Muh Polls

365,933 Views | 3360 Replies | Last: 3 min ago by nortex97
nortex97
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There have been calls to (informally) monitor those drop boxes, note the reference to posting evidence on Telegram. They won't be able to get away with the scale of fraud many did last time, imho, and no way will people take pics of themselves dropping hundreds of ballots off to get paid happen.
Quote:

Voters using Wisconsin's newly legalized drop boxes may return only their own ballots, except in special cases, according to new guidance from the Wisconsin Elections Commission. That means even a voter dropping off a spouse's ballot along with their own would be considered as having cast a ballot improperly.

The rule could be difficult for municipal clerks to enforce. But it leaves an opening for potential challenges from conservative election activists, who are already preparing to act on suspicions that Democratic voters will abuse the boxes to commit fraud. Allegations of drop box misuse could also spur legal challenges to election results, experts say.

In the run-up to this year's elections, local officials are dealing with heavy scrutiny from election observers seeking to challenge absentee ballots, and Republicans have sought to increase the number of people monitoring drop boxes. Republican U.S. Senate candidate Eric Hovde recently called for 24-hour drop box monitoring in Madison, The Washington Post reported.
hgc159
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None of these are correcting for sampling bias. Emerson typically oversamples Democrats by 5-6 pts. And if they're only including 580 participants, it could be as high as 7-8+.

Also keep in mind, these numbers are reflecting who people are SAYING they are going to vote for - not who they ARE going to vote for. For example say a participant is a college educated black female age 30-35 in precinct 1 in Williamson County, TX. How many people in that demographic category end up voting? If 90% of the people in that category vote, that participant's answer should carry more weight in the survey, than if only 10% of the people in that category vote. But it's not.

This is one of many reasons why all poll results should be taken with a huge grain of salt. Or used for entertainment purposes only.
nortex97
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I'll take good news wherever I can find it.

Drahknor03
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Trump back on top at Nate's:

Logos Stick
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Quo Vadis?
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Drahknor03 said:

Trump back on top at Nate's:




It's also odd that they have her expected EV at 272 but show her as an underdog to Trump's 266
Drahknor03
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Yeah. He admits it's a weird result. Model expected a bump from the convention and it's pretty clear she got it three weeks in advance.
Science Denier
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Drahknor03 said:

Yeah. He admits it's a weird result. Model expected a bump from the convention and it's pretty clear she got it three weeks in advance.


So, the polling was not based on actual results, but made higher because they "expected" a bump?

Did I understand that right?
Drahknor03
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When a Q-poll has the Dem up one nationally, Dem sphincters start to pucker…

agsalaska
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Science Denier said:

Drahknor03 said:

Yeah. He admits it's a weird result. Model expected a bump from the convention and it's pretty clear she got it three weeks in advance.


So, the polling was not based on actual results, but made higher because they "expected" a bump?

Did I understand that right?


Sort of

Some of the modeling these guys use are based on historical trends, not just current polling. Current polling modeling is not really effective by itself until the last ten or so days. So it makes sense, if trying to put odds on a winner, to include common trends reinforced by past results.

As we get closer those kinds of things work their way out of these models and it becomes almost entirely based on polling data, voter registration, and enthusiasm.
Captn_Ag05
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Drahknor03 said:

When a Q-poll has the Dem up one nationally, Dem sphincters start to pucker…


If Trump gets 20% of the black vote and 48% of the Hispanic vote, it is a blow out.
nortex97
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It's funny their 'full ballot' excludes RFK now, on a national poll, though he technically only got his name removed from what, 8 states now (because he didn't want to spoil Trump's win, per his own admission/words)?
tallgrant
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I'm actually in the latest Quinnipiac sample. To my utter surprise, they called me last Friday.
Barnyard96
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Did the call come up "scam likely"?
aggiehawg
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tallgrant
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Quinnipiac Univ. Didn't hide the number either.
Captn_Ag05
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Barnyard96
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Lol
Quo Vadis?
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[When commenting on other posts with graphics that consume a lot of space, please don't use the quote feature that replicates the graphics. It consumes a lot of real estate and makes it difficult for others to differentiate your comments from the visuals. See the post above yours. Thanks -- Staff]

Was the sample 24 baristas at the Sarah Lawrence campus Starbucks?
Rockdoc
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That's a rather humorous poll right there. Lot of wishful thinking going on.
rwpag71
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In what universe does Trump gain 8 pts in MI while losing 8 pts in PA?
Morning Consult
LOL
will25u
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nortex97
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This is 3 'good' Michigan polls for Trump in a row now, right?

2023NCAggies
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[When replying to a post with long graphics in it, please don't quote the entire post because it clutters the page with material posters have already seen -- Staff]

Straight garbage, just like their last ones
2023NCAggies
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will25u said:


All the national polls are now neck and neck. Few outliers with +4 Harris, but most +/-1 for each candidate

These polls are not showing the RFK/Gabbard affect yet either.

IDK what the polls will show but this is definitely trending slightly Trump now and Harris never got the lead she needed or they wanted.

TyHolden
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Expect tons of bs at debate….like Obama Mittens bs
Drahknor03
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texagbeliever
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Drahknor03 said:


Look at the sub pieces:
Women tied
Men Cruz +22

The R/D/I split is 44/45/10%. Texas is not evenly split R/D.
Captn_Ag05
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Artorias
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Captn_Ag05 said:


LOL, Florida under DeSantis is not a swing state. Neither are NM or MN.
2023NCAggies
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Latest poll in Minnesota +5 Harris

Lmao that's not good. He won't win it but it should be +10 now with Walz on ticket

Just goes to show he sucks even in his own state. This one is over

https://www.realclearpolling.com/polls/president/general/2024/minnesota/trump-vs-harris
TexAgs91
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That IS good
Fight! Fight! Fight!
Quo Vadis?
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Not fantastic polling considering the source. Trafalgar typically is the most R friendly pollster, which has a very slight +R bias. Was hoping to see some plus 3's and 4's
Artorias
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What the hell is wrong with Georgia
Quo Vadis?
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Here is a good interview with Cahaly of Trafalgar on how is polling miss occurred in 2020, and what he has done to correct it this time.

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/2022/11/trafalgar-groups-robert-cahaly-explains-his-polling-miss.html
 
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