Trump's share of Black voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 7%
— Michael Tracey (@mtracey) September 8, 2024
Trump's share of Black voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 17%
Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2020 NYT/Siena poll: 31%
Trump's share of Latino voters, September 2024 NYT/Siena poll: 42%
Quote:
According to Pew Research, as of 2020, there were roughly 30 million eligible Black voters in the United States, a third of them, or 10 million, residing in the seven swing states. Blacks tend to have, according to recent electoral data, over a 60% participation rate in voting. So let's take a harder look at the swing states. If six million Blacks cast a vote this November, and Donald Trump earns 17% of those voters instead of 7%, that's a net increase of 600,000.
A similar study by Pew looking at Latino voters show that there are 39.2 million eligible Latino voters, which is an increase over 2020. The participation rate is a little over 50%. Again, if the NYT/Siena polling reflects the new reality of the share Donald Trump is getting with Latinos, that's a net gain of at least 2.16 million votes nationally.
Quote:
Another comparison to make is now versus Donald Trump in 2016 when he ran against another female Democratic candidate - Hillary Clinton. Hillary lost the male vote by a margin of 11%. Trump's edge was 52-41. His margin now is larger than his winning edge over Hillary in 2016. Out of nearly 58 million men that vote, a 4-point bump for Trump is worth 2.3 million votes. And in this comparison, Hillary's edge among women was 13 points, 54-41%. Harris is underperforming that. For instance, in the latest CNN/SRSS poll of Georgia, the vice president leads by 10 points over Donald Trump.
Via Hot Air.Quote:
This is a lot of data to digest, but the bottom line to all of it is that every one of these movements in electoral sub-groups represent major chunks of votes that are moving Donald Trump's way, even with the most joyful candidate ever running against him - millions of votes at a time, in some cases. And this is an electorate where 43,000 votes between Nevada, Arizona, and Wisconsin in 2020 gave the Electoral College edge to Joe Biden.
I am not worriedDonHenley said:
Scott's senate race in FL is closer than I thought it would be. Any chance he might be in trouble?
New FAU polls (B+), Sep 5-6, LV
— umichvoter ๐ณ๏ธโ๐ (@umichvoter) September 9, 2024
Georgia: ๐ฅ Trump 47% ๐ฆ Harris 45%
North Carolina:
President: ๐ฅ Trump 48% ๐ฆ Harris 47%
Governor: ๐ฆ Stein 50% ๐ฅ Robinson 39%
Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political careerCaptn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
#New General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024
๐ด Trump 49%
๐ต Harris 49%
Pew R. #B - 8044 RV - 9/2
How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.2023NCAggies said:Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political careerCaptn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.
It is a loser position and will not win these days
What's wrong with Trump's abortion stance? It's up to the states. He made that happen.Phatbob said:How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.2023NCAggies said:Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political careerCaptn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.
It is a loser position and will not win these days
She basically ended it, the abortion stance is the nail in the coffinPhatbob said:How can you make the abortion argument right after you state that his wife ended his political career? Sounds like an excuse to get us to be okay with Trumps abortion stance.2023NCAggies said:Wife stole money from a nonprofit and that basically ended his political careerCaptn_Ag05 said:
Robinson has been tanking in NC.
Now there is video of him saying 0 weeks for abortion, for all the hardcore IVF and abortion people on here, this is a good ex. on why Trump took the path he did and Rs need to stay away from anything less than 16 weeks.
It is a loser position and will not win these days
#New General Election poll - North Carolina
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024
๐ต Harris 49% (+3)
๐ด Trump 46%
Last poll (8/21) - ๐ก Tie
Survey USA #A+ - 900 LV - 9/7
Captn_Ag05 said:#New General Election poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024
๐ด Trump 49%
๐ต Harris 49%
Pew R. #B - 8044 RV - 9/2
๐ GEORGIA poll by Quinnipiac
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
๐ฅ Trump: 49%
๐ฆ Harris: 46%
โ
Full Field
๐ฅ Trump: 49%
๐ฆ Harris: 45%
๐ช Other: 2%
โ
#19 (2.8/3.0) | 969 LV | 9/4-8 | ยฑ3.2%https://t.co/GKEhMrbWzo pic.twitter.com/uq7xY2TmWQ
๐ NORTH CAROLINA poll by Quinnipiac
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
๐ฆ Harris: 50%
๐ฅ Trump: 47%
Full field: ๐ต Harris 49-46%
โ
NC Governor
๐ฆ Josh Stein: 51%
๐ฅ M. Robinson: 41%
โโ
#19 (2.8/3.0) | 940 LV | 9/4-8 | ยฑ3.2%https://t.co/X6XCe9hQql pic.twitter.com/Ue9HdgiWV7
sanangelo said:
I saw Tucker and Glenn Beck in Utah tonight. Tucker claimed that he saw the internal polling for Trump and he is winning in the swing states by a lot. He told the audience to watch where Kamala campaigns. If she's in a swing state, it probably means her (and Trump's) internal polling is showing it looking bad for her.
