47 percent to 44 percent, echoing a close race found in other recent polling. Four percent chose the unique Nevada option of "None of These Candidates," 4 percent were undecided and 1 percent chose a third-party candidate. Respondents also said they were more likely to distrust the American election system than Nevada's process.

Dave Sackett, partner at The Tarrance Group, the GOP pollster that conducted the survey, cautioned against placing too much faith in these results, especially given that the results fall within the margin of error and emphasizing that this is just a snapshot during that time period. Although the Democratic presidential candidate has won Nevada in the past four elections, the margin of victory has become increasingly smaller.

"There's just too much fluidity," Sackett said. "I think anybody who tells you that they know for certain

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Always important to remember that only 35% of the adult population has a post secondary degree and the percentage is where it is because of the number of adult 24-35 that have degrees. The voting ages(40+) that experience much higher turnout is down in the 20% range of those with college degrees or higher.

The trick is getting the working population without degrees engaged. They are historically low voter turnout. But this is the demographic that has helped Trump beat the polling data. It's very hard for pollsters to create models with those voters at their proper levels of participation.

Month old data but just published today

TEXAS SENATE poll:

🔴 Cruz: 46% (+6)
🔵 Allred: 40%
🟡 Undecided: 11%

CWS | Sept. 4-9 | N=504RV https://t.co/YpsI9gPGsc

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) October 4, 2024

🚨BREAKING:

Trump jumped to a 7 point lead over Kamala in the latest Rasmussen poll!

This is HUGE! pic.twitter.com/bDhVMZ6sFv

— Gunther Eagleman™ (@GuntherEagleman) October 4, 2024

I swear I can't understand the wild daily swings in this poll. Splain it to me Lucy!

Rockdoc said:

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I swear I can't understand the wild daily swings in this poll. Splain it to me Lucy!

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It is a smaller set of people polled, and the MOE is +/- 5 points. So even if it says he is up by 7, it could only be by 2.

Use it for trends, not necessarily daily numbers.

I just checked, and the final Rasmussen Poll for 2020 had Biden up by 1%. He ended up winning by more than that, but only because they run the score up in states like California and New York.

Either way, Rasmussen was closer than some of these other polls that had Biden by 8 or 10%.

Rockdoc said:

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I swear I can't understand the wild daily swings in this poll. Splain it to me Lucy!

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Neither can I. The statistician types will say it is the little changes daily in the sampling technique. Because I'm thinking normal people aren't liable to change their opinions like a light switch.

JayM said:

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Rockdoc said:

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I swear I can't understand the wild daily swings in this poll. Splain it to me Lucy!

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Neither can I. The statistician types will say it is the little changes daily in the sampling technique. Because I'm thinking normal people aren't liable to change their opinions like a light switch.

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With such a small sample size each day, having your demographic split in that sample off by just a few people from day to day will produce large changes in the poll result, hence the large MOE. To get a better sense of where things really are, look at the trend over multiple days. The trend is consistently showing a several point Trump advantage, even if there are days here and there where Kamala is shown ahead.

dirtylondrie712 said:

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I just checked, and the final Rasmussen Poll for 2020 had Biden up by 1%. He ended up winning by more than that, but only because they run the score up in states like California and New York.

Either way, Rasmussen was closer than some of these other polls that had Biden by 8 or 10%.

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The final margin was Biden +4.5%. Predictions of +1 and +8 were equally bad.

No one should care about the national polls

Philip J Fry said:

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No one should care about the national polls

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I tend to agree because of the inaccuracies... but funny enough... because a lot of these polls are consistently inaccurate, you can get good data by looking at their polls from previous elections.

It's particular interesting and entertaining this year because we can look at 2 previous election cycles of Trump vs. Democrat.