Muh Polls

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dreyOO
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:10a, 9/9/24
Proof that the dems have fallen completely out of line with middle America. They are the party of extremists. Just wait till the Jews and Arabs and the LGBTQ+ realize they hate each other more than they hate Trump.
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aggiehawg
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11:43a, 9/9/24
AG


How does that translate into number of votes, you ask?

Quote:
According to Pew Research, as of 2020, there were roughly 30 million eligible Black voters in the United States, a third of them, or 10 million, residing in the seven swing states. Blacks tend to have, according to recent electoral data, over a 60% participation rate in voting. So let's take a harder look at the swing states. If six million Blacks cast a vote this November, and Donald Trump earns 17% of those voters instead of 7%, that's a net increase of 600,000.

A similar study by Pew looking at Latino voters show that there are 39.2 million eligible Latino voters, which is an increase over 2020. The participation rate is a little over 50%. Again, if the NYT/Siena polling reflects the new reality of the share Donald Trump is getting with Latinos, that's a net gain of at least 2.16 million votes nationally.
Quote:
Another comparison to make is now versus Donald Trump in 2016 when he ran against another female Democratic candidate - Hillary Clinton. Hillary lost the male vote by a margin of 11%. Trump's edge was 52-41. His margin now is larger than his winning edge over Hillary in 2016. Out of nearly 58 million men that vote, a 4-point bump for Trump is worth 2.3 million votes. And in this comparison, Hillary's edge among women was 13 points, 54-41%. Harris is underperforming that. For instance, in the latest CNN/SRSS poll of Georgia, the vice president leads by 10 points over Donald Trump.
Quote:
This is a lot of data to digest, but the bottom line to all of it is that every one of these movements in electoral sub-groups represent major chunks of votes that are moving Donald Trump's way, even with the most joyful candidate ever running against him - millions of votes at a time, in some cases. And this is an electorate where 43,000 votes between Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin in 2020 gave the Electoral College edge to Joe Biden.
Via Hot Air.
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DamnGood86
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12:11p, 9/9/24
AG
I wonder if any of the Latino participants in the poll are some of our new visitors from south of the border.

I would guess the illegal immigrant vote will go virtually 100% for Kamala.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to DonHenley • 12:18p, 9/9/24
AG
DonHenley said:
Scott's senate race in FL is closer than I thought it would be. Any chance he might be in trouble?
I am not worried
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Quo Vadis?
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12:37p, 9/9/24
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Captn_Ag05
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12:52p, 9/9/24
AG
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:34p, 9/9/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political career

Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.

It is a loser position and will not win these days
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Captn_Ag05
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1:46p, 9/9/24
AG




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Phatbob
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:50p, 9/9/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political career

Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.

It is a loser position and will not win these days
How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.
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Science Denier
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In reply to Phatbob • 2:32p, 9/9/24
AG
Phatbob said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political career

Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.

It is a loser position and will not win these days
How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.
What's wrong with Trump's abortion stance? It's up to the states. He made that happen.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Phatbob • 2:48p, 9/9/24
Phatbob said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political career

Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.

It is a loser position and will not win these days
How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.
She basically ended it, the abortion stance is the nail in the coffin
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TRM
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3:32p, 9/9/24
AG
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Prosperdick
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 3:35p, 9/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:



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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to TRM • 3:49p, 9/9/24
AG
Of all the swing states, the polling from NC has been the most confusing this cycle.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:52p, 9/9/24
AG
Additional Georgia and North Carolina polling



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LMCane
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In reply to sanangelo • 6:59p, 9/9/24
sanangelo said:
I saw Tucker and Glenn Beck in Utah tonight. Tucker claimed that he saw the internal polling for Trump and he is winning in the swing states by a lot. He told the audience to watch where Kamala campaigns. If she's in a swing state, it probably means her (and Trump's) internal polling is showing it looking bad for her.

