Muh Polls

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Rockdoc
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11:01a, 8/28/24
AG
Trump looking better in the polls. Keep it up!
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:36a, 8/28/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another poll showing zero convention bounce for Harris and trump winning independents.

I Called it! The flat line after convention bounce..... But I was wrong

It is worse than my prediction, no bounce at all. Not good for the Dems. Her average will only go down until she does interviews or sit downs.

They are going to try and get a bump from this Dana Bash sit down, which it won't do anything at all, but be a joke on social media. She wants the debates her way only or she won't debate. Their internal Polls must look like garbage.

Will she win a debate? Do a live press conference?

She is gonna have to do something to win this. The Fed decrease will bump her a little, with reaction from stock market. But that will only last a couple weeks if that.

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normalhorn
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 11:47a, 8/28/24
[This is a thread on polls. We're not going to derail it with accusations of election fraud. Take that to another thread if you want to explore it -- Staff]
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nortex97
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1:44p, 8/28/24
AG
Wow, try not to laugh at this one.

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 1:56p, 8/28/24
2023NCAggies said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Another poll showing zero convention bounce for Harris and trump winning independents.

I Called it! The flat line after convention bounce..... But I was wrong

It is worse than my prediction, no bounce at all. Not good for the Dems. Her average will only go down until she does interviews or sit downs.

They are going to try and get a bump from this Dana Bash sit down, which it won't do anything at all, but be a joke on social media. She wants the debates her way only or she won't debate. Their internal Polls must look like garbage.

Will she win a debate? Do a live press conference?

She is gonna have to do something to win this. The Fed decrease will bump her a little, with reaction from stock market. But that will only last a couple weeks if that.



Id like to see how they weighted the numbers, because the unweighted is currently showing D+9 sample. If Harris is winning a D+ 9 sample by 2% she's getting crushed
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nortex97
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2:02p, 8/28/24
AG
Since the national LV bias impact comes up regularly;

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Waffledynamics
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:40p, 8/28/24
AG
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:44p, 8/28/24
AG
Ha. That guy isn't considering the absolute whopping Rs have been putting on the Ds for the last two years on registrations. A bunch of guys have been talking about the Ds registration surge. It's really easy to increase your numbers by 175% when they start at absolute garbage levels.
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nortex97
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 3:55p, 8/28/24
AG
The correlation/causation to Harris becoming the appointee doesn't follow the actual data though. Dem GOTV efforts are what is driving a surge there, but Hispanic and black females are not driving the net registration numbers in their favor, especially where it matters. And Trump's doing historically well with hispanics in particular (and black males).





The last two months ultimately won't drive this shift, it's the past 12-24 months, really, in battleground states (especially PA).

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nortex97
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4:19p, 8/28/24
AG
Mark Halperin talking about this with such gloom based on both 'public and private' data is my personal favorite tweet of the day. Same place as Biden?:

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:27p, 8/28/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
He definitely did not want that getting out.

I hope Trump is canvassing Virginia hard AF, all the polls show a 3 to 4 pt race there, kind of keep it under wraps
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 4:30p, 8/28/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
Ha. That guy isn't considering the absolute whopping Rs have been putting on the Ds for the last two years on registrations. A bunch of guys have been talking about the Ds registration surge. It's really easy to increase your numbers by 175% when they start at absolute garbage levels.


I read in his comments that people were saying as such about the Republican dominance in registration
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aggiehawg
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5:05p, 8/28/24
AG


Anecdotal? Or a trend?
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Barnyard96
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:10p, 8/28/24
AG
Hard to know what's real anymore
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rathAG05
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:27p, 8/28/24
AG
aggiehawg said:


Anecdotal? Or a trend?


I don't know, maybe. Doesn't look organic. You can tell they are all reading a script. Hope it's legit.
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Im Gipper
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6:43p, 8/28/24

I'm Gipper
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Captn_Ag05
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6:52p, 8/28/24
AG


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Barnyard96
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 7:09p, 8/28/24
AG
Watched Brett Baeir on Fox tonight
- Trump is leading by double digits on economy and border. Harris leads by double digits on abortion and health care
- Trump gets 19% of black vote in sunbelt states
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Im Gipper
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 7:20p, 8/28/24
Quote:
Trump gets 19% of black vote in sunbelt states


If this holds in GA, that's a easy Trump win.

I'm Gipper
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rathAG05
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In reply to Im Gipper • 7:23p, 8/28/24
AG
There is nothing easy about this race.
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Im Gipper
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In reply to rathAG05 • 7:43p, 8/28/24
Never said the race eas easy. My point stands.

I'm Gipper
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:03p, 8/28/24
Barnyard96 said:
Watched Brett Baeir on Fox tonight
- Trump is leading by double digits on economy and border. Harris leads by double digits on abortion and health care
- Trump gets 19% of black vote in sunbelt states


Go ahead and add about 5 to Trump on each one of those

That's about how friendly Fox polls are for Dems
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Artorias
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8:17p, 8/28/24
AG
If Georgia goes blue again they should be expelled from the SEC
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nortex97
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In reply to Artorias • 4:38a, 8/29/24
AG
I would support that. This is surprisingly close;



I don't know a single thing about either candidate.
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rwpag71
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In reply to 2023NCAggies • 7:16a, 8/29/24
AG
2023NCAggies said:
Barnyard96 said:
Watched Brett Baeir on Fox tonight
- Trump is leading by double digits on economy and border. Harris leads by double digits on abortion and health care
- Trump gets 19% of black vote in sunbelt states


Go ahead and add about 5 to Trump on each one of those

That's about how friendly Fox polls are for Dems
Not sure why Brett gets so breathless about a Fox poll. ("If she wins GA she wins the election!") Just a quick spot check on their pollster in 2020 showed Trump's support in MI was underestimated by 4 pts and in PA almost 8 pts. That's not just Fox. Underestimating Trump support has been a feature of most published pollsters.
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Drahknor03
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7:18a, 8/29/24
AG
Good polls for Trump and the mid-west Senate R candidates coming today.
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evestor1
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7:24a, 8/29/24
Am I the only one that responds to text polling with Harris and Dem support even though i would never vote for one?


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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to aggiehawg • 7:29a, 8/29/24
aggiehawg said:


Anecdotal? Or a trend?


Always treat as anecdotal. The black support for the Republican has been a mirage the last few years. Can't bank on it
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fc2112
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7:34a, 8/29/24
I love how people state "NEW POLL SHOWS XYZ IS TOAST"

On the morning of November 8, 2016, the polls showed Clinton was a slam dunk to win.
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Captn_Ag05
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7:37a, 8/29/24
AG
Morning poll dump





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will25u
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8:46a, 8/29/24
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nortex97
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10:05a, 8/29/24
AG
Not a bold prediction really, but I think WI and MI both go to Trump. Trends are there.

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cecil77
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10:09a, 8/29/24
AG
In both 2016 and 2020 Trump out performed the polls. If it's this close in the polls, it's probably it's good news for Trump.
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IDaggie06
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In reply to cecil77 • 11:11a, 8/29/24
AG
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Artorias
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In reply to nortex97 • 11:13a, 8/29/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Not a bold prediction really, but I think WI and MI both go to Trump. Trends are there.

Given the WI SCOTUS ruling allowing unmonitored drop boxes, i have zero confidence WI results will be accurate.
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