Muh Polls

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Rockdoc
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9:27p, 9/9/24
AG
Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.
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mslags97
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 9:38p, 9/9/24
AG
GoAgs11 said:
am I supposed to believe Florida is a 2% race right now??? LMAO


Preposterous. Trump will win Fla by double digits….
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Reality Denier
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10:31p, 9/9/24
Now the Activote poll that was cited as good for Trump last week swings to Harris.
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nortex97
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5:44a, 9/10/24
AG
Kamala trails either Stein or Trump in 4 swing states…among muslim voters.

Quote:
A survey shows that Muslim voters in four of six critical swing states are rejecting Vice President Kamala Harris, who faces the "Abandon Harris" campaign over her and President Joe Biden's handling of the Israel-Hamas war.

Polling from the far-left Council on American-Islamic Relations (CAIR), publishedMonday, shows that the Green Party's Jill Stein is leading Harris among Muslim voters in Michigan, Arizona, and Wisconsin, and Muslim voters in Nevada prefer former President Donald Trump over any candidate in the field.
Quote:
Turning to the data in CAIR's poll, in the ever-critical swing state of Michigan, 40 percent of Muslim voters back Stein, as she more than triples Harris's support. Trump comes in second at 18 percent, followed by Harris at 12 percent. Two percent break for independent candidate Cornel West, while just over two in ten are undecided, and eight percent will not vote.

Michigan was the origin of the national uncommitted movement that saw more than half a million Democrat primary voters across the U.S., including Muslims, Arab-Americans, young voters, and far-left progressives, reject the Biden-Harris administration's handling the Israel-Hamas war with "uncommitted" votes. The core of the movement's demands are a ceasefire in the war and a stoppage of weapons to Israel.
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nortex97
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5:51a, 9/10/24
AG
NPR (!) Marist has Harris up 1 RV 3 LV:



Some interesting figures at the link.
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:15a, 9/10/24
AG
The JH Kersting forecast is actually a flip, and switching to his polls plus model favors Trump a bit more. I think he took out Activote from their tool last month.

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to Rockdoc • 6:24a, 9/10/24
AG
Rockdoc said:
Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.


How can these be at all accurate then?
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:01a, 9/10/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Rockdoc said:
Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.


How can these be at all accurate then?

I'd say they're not
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Science Denier
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:39a, 9/10/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Rockdoc said:
Just saw on a Hugh Hewitt YouTube segment that polling request rejection rate was about 90% for all polls. People don't want to talk about their choices.
How can these be at all accurate then?
Well, I would say that would make it seem that they are not accurate.

But, Biden got over 80 million votes, so even the actual voting is probably not that accurate.
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Captn_Ag05
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8:46a, 9/10/24
AG


Crosstabs. That white number is def off
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:58a, 9/10/24
Captn_Ag05 said:


Crosstabs. That white number is def off


If Trump wins independents it is O-V-E-R over. Done
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Captn_Ag05
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11:11a, 9/10/24
AG






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aggiehawg
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11:19a, 9/10/24
AG
Seems counter-intuitive but I would be curious to see polling from NY and NJ. Not suggesting a Trump win by any means but the point margin compared to 2016 and 2020 would be an interesting data point.
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Hungry Ojos
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11:20a, 9/10/24
Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.
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aezmvp
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 11:23a, 9/10/24
I'd like to see the actual number of black male respondents please.
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outofstateaggie
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11:24a, 9/10/24
AG
This so ridiculous.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:36a, 9/10/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.
Yes, just Virginia. And Biden won Virginia by 10.2, so even this would be a shift towards Trump.
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GenericAggie
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 11:36a, 9/10/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.


No one believes H is up by 8 in VA. Do they?
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MagnumLoad
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11:52a, 9/10/24
Never heard of these polls before.
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AggieMD95
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11:56a, 9/10/24
AG
Scott only up by 3 in Florida
I call bs
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oh no
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In reply to GenericAggie • 11:57a, 9/10/24
AG
GenericAggie said:
Hungry Ojos said:
Harris is now up 8?

Are you kidding me?

I thought all the poll momentum had swung back to Trump?

ETA: never mind, I see that's just in VA.


No one believes H is up by 8 in VA. Do they?
Youngkin and Hung Cao claim that VA is in play. Youngkin's EO that includes voter roll cleanup should help a lot. I don't believe Commiela +8 at all.
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aggiehawg
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12:41p, 9/10/24
AG
Not officially election season until we have a cookie poll.

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Bob Lee
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In reply to aggiehawg • 12:43p, 9/10/24
AG
Ha! That's awesome
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:05p, 9/10/24


This is what that looks like in map form. All comes down to PA
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oh no
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In reply to Who?mikejones! • 1:20p, 9/10/24
AG
yeah; these polls have AZ and GA flipping back to Trump, but NC flipping to communist, which I don't get.

The only way to avoid depending on PA, who already announced they'll be counting mail in ballots post election day again, is to not let NC flip, and flip either NH or WI. Trump people and governor Sununu say NH is in play, but I don't know. WI, on the other hand, went to Trump over Hillary by less than 1% in 2016 and Biden over Trump by less than 1% in 2020. If they have cleaned up rolls and processes for absentee/mail-in or at least if volume of mail-in requests has dropped a lot, I think Trump is being under-polled in WI: don't believe Commie-la is +2.
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Who?mikejones!
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In reply to oh no • 1:40p, 9/10/24
One thing that makes me nervous about both Arizona and even Florida, is that there are abortion measures on the ballot. As we've seen, that's one issue that will drive otherwise benign voters to the polls.
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:44p, 9/10/24
nortex97 said:
That's an exceptionally narrow and relatively unsupported measure of 'optimism' for your camp, unsupported by Trump's net gains with every group from white males, to blacks to hispanics.

Meanwhile, another all time high;

it would be nice if that was an actual poll and it would be great if Nate Silver is correct

but the truth and reality is he is mixing in a lot of intangibles to his overall output including economic data

the same economic data which woefully predicted what happened in the 2022 elections.

if this is the same 2020 election polling Trump wins

if this is the same 2022 election polling Trump loses
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agsalaska
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In reply to LMCane • 1:48p, 9/10/24
AG
LMCane said:
nortex97 said:
That's an exceptionally narrow and relatively unsupported measure of 'optimism' for your camp, unsupported by Trump's net gains with every group from white males, to blacks to hispanics.

Meanwhile, another all time high;

it would be nice if that was an actual poll and it would be great if Nate Silver is correct

but the truth and reality is he is mixing in a lot of intangibles to his overall output including economic data

the same economic data which woefully predicted what happened in the 2022 elections.

if this is the same 2020 election polling Trump wins

if this is the same 2022 election polling Trump loses
I make it no secret that I have a lot of admiration for Silver and have followed him pretty much since he started. For me the number is 70-30. He was 70-30 in 2016. If he gets passed 70-30 I will start feeling more confident.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:49p, 9/10/24
notice they never post the Senate polls for Montana where GOP is leading
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Captn_Ag05
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2:44p, 9/10/24
AG
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McInnis 03
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9:11p, 9/10/24
AG
Heck of a shift in poly last few hours
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Quo Vadis?
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9:18p, 9/10/24
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DonHenley
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9:58p, 9/10/24
AG
Not looking forward to the polls after this debate
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Rockdoc
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In reply to DonHenley • 10:05p, 9/10/24
AG
DonHenley said:
Not looking forward to the polls after this debate

Why would they change?
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samurai_science
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10:06p, 9/10/24
It wont change much and we have 2 months for her to hide while he hammers her every day.
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