oh okay I'm sure Trump campaign would never release fake polls

according to YOUR OWN LOGIC,

how do you explain Trump campaigning in Arizona, Georgia, North Carolina

if what you say is correct that campaigning "in a swing state it means polling looks bad"
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LMCane
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:01p, 9/9/24
the most interesting part of the NY Times Siena Poll is not just Trump leading the popular vote..

but performing better among REGISTERED voters than among Likely voters

hopefully, that means Trump is doing even better- because it would seem he has a better shot at getting non-voters in the midwest out to vote for him than Kamala has of getting non-voters out to vote for her fake act
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LMCane
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In reply to RangerRick9211 • 7:05p, 9/9/24
RangerRick9211 said:
Quo Vadis? said:


Democrats in panic mode over A+ rated NYT poll showing Trump as a rounded +2



Nate is about to talk his **** again on X. I'm here for it. He's been getting flak for two weeks with his prediction.

r/538, the only other place I play in, is a freaking out this morning. They've been high on the vibes and hopium discounting Nate and the sub-quality polls. Times/Sienna smacking everyone in the face (including me) today!

They are still contending that the polling is off.

predictit.com

has always veered democrat party and the comments are hugely left wing- I bet they are freaking out as they track every single poll

but I don't want to see what is going on over there.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 7:07p, 9/9/24
AG
That's an exceptionally narrow and relatively unsupported measure of 'optimism' for your camp, unsupported by Trump's net gains with every group from white males, to blacks to hispanics.

Meanwhile, another all time high;

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Captn_Ag05
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7:10p, 9/9/24
AG
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump

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DCPD158
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:12p, 9/9/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump

If they think Florida is even that close, they are smoking some wild weed
Company I-1, Ord-Ords '85 -12thFan and Websider-
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Captn_Ag05
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7:13p, 9/9/24
AG
Their senate polls

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Captn_Ag05
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7:15p, 9/9/24
AG
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rathAG05
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:17p, 9/9/24
AG
Why does the 538 tweet above show trumps chances at 60% and this shows Harris winning?

Nevermind. Just noticed it on there.
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Barnyard96
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7:21p, 9/9/24
AG

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Philip J Fry
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7:54p, 9/9/24
AG
Just going to ignore these polls until a week after the debate.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 8:29p, 9/9/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump



Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
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will25u
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8:30p, 9/9/24
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GoAgs11
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8:31p, 9/9/24
woah those polls dont look good for GOP what am I missing
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Waffledynamics
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 8:32p, 9/9/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump



Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?
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GoAgs11
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8:36p, 9/9/24
am I supposed to believe Florida is a 2% race right now??? LMAO
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 8:42p, 9/9/24
Waffledynamics said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump



Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?
go look at their wiki hard left
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agsalaska
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In reply to LMCane • 8:51p, 9/9/24
AG
LMCane said:
the most interesting part of the NY Times Siena Poll is not just Trump leading the popular vote..

but performing better among REGISTERED voters than among Likely voters

hopefully, that means Trump is doing even better- because it would seem he has a better shot at getting non-voters in the midwest out to vote for him than Kamala has of getting non-voters out to vote for her fake act
Was the first thing I noticed as well.
The trouble with quotes on the internet is that you never know if they are genuine. -- Abraham Lincoln.

Elko is a loser and we will be buying him out for some obscene amount of money in two years. - Agsalaska

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to GoAgs11 • 9:00p, 9/9/24
AG
GoAgs11 said:
Waffledynamics said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump



Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?
go look at their wiki hard left
I'm not seeing it. I saw that they called 2016 fairly accurately.

What are you looking at?
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 9:17p, 9/9/24
Waffledynamics said:
GoAgs11 said:
Waffledynamics said:
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump



Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?
go look at their wiki hard left
I'm not seeing it. I saw that they called 2016 fairly accurately.

What are you looking at?
partnering with vox, NYT, hollywood etc, etc,

in regards to 2016 they said it would be close way to go out on limb
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