Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.

GoAgs11 said:

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am I supposed to believe Florida is a 2% race right now??? LMAO

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Preposterous. Trump will win Fla by double digits….

Now the Activote poll that was cited as good for Trump last week swings to Harris.

https://t.co/zLc6rTDoHa https://t.co/RnbcpeW1rU

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 10, 2024

Kamala trails either Stein or Trump in 4 swing states…among muslim voters.

Quote:

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A survey shows that Muslim voters in four of six critical swing states are rejecting Vice President Kamala Harris, who faces the "Abandon Harris" campaign over her and President Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Polling from the far-left Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), publishedMonday, shows that the Green Party's Jill Stein is leading Harris among Muslim voters in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and Muslim voters in Nevada prefer former President Donald Trump over any candidate in the field.

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Quote:

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Turning to the data in CAIR's poll, in the ever-critical swing state of Michigan, 40 percent of Muslim voters back Stein, as she more than triples Harris's support. Trump comes in second at 18 percent, followed by Harris at 12 percent. Two percent break for independent candidate Cornel West, while just over two in ten are undecided, and eight percent will not vote.

Michigan was the origin of the national uncommitted movement that saw more than half a million Democrat primary voters across the U.S., including Muslims, Arab-Americans, young voters, and far-left progressives, reject the Biden-Harris administration's handling the Israel-Hamas war with "uncommitted" votes. The core of the movement's demands are a ceasefire in the war and a stoppage of weapons to Israel.

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NPR (!) Marist has Harris up 1 RV 3 LV:



Some interesting figures at the link.

The JH Kersting forecast is actually a flip, and switching to his polls plus model favors Trump a bit more. I think he took out Activote from their tool last month.

Rockdoc said:

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Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.

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How can these be at all accurate then?

Waffledynamics said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.

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How can these be at all accurate then?

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I'd say they're not

Waffledynamics said:

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Rockdoc said:

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Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.

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How can these be at all accurate then?

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Well, I would say that would make it seem that they are not accurate.

But, Biden got over 80 million votes, so even the actual voting is probably not that accurate.

🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL by NPR/Marist

🟦 Harris: 49% [-2]
🟥 Trump: 48% [=]
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 46% [-1]
🟥 GOP: 45% [=]

[+/- change vs 8/1-4]
——
Crosstabs
• Definitely voting: Harris 51-48%
---
• Independent: Trump 49-46%
• Democrat: Harris 94-6%
• Republican: Trump 94-5%… pic.twitter.com/r0UuYJJfwy

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2024

Crosstabs. That white number is def off

Captn_Ag05 said:

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🇺🇲 NATIONAL POLL by NPR/Marist

🟦 Harris: 49% [-2]
🟥 Trump: 48% [=]
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 46% [-1]
🟥 GOP: 45% [=]

[+/- change vs 8/1-4]
——
Crosstabs
• Definitely voting: Harris 51-48%
---
• Independent: Trump 49-46%
• Democrat: Harris 94-6%
• Republican: Trump 94-5%… pic.twitter.com/r0UuYJJfwy

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2024

Crosstabs. That white number is def off

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If Trump wins independents it is O-V-E-R over. Done

#New General Election poll - Swing States

Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1
Florida - 🔴 Trump +6
Georgia - 🔴 Trump +2
N. Carolina - 🔵 Harris +1
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +1
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +3
Pennsylvania - 🟡 Tie
Wisconsin - 🔵 Harris +3@RedfieldWilton #D - LV - 9/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 10, 2024

#New Senate poll - Swing States

Arizona - 🔵 Gallego +6
Florida - 🔴 Scott +3
Nevada - 🔵 Rosen +8
Michigan - 🔵 Slotkin +5
Pennsylvania - 🔵 Casey +8
Wisconsin - 🔵 Baldwin +7

N. Carolina Governor - 🔵 Stein +9@RedfieldWilton #D - LV - 9/9

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 10, 2024

#New General Election poll

🔵 Harris 44% (+3)
🔴 Trump 41%

Last poll - 🔴 Trump +2

SurveyMonkey #D - 18,123 RV - 9/4

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 10, 2024

#New General Election poll - Virginia

🔵 Harris 51% (+8)
🔴 Trump 43%

Washington Post #B - 1005 LV - 9/8

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 10, 2024

Seems counter-intuitive but I would be curious to see polling from NY and NJ. Not suggesting a Trump win by any means but the point margin compared to 2016 and 2020 would be an interesting data point.

Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.

I'd like to see the actual number of black male respondents please.

This so ridiculous.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.

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Yes, just Virginia. And Biden won Virginia by 10.2, so even this would be a shift towards Trump.

Hungry Ojos said:

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Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.

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No one believes H is up by 8 in VA. Do they?

Never heard of these polls before.

Scott only up by 3 in Florida
I call bs

GenericAggie said:

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Hungry Ojos said:

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Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.

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No one believes H is up by 8 in VA. Do they?

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Youngkin and Hung Cao claim that VA is in play. Youngkin's EO that includes voter roll cleanup should help a lot. I don't believe Commiela +8 at all.

Ha! That's awesome

This is what that looks like in map form. All comes down to PA

yeah; these polls have AZ and GA flipping back to Trump, but NC flipping to communist, which I don't get.

The only way to avoid depending on PA, who already announced they'll be counting mail in ballots post election day again, is to not let NC flip, and flip either NH or WI. Trump people and governor Sununu say NH is in play, but I don't know. WI, on the other hand, went to Trump over Hillary by less than 1% in 2016 and Biden over Trump by less than 1% in 2020. If they have cleaned up rolls and processes for absentee/mail-in or at least if volume of mail-in requests has dropped a lot, I think Trump is being under-polled in WI: don't believe Commie-la is +2.

One thing that makes me nervous about both Arizona and even Florida, is that there are abortion measures on the ballot. As we've seen, that's one issue that will drive otherwise benign voters to the polls.

nortex97 said:

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That's an exceptionally narrow and relatively unsupported measure of 'optimism' for your camp, unsupported by Trump's net gains with every group from white males, to blacks to hispanics.

Meanwhile, another all time high;

#New Nate Silver Model - Win Chance

🔴 Trump 64.4% (Highest ever)
🔵 Harris 35.3%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024

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it would be nice if that was an actual poll and it would be great if Nate Silver is correct

but the truth and reality is he is mixing in a lot of intangibles to his overall output including economic data

the same economic data which woefully predicted what happened in the 2022 elections.

if this is the same 2020 election polling Trump wins

if this is the same 2022 election polling Trump loses

LMCane said:

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nortex97 said:

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That's an exceptionally narrow and relatively unsupported measure of 'optimism' for your camp, unsupported by Trump's net gains with every group from white males, to blacks to hispanics.

Meanwhile, another all time high;

#New Nate Silver Model - Win Chance

🔴 Trump 64.4% (Highest ever)
🔵 Harris 35.3%

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024

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it would be nice if that was an actual poll and it would be great if Nate Silver is correct

but the truth and reality is he is mixing in a lot of intangibles to his overall output including economic data

the same economic data which woefully predicted what happened in the 2022 elections.

if this is the same 2020 election polling Trump wins

if this is the same 2022 election polling Trump loses

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I make it no secret that I have a lot of admiration for Silver and have followed him pretty much since he started. For me the number is 70-30. He was 70-30 in 2016. If he gets passed 70-30 I will start feeling more confident.

notice they never post the Senate polls for Montana where GOP is leading

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @coefficientpoll for @AmericansForIVF

PENNSYLVANIA
🟥 Trump: 48%
🟦 Harris: 46%
—
PA Senate: 🔵 Casey 45-36%
PA Generic Ballot: 🟡 Tie 45-45%
——
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 47%
—
WI Senate: 🔵 Baldwin 49-43%
WI Generic Ballot: 🟡 Tie 46-46%
——
MICHIGAN
🟦…

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 10, 2024

Heck of a shift in poly last few hours

Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

DonHenley said:

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Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

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Why would they change?

It wont change much and we have 2 months for her to hide while he hammers her every day.