Disagree

aggiehawg said:

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Quote:

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This. People need to stop expecting the Amish to sway these polls. They aren't a huge force.

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Uhmm? Link for that? TIA.

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Per this site, <10% vote.

https://www.amishbaskets.com/blogs/blog/do-the-amish-vote-for-president?srsltid=AfmBOoqyuGAwq06fZdjELDAduISyuv_qHNKioDk0x11yJvB1s2CWDV_l

MONTANA poll by @RMG_Research

Senate
🟥 Tim Sheehy: 50%
🟦 Jon Tester: 43%

Last poll (8/14) - 🔵 Tester +5
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President
🟥 Trump: 59%
🟦 Harris: 38%

#60 (2.3/3.0) | 491 LV | 9/ | ±4.4% pic.twitter.com/IsHtlpcxDH

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024

#New General election poll - Michigan

🔵 Harris 48% (+3)
🔴 Trump 45%

Suffolk #B - 500 LV - 9/19

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

#New Senate Poll - Michigan

🔵 Slotkin 45% (+2)
🔴 Rogers 43%

Suffolk #B - 500 LV - 9/19

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

#New General election poll - Nevada

🔵 Harris 48% (+1)
🔴 Trump 47%

Noble predictive #C - 692 LV - 9/16

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

#New General election poll - New Mexico

🔵 Harris 50% (+8)
🔴 Trump 42%

Survey USA #A - 619 LV - 9/18

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

#New General election poll

🔵 Harris 50% (+5)
🔴 Trump 45%

Morning Consult #C - 11,057 LV - 9/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

Morning Insult polls always deserve to be posted with a laughing hysterically emoji.

nortex97 said:

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Morning Insult polls always deserve to be posted with a laughing hysterically emoji.

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If that's what they want to believe, let them. They're only fooling themselves.

A poll of Teamsters Union members shows that Trump is leading Kamala in ALL 50 states, and by double digits in the swing states.

Michigan — 61.7 percent to 32.5 percent

Wisconsin — 57 percent to 40.5 percent

Pennsylvania — 65.3 percent to 31.4 percent

Georgia — 56.3 percent…

— Charlie Kirk (@charliekirk11) September 24, 2024

nortex97 said:

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Morning Insult polls always deserve to be posted with a laughing hysterically emoji.

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Morning Compost

📊 NORTH CAROLINA GE: @ElonPoll

🟦 Harris: 46%
🟥 Trump: 45%
🟪 Other: 3%
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Governor
🟦 Josh Stein: 49%
🟥 M. Robinson: 35%
——
#38 (2.5/3.0) | 9/4-13 | 800 RV | ±3.7%https://t.co/SLZkSpbzl8 pic.twitter.com/0wyJOs7LH8

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 24, 2024

JUST IN: Trump pulls a +4 lead over Harris in Rasmussen's daily tracker yesterday. pic.twitter.com/LsznG4s31d

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024

Trump lost NM by 10.8% in 2020 so while not going to flip, the gap is being closed

If Rasmussen is off by 5 points, kamala is still in trouble

The Rasmussen poll is going to end up either being the most accurate/only poll out there to thump its chest come Election Day, or their team is going to be out in the unemployment line :-)

100%

normalhorn said:

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The Rasmussen poll is going to end up either being the most accurate/only poll out there to thump its chest come Election Day, or their team is going to be out in the unemployment line :-)

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Goes both ways ….

#New General election poll

🔴 Trump 48%
🔵 Harris 48%

Last poll (8/23) - 🔵 Harris +1

Quinnipiac #B - 1728 LV - 9/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 24, 2024

One of the worst/most reliably Democrat biased pollsters. Interesting they'd show it a tie nationally in LV at this point.

#NEW NATIONAL poll

🔵 Harris: 48% (+1)
🔴 Trump: 47%

CNN | Sept. 19-22 | LVs

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024

If its tied it's trump to win

GoAgs11 said:

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If its tied it's trump to win

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Seems if Harris has a +5 or below national lead, Trump may still win based on Electorate, correct? (or where would a safe Harris threshold lead be for that to be accurate?)