RangerRick9211 said:Quo Vadis? said:๐จ BREAKING: Donald Trump takes the the NATIONAL POPULAR VOTE LEAD IN NYT/SIENA POLL!
— Eric Daugherty (@EricLDaugh) September 8, 2024
๐ด Trump: 48% (+2 ROUNDED)
๐ต Harris: 47%
MORE from NYT...
"Trump and Harris Neck and Neck After Summer Upheaval..."
"47 percent of likely voters viewed Ms. Harris as too liberal, comparedโฆ pic.twitter.com/wbjGEd3GQG
Democrats in panic mode over A+ rated NYT poll showing Trump as a rounded +2
Nate is about to talk his **** again on X. I'm here for it. He's been getting flak for two weeks with his prediction.
r/538, the only other place I play in, is a freaking out this morning. They've been high on the vibes and hopium discounting Nate and the sub-quality polls. Times/Sienna smacking everyone in the face (including me) today!
They are still contending that the polling is off.
#New Nate Silver Model - Win Chance
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) September 9, 2024
๐ด Trump 64.4% (Highest ever)
๐ต Harris 35.3%
.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
If they think Florida is even that close, they are smoking some wild weedCaptn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
Senate polling by Morning Consult
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
Nevada - ๐ต Rosen +10
Pennsylvania - ๐ต Casey +9
Michigan - ๐ต Slotkin +9
Arizona - ๐ต Gallego +8
Wisconsin - ๐ต Baldwin +7
Maryland - ๐ต Alsobrooks +5
Ohio - ๐ต Brown +3
Florida - ๐ด Scott +5
Texas - ๐ด Cruz +5
โโ
NC Governor - ๐ต Stein +13โฆ
๐บ๐ฒ Presidential Election Forecasts (Sept. 9) -- Chance of Winning
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) September 9, 2024
โข @RacetotheWH - ๐ต Harris 55-44%
โข @DecisionDeskHQ - ๐ต Harris 54-46%
โข @FiveThirtyEight - ๐ต Harris 54-46%
โข @CNalysis - ๐ต Harris 52-47%
โข @jhkersting - ๐ด Trump 51-48%
โข @NateSilver538 - ๐ด Trump 64-35%
Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
BREAKING: Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is off the ballot in North Carolina, state supreme court rules, 4-3.
— Election Wizard (@ElectionWiz) September 10, 2024
How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?2023NCAggies said:Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
go look at their wiki hard leftWaffledynamics said:How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?2023NCAggies said:Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
Was the first thing I noticed as well.LMCane said:
the most interesting part of the NY Times Siena Poll is not just Trump leading the popular vote..
but performing better among REGISTERED voters than among Likely voters
hopefully, that means Trump is doing even better- because it would seem he has a better shot at getting non-voters in the midwest out to vote for him than Kamala has of getting non-voters out to vote for her fake act
I'm not seeing it. I saw that they called 2016 fairly accurately.GoAgs11 said:go look at their wiki hard leftWaffledynamics said:How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?2023NCAggies said:Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
partnering with vox, NYT, hollywood etc, etc,Waffledynamics said:I'm not seeing it. I saw that they called 2016 fairly accurately.GoAgs11 said:go look at their wiki hard leftWaffledynamics said:How can you tell it's just hot air and not actual results?2023NCAggies said:Captn_Ag05 said:
Morning Insults out with a new poll dump.@MorningConsult just dropped a huge amount of polling. Let's go through it.
— Taniel (@Taniel) September 9, 2024
National: Harris 49/46
VA: Harris 52/42
MN: Harris 51/44
WI: Harris 49/46
PA: Harris 49/46
MI: Harris 49/46
GA: 48/48
NV: 48/48
NC: 48/48
AZ: Trump 49/47
FL: Trump 49/47
TX: Trump 52/43
Their polls should be held out of the RCP average they're obviously hot air for Dems
What are you looking at?