Muh Polls

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HowdyTexasAggies
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4:08p, 9/16/24
AG
Given you spend a lot of time looking at the polls, which do you think is the least biased? Do you really believe Harris +8 is legit? Seems like BS to me, what event would suggest she picked up that fast (assuming that's what it suggests)
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 4:14p, 9/16/24
AG
There are a lot of new pollsters this cycle, which isn't unusual, they come and go every cycle. But, it makes it hard to judge them when they don't have a track record. Several of the big name media outlets (ABC, Fox News, Wall Street Journal) changed their pollster after 2020, so even an ABC poll from 2024 can't be compared to 2020, for example. Atlas (which has Trump up 3) was almost spot on in 2020, but was off in mid-terms in 2022.

Another thing worth pointing out is that several pollsters actually pull from the same set of data but then just apply a different turnout model for their poll. So a flawed dataset for one would be a flawed dataset for all.
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agsalaska
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In reply to HowdyTexasAggies • 4:30p, 9/16/24
AG
HowdyTexasAggies said:
Given you spend a lot of time looking at the polls, which do you think is the least biased? Do you really believe Harris +8 is legit? Seems like BS to me, what event would suggest she picked up that fast (assuming that's what it suggests)


I don't think it has much to do with bias. I know that's a common theme on the internet but it's not really true. At least not for the vast majority of them Most of these guys are doing the best that they can to be accurate.

The question should be which one has the best metrics. I heard a pollster the other day basically admit that the days of individual polling being accurate enough to rely on are essentially over and it's the aggregation of polling that matters.

So understanding that Nate Silver is probably the most respected one out there, at least on this thread and me personally. I like Sean Trend too. Cook is old and has old ways. So if I were you I would follow those two guys. Nate Silver and Sean Trend.
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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:58p, 9/16/24
AG
If the election were today, based on the polling you've seen, who wins the electoral count?
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Barnyard96
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5:03p, 9/16/24
AG
Its all about turnout


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Drahknor03
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In reply to FireAg • 5:03p, 9/16/24
AG
Trump and Trump.
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agwrestler
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In reply to Tea Party • 5:17p, 9/16/24
AG
Tea Party said:
Ag_0112358132134 said:
Very informative OP. It seems like most people on this board don't realize that this country is about to go irreversibly democrat in both houses of Congress and in the White House. After the next 4 years of complete democrat control, the elections will be so rigged, it won't matter if 90% of the population comes to its senses and starts voting Republican. The left will manufacture the votes they need to maintain control, and anybody questioning it will get a visit from the FBI.

There is not much we can do about it at this point, but everybody needs to be aware so they can plan accordingly.
TEXIT


I'd prefer TEXSPLIT. Break Texas up into 5 states and balance the House with a perpetual Republican Senate majority.
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TyHolden
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6:10p, 9/16/24
AG
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Silvertaps
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In reply to TyHolden • 6:22p, 9/16/24
AG
PA, WI, AZ, NV and MI? That's seems very optimistic
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nortex97
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7:09p, 9/16/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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7:23p, 9/16/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:31p, 9/16/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


Not bad. Think he's leading though. Kasey in trouble?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 7:37p, 9/16/24
AG
McCormick running so close to Trump is a good sign.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:16p, 9/16/24
AG
Every time they cut it the crowd at this Falcons-Eagles game I'm reminded that these are the people that will decide who is going to be the next president. There's a good chance there are more people in that stadium tonight than the vote difference will be between Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania, which I think will decide the election. Not sure how I feel about that.
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Captn_Ag05
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9:18p, 9/16/24
AG
Also,



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aggiehawg
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9:52p, 9/16/24
AG
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to TyHolden • 10:58p, 9/16/24
313-225

This is what the polling is telling me. I'm an expert at these things. Minnesota being close, means Wisconsin is not going Dem. Michigan is trending Red lately after a bad week for Trump. PA is tendering harder red, it's almost time for Harris to pull out.

Rust belt goes, it's 2016 plus Nevada. 313-225.

Really will be interesting to see what the polling says in a week or so after what has happened the past week, it will take a while to settle in. What a roller coaster
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:06p, 9/16/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Every time they cut it the crowd at this Falcons-Eagles game I'm reminded that these are the people that will decide who is going to be the next president. There's a good chance there are more people in that stadium tonight than the vote difference will be between Trump and Harris in Pennsylvania, which I think will decide the election. Not sure how I feel about that.


Well my wife's uncle has a towing company in Philly. Puerto Rican and is hardcore Trump. Says it's a little different this go around. Little more Trump talk this time. Also says that he does not see too much enthusiasm in Dems. Usually a lot more action.

Weird state that without full 2020 advantages for cheating is Red. And they don't have those. Seems like since she passed on Shapiro, the polls have shifted VERY SLOWLY to Trump. Shapiro doesn't care, id screw her ass over
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:20p, 9/16/24
AG
This election has been wild. A lot can happen in 1 week, let alone 6.
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TyHolden
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11:28p, 9/16/24
AG
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nortex97
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5:27a, 9/17/24
AG




"More of the same" is not a winning sales pitch when something like 70 percent of the country thinks we're on the wrong track.
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Barnyard96
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5:38a, 9/17/24
AG
Updated
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Quo Vadis?
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6:45a, 9/17/24


And we're back
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JayM
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In reply to AgResearch • 7:27a, 9/17/24
So I should quit paying attention to the Rasmussen numbers for five weeks?
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to JayM • 7:32a, 9/17/24
No. Just take them with a grain of salt
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mslags97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 7:46a, 9/17/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Updated


With these numbers, I actually think Trump wins every battleground state.

I don't exactly trust any numbers, but polls, most of the time, seem to underestimate Trump's numbers. I also think she has gotten the only swing she is going to get. If that is the only movement she gets from the debates, then the next 50 days will see a shift in favor of Trump.
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agsalaska
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In reply to mslags97 • 8:10a, 9/17/24
AG
It seems to me that she got a very small bump from the debates but maybe not in the places she needs it.

Nevada is slipping. But Michigan is gaining.

Right now if this was football I'd say Trump is a -3.5 point favorite.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to mslags97 • 8:59a, 9/17/24
mslags97 said:
Barnyard96 said:
Updated


With these numbers, I actually think Trump wins every battleground state.

I don't exactly trust any numbers, but polls, most of the time, seem to underestimate Trump's numbers. I also think she has gotten the only swing she is going to get. If that is the only movement she gets from the debates, then the next 50 days will see a shift in favor of Trump.
Based on that he wins big. And the fact her numbers are flattening nationally and closing in on swing states is very very bad news.

I would be careful on the swing thing. There might be a surprise. But at this point everything they have thrown at Trump has not worked. And he is still announcing new ideas to his policy agenda. I hope he has a couple left.

Media is trying to tie Spingfield in to a racial issue, that might hurt if it takes a hold, but I do not think it will

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GoAgs92
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9:00a, 9/17/24
AG
Rasmussen is the best poll!

3 days later

Rasmussen is so biased, what dummy believes them!

1 day later

Rasmussen is the best poll!
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Captn_Ag05
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9:02a, 9/17/24
AG
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StandUpforAmerica
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In reply to JDUB08AG • 9:09a, 9/17/24
JDUB08AG said:
I still will never trust Nevada to go red until I see it certified
Interesting....

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FireAg
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:12a, 9/17/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:

Other than GA, Trump is out performing himself in both 2016 and 2020…

Goodness…if that's true, this could be an electoral landslide…
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Captn_Ag05
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9:13a, 9/17/24
AG


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Captn_Ag05
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9:14a, 9/17/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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9:30a, 9/17/24
AG
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