Gallup track record is pretty scarily accurate on the national popular vote by tracking PARTY ID/LEAN... and look at what they predict for this election:

🔵 2008: D+8 (Obama+7.2)
🔵 2012: D+4 (Obama+3.9)
🔵 2016: D+3 (Clinton+2.1)
🔵 2020: D+5 (Biden+4.5)
🔴 2024: R+3 (?)

Just… pic.twitter.com/9mQnHRBDs8

— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 24, 2024

Silvertaps said:

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GoAgs11 said:

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If its tied it's trump to win

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Seems if Harris has a +5 or below national lead, Trump may still win based on Electorate, correct? (or where would a safe Harris threshold lead be for that to be accurate?)

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Most people say she needs to win by at least three points. Most of that is coming from California. But there has been a lot of change in the electorate so I think it is hard to say.

agsalaska said:

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Silvertaps said:

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GoAgs11 said:

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If its tied it's trump to win

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Seems if Harris has a +5 or below national lead, Trump may still win based on Electorate, correct? (or where would a safe Harris threshold lead be for that to be accurate?)

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Most people say she needs to win by at least three points. Most of that is coming from California. But there has been a lot of change in the electorate so I think it is hard to say.

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Both NY and Virginia will add to Trump's popular vote but not add one single EV. That will bring the popular vote to very close, yet heels up could still win. In fact, if Texas and Florida with all the folks that moved to these states win heavily, I could see Trump winning the popular vote but losing the election.

https://t.co/t992WkFBtS

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) September 24, 2024

11 is a great margin because it makes me think they will pull any remaining funding there, and could help defeat Brown in so doing.

I get a similar feeling in Nebraska's senate race, where despite the split nature of the EC, I doubt they can pull Osborn over the line state-wide (though Fischer needs to be primaried next time, she's just not a real likable/good politician, imho):

#New Senate poll - Nebraska

🟡 Osborn 45% (+1)
🔴 Fischer (Inc) 44%

Survey USA #A (🟡) - 558 LV - 9/23

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2024

#New General election poll - Nebraska

🔴 Trump 56% (+16)
🔵 Harris 40%

01 - 🔴 Trump +21
02 - 🔵 Harris +15
03 - 🔴 Trump +42

Survey USA #A - 558 LV - 9/23

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 25, 2024

Support for Trump Rises with Texas Minorities

According to polling data released this week, support for Donald Trump among Hispanic and black voters in Texas has grown since 2020. Daniel Greer has the details.

A poll by the Texas Hispanic Policy Foundation found a continued theme of eroding support for Democrat presidential candidates. While Kamala Harris has a six-point lead over Trump with Hispanic voters (49 percent to 43 percent), that is down from a 10-point lead among Hispanics in 2020.

According to the group, Trump received just 6 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now, his support is at 17 percent.

The polling data found that Harris has a 44 percent favorable rating among Texas voters compared to 54 percent unfavorable. In contrast, Trump has 51 percent favorable to 48 percent unfavorable.

Border policies rank high with Hispanic voters. When asked in April about increasing deportations of people who are already in the country illegally, 56 percent of Hispanics supported the idea compared to 34 percent in opposition. Similarly, 60 percent of Hispanics polled support penalizing businesses that hire illegal aliens.

Trump inroads/growth in vote share among minorities/non-white voters broadly are what will win him the election, imho, even leftist outlets like Vox have had to grudgingly admit he has made the GOP 'less white.'

I see Trump has…retaken a slim lead in the RCP battleground index of polls;

the case for a narrower popular vote/EV split than 2020 is if trump is indeed making gains with minority voters but not white voters, that nets him more votes in states that are solid red or blue (CA, TX, FL, the south) and maybe flips a few swing states (GA, NV, AZ) but not enough to win

In a tight race, PA is the key for both candidates.

Swan Song said:

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According to the group, Trump received just 6 percent of the black vote in 2020. Now, his support is at 17 percent.

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I see a lot of well to do people cringe when Trump talks about 'black jobs'


Lost in that is that a decent percentage of blue collar black people are happy that he is willing to call them 'black' and willing to point at their place of work. Contrast this with 'you can be a doctor or president even if you are african american."


Working class people dont want people to be scared of them b/c their ancestors came from a different country. they legitimately want to be looked at for the completely normal people they are.