Muh Polls

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nortex97
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1:40p, 10/2/24
AG
WOW.

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Captn_Ag05
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3:19p, 10/2/24
AG
The result is actually 43-37. They have it posted incorrectly.

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Captn_Ag05
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3:20p, 10/2/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:26p, 10/2/24
AG
Not too surprising given a D+10 sample (LOL) coming from, literally, Doug Wilder's outfit (note the press release). Excerpt:

Quote:
With Virginians already voting in the presidential election, Democratic nominee Kamala Harris
leads Republican nominee Donald Trump 43% to 37%. This is a slight dip in support compared
with last month's VCU Wilder School Commonwealth Poll, which had Harris leading Trump
46% to 36%.

By party affiliation, almost 9 of 10 Democrats (86%) said they would vote for Harris, while 79%
of Republicans support Trump. Among Independents, Trump leads Harris 29% to 16%, with
16% saying they would not vote and 19% undecided. By age demographics, 18- to 24-year-olds
are breaking for Harris (42% to 37%), as they were in VCU Wilder School's previous poll in
early September. Interestingly, the trend among older voters, ages 55 to 65, continuing to support
Harris is seen in the new poll as well (56% to 36%).

L. Douglas Wilder, the 66th governor of Virginia, said, "The slip in the Harris lead, though not
alarming, should be a wake-up call, as the sampling error of plus or minus 4.64 sends a message.
Independents could make a real difference. The race in Virginia could be decided by who gets
their voters to turn out, and voting has already started."
This yet again re-confirms the independents breaking against Harris as we approach election week. The trend among older voters being +20 for Harris seems…absurd to me, but it's what they had to work with, obviously.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:31p, 10/2/24
AG
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aggiehawg
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3:33p, 10/2/24
AG


Background there, Philly is Ed Rendell's old stomping ground where he had a machine. I remember him complaining in 2008 that he needed more "walking around money" to get the working class and minority neighborhoods out to vote.
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theeyetest
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:36p, 10/2/24
nortex97 said:
WOW.



Makes sense. Sell trucks to a LOT of customers originally from Arab countries or East African countries and they skew probably 70% trump I would say.
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txags92
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In reply to theeyetest • 3:51p, 10/2/24
AG
theeyetest said:
nortex97 said:
WOW.



Makes sense. Sell trucks to a LOT of customers originally from Arab countries or East African countries and they skew probably 70% trump I would say.
Lots of small business owners in that demographic.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:51p, 10/2/24
AG
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Waffledynamics
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6:57p, 10/2/24
AG
HOW?!?!

Quote:
Harris leading by 4 points nationwide but most likely voters trust Trump to handle inflation, immigration and jobs: poll
https://nypost.com/2024/10/01/us-news/harris-ahead-by-4-points-nationwide-but-majority-of-likely-voters-prefer-trump-to-handle-inflation-immigration-and-jobs-poll/
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:02p, 10/2/24
Waffledynamics said:
HOW?!?!

Quote:
Harris leading by 4 points nationwide but most likely voters trust Trump to handle inflation, immigration and jobs: poll
https://nypost.com/2024/10/01/us-news/harris-ahead-by-4-points-nationwide-but-majority-of-likely-voters-prefer-trump-to-handle-inflation-immigration-and-jobs-poll/


There's a bunch of wonky stuff going on

Trump setting records with Hispanic, black, Arab, union support but still behind? I don't buy it
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TRM
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:02p, 10/2/24
AG
Who said the electorate isn't necessarily composed of rationale voters...

In other news,
Quote:
Most women (56%) also support Harris, whereas most men (51%) favor Trump.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:06p, 10/2/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
HOW?!?!

Quote:
Harris leading by 4 points nationwide but most likely voters trust Trump to handle inflation, immigration and jobs: poll
https://nypost.com/2024/10/01/us-news/harris-ahead-by-4-points-nationwide-but-majority-of-likely-voters-prefer-trump-to-handle-inflation-immigration-and-jobs-poll/
The (Canadian) Leger is…consistent, you have to give them that. ABC has them ranked 84th. 'Huge lead' LOL.
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nortex97
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5:14a, 10/3/24
AG
More on hispanics trending Trump, even in…gulp, Philadelphia/PA (and Nevada):
Quote:
Tony Fabrizio, a pollster for the Trump campaign, told NPR, "I don't care whose national poll you look at even yours, from NPR it is really very clear that she is underperforming with Hispanics, not only nationally, but in these two key states."
And in the critical swing state of Pennsylvania, the Philadelphia Inquirer reports the same shift is happening, even in deep blue Philly.
Quote:
Gabriel Lopez grew up in a family of Democrats in the Kensington neighborhood of deep-blue Philadelphia. So in 2016, the first presidential election he was old enough to vote in, he picked Hillary Clinton over Donald Trump.
But Lopez, now 27, says his views have changed. He switched his registration to Republican this year, and he plans to vote for Trump, who's running for president a third time...
Harris' best opportunity to run up her vote total is in Philly, where 20% of the state's Democrats live, but where Democrats bled more votes in 2020 than in any other county. Biden performed worse than Clinton in 41 of the city's 66 political wards...
The trend was consistent across racial groups, though it was most pronounced in majority-Latino neighborhoods.
The story offers this striking factoid about voter registration in the city.
Quote:
Since the end of 2023, the GOP gained more than 10,300 registrants in Philadelphia, while Democrats netted about 9,800, according to data from the Department of State. The number of unaffiliated voters is roughly flat.
But beyond the shift in registrations, Democrats may have an enthusiasm problem. One SEIU member told the Inquirer the biggest challenge was convincing people to vote at all.
A 17 point shift among 'non-college educated voters of color' toward Trump nationally:

(Also, LOL @ "News treason" as a user handle.)
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:16a, 10/3/24
[You've been earning timeouts on this thread because you insist on derailing from a discussion on polls, despite several clarifications and warnings that this thread isn't for your personal predictions or commentary on the election at large. Keep it to a discussion on polls on this thread and you're fine. If you want to expand beyond that, start a different thread or join an existing one -- Staff]
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:18a, 10/3/24
AG
I think they started a thread called "Early Voting Tracking Thread"

It can be found here:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3488894
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will25u
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8:21a, 10/3/24


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2023NCAggies
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In reply to BadMoonRisin • 8:27a, 10/3/24
BadMoonRisin said:
I think they started a thread called "Early Voting Tracking Thread"

It can be found here:
https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3488894
Thank you, apologies to the staff. Will not do it again
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Captn_Ag05
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8:38a, 10/3/24
AG


Their poll last month was Harris plus 3.7.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:45a, 10/3/24
AG


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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 10:04a, 10/3/24
Nice. McCormick is closing in fast. In your experience, are all senate polls this weird? I do not know what to believe, some look ridiculous they are so far apart.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 10:07a, 10/3/24
AG
Republicans have a history of closing strong in polling. It could be that they do attract more independents and soft Republicans as we get closer to elections or it could be that polling tries to get more accurate in their last polling.

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RGLAG85
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In reply to TRM • 10:17a, 10/3/24
AG
TRM said:
Who said the electorate isn't necessarily composed of rationale voters...

In other news,
Quote:
Most women (56%) also support Harris, whereas most men (51%) favor Trump.
Now break it down into married vs unmarried and you'll find the problem with our voting.

Last poll I saw was Trump around 60% with married women and >70% with married men.

This puts a lot of weight on young people, especially young women. Take that demographic out and the numbers would swing heavily Trump. This demographic has been heavily indoctrinated and looks to daddy, government, for support.
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SwigAg11
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In reply to RGLAG85 • 11:14a, 10/3/24
AG
RGLAG85 said:
TRM said:
Who said the electorate isn't necessarily composed of rationale voters...

In other news,
Quote:
Most women (56%) also support Harris, whereas most men (51%) favor Trump.
Now break it down into married vs unmarried and you'll find the problem with our voting.

Last poll I saw was Trump around 60% with married women and >70% with married men.

This puts a lot of weight on young people, especially young women. Take that demographic out and the numbers would swing heavily Trump. This demographic has been heavily indoctrinated and looks to daddy, government, for support.

I believe the 18-29 demographic that was largely Dem has been shifting hard to Rep the last few years.
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txags92
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:22a, 10/3/24
AG
SwigAg11 said:
RGLAG85 said:
TRM said:
Who said the electorate isn't necessarily composed of rationale voters...

In other news,
Quote:
Most women (56%) also support Harris, whereas most men (51%) favor Trump.
Now break it down into married vs unmarried and you'll find the problem with our voting.

Last poll I saw was Trump around 60% with married women and >70% with married men.

This puts a lot of weight on young people, especially young women. Take that demographic out and the numbers would swing heavily Trump. This demographic has been heavily indoctrinated and looks to daddy, government, for support.

I believe the 18-29 demographic that was largely Dem has been shifting hard to Rep the last few years.
The men in that demographic have gone hard to the right, the women have gone hard to the left. That is part of why the Dems are so heavily favored in the unmarried single female demographic.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to SwigAg11 • 11:35a, 10/3/24
Youth vote is swaying towards Rs. Definitely not the advantage DEMs had in 2020
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Captn_Ag05
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1:21p, 10/3/24
AG
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jr15aggie
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:25p, 10/3/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

I'm seeing/hearing a lot of this. Even in states Trump isn't going to win, such as NY and NJ... Harris's advantage has really declined (up to 10% in some cases) when comparing current polls to the same polls at the same time in 2020.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:32p, 10/3/24
AG
Thx for keeping this thread so well updated.

Separately, I'll just reiterate, trends matter;




And just to get this latest daily out of the way;
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Captn_Ag05
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2:04p, 10/3/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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2:18p, 10/3/24
If Trump wins the general election by two points we're not talking about NC or GA or AZ or even PA, Mi, or Wi; we're talking about MN, NH, VA and NM.

I cannot see him winning the popular vote but man it would make for an amazing night of tv
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Captn_Ag05
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2:21p, 10/3/24
AG
I really dislike it when they push out battleground polls that are like this rather than by individual states. But, still, good news for Trump. Especially given the pollster

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:24p, 10/3/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
I really dislike it when they push out battleground polls that are like this rather than by individual states. But, still, good news for Trump. Especially given the pollster



Yeah I hate that. If Trump is up 2-3% in NC, AZ, Ga, it means he's likely underwater or even in the other states, and he really needs at least one of the big ones
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:31p, 10/3/24
Michigan is a 0.7% RCP average lead for Harris now. It was 5.7 for Biden on election night. Won by 2.78%

Michigan is going to be interesting, A lot of country folks in Michigan, and union workers are not in lockstep with DEMs this election. Also the Muslim Mayor endorsing Trump did not help. Hezbollah getting torched isn't helping either.

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Quo Vadis?
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2:33p, 10/3/24
Informal poll

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