Muh Polls

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Drahknor03
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In reply to nortex97 • 5:59a, 8/27/24
AG
Dem aligned poll bait designed to bring in money. Same pollster and sponsored similar numbers in Florida.
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 7:13a, 8/27/24
AG
Casual Cynic said:
So Biden lead by 7 and just barely won, Hillary lead by 6 and lost barely. Harris now leads by 1-2 points, when factoring in poll bias she's losing fairly badly.

Just a tad bit of warning - we can't compare 4 years ago and 8 years ago without knowing if the polls are misrepresenting the polling party mix, male/female mix, urban/rural mix etc. in the same way they did before. Pollsters are saying they've made big corrections to their previous processes. And they say Trump voters are harder to find than Biden supporters. They don't want to be polled, they lie about their support of Trump and they're more rural and hard to get on the phone.
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Drahknor03
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7:14a, 8/27/24
AG
Meanwhile in AZ (with an AZ-based pollster):

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will25u
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7:23a, 8/27/24
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McInnis 03
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7:24a, 8/27/24
AG


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FbgTxAg
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7:25a, 8/27/24
AG
Polling is obsolete.

A large portion of conservative people will not participate in a "poll." Regressives, however, view it much like virtue signaling, and they literally seek out and desire to be "polled." Pollsters "go back to the well" on those they've polled previously and got a response, creating a feedback loop.

Not completely worthless, but all polling is inherently biased towards those who wear their opinions on their sleeves, and that is a substantially larger percentage of left-leaning people.

The "leave me the F alone" folks vote red. And there's a LOT of them.
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nortex97
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In reply to FbgTxAg • 7:47a, 8/27/24
AG
Trump is a polling challenge, as we've discussed many times over the years. That doesn't mean polls are really all terrible, as in 2020 for instance they were actually highly accurate to the (supposed) final numbers nationally.

Separately, Tipp editorial about Trump's prospects of reclaiming Michigan (which again I think are pretty good, especially with West and Stein on the ballot and RFK's backing):

Quote:
A recent American Greatness/TIPP Poll of 741 likely voters in Michigan reveals a tight race: In a head-to-head matchup, Harris leads Trump by just two points, 48% to 46%. When third-party candidates are factored in, Harris's lead narrows to a single point (46% to 45%), well within the poll's margin of error. Before Biden stepped down, Trump held a 2.1-point leadover him in the RealClearPolitics average, 44.0% to 41.9%.
Further, back to your point, there are in Michigan a lot of undecided voters yet, making final polling predictions still very difficult, despite our relatively set-in opinions about him here. But again, from my perspective that probably is a good thing for Trump:
Quote:
Three-fourths of Michigan voters (75%) have made up their minds, while 24% are still weighing their options. Unsurprisingly, independents (38%) have the largest share of those yet to decide. In comparison, those affiliated with the Democratic Party (87%) and the GOP (80%) have already made firm decisions.

With such a large share of persuadable voters, the state may revert to the Biden-Trump 2024 configuration as voters learn more about Kamala Harris, who is far to the left of Biden and more liberal than Bernie Sanders. Further, it will be hard for Harris to detangle herself from Biden's record on economy and immigration, the two top issues for the 2024 election.
With the partisan spheres already locked in though, it is even better for Trump how the poll breaks down independent (more likely to be undecided) voter's priorities;

So again, while I get why some throw up their hands that 'polls are worthless' I think it's simply a great oversimplification that leads to a wrong conclusion. That data is useful, and not just to an observer, but GOP strategists, I'd think.
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LMCane
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7:52a, 8/27/24
this has to be the best news for Trump in the last 37 days since Biden was knifed and Kamala installed



still have not seen a single Harris bumper sticker or flag or sign in Montgomery County Maryland (65% commie) all the way up to Gettysburg (50% Commie 50% patriots)
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oh no
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8:00a, 8/27/24
AG
To be clear, Tapper means she's doing better than Biden was a month ago - not better than Biden was four years ago. She's doing worse than Biden was four years ago, unless you attribute it all to polling mistakes that have been corrected.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 8:03a, 8/27/24
AG
That's pretty damn incredible in the People's Republic of Montgomery County I grew up in. Truly shocked.
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oh no
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In reply to WestAustinAg • 8:07a, 8/27/24
AG
WestAustinAg said:
And they say Trump voters are harder to find than Biden supporters.
amazing that this is the case. I'm in deep dark blue Oregon right now and I'm seeing Trump 2024 flags, signs, stickers everywhere and not one kamalala one yet. Granted, I'm far from Portlandia. It was the same when I was in PA and NJ a few weeks ago. I can't imagine someone bold enough to fly a Trump flag won't be honest to a pollster about who they're voting for.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to oh no • 8:22a, 8/27/24
AG
They see pollsters as part of the media machine.
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Philip J Fry
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In reply to oh no • 8:29a, 8/27/24
AG
Now do a Trump supporter inside a major city
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oh no
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In reply to Philip J Fry • 8:31a, 8/27/24
AG
Philip J Fry said:
Now do a Trump supporter inside a major city
do one? I see them in cities and still don't see kammala signs.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:43a, 8/27/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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11:13a, 8/27/24
AG
Where we were on this day the last two cycles compared to today:

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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 11:16a, 8/27/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
What Tapper is saying publicly…

COME ON WHITE MEN!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Time for yall to save the country
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Captn_Ag05
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11:59a, 8/27/24
AG
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LMCane
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:38p, 8/27/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
I just got a text message about this poll since I have sent money to Hogan this campaign

that is literally unbelievable that in a state going 55-45 Harris

for Hogan to be tied with commie Alsobrooks!
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to LMCane • 12:44p, 8/27/24
AG
LMCane said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
I just got a text message about this poll since I have sent money to Hogan this campaign

that is literally unbelievable that in a state going 55-45 Harris

for Hogan to be tied with commie Alsobrooks!


A friend that is helping with funding senate races told me last week Republicans are hoping to pull the huge upset in Maryland and trying to keep very little focus on the race. They likely aren't happy about this poll being put out.

Maryland went for Biden by 33% and this same poll that shows the tied Senate race has Harris up 30 over Trump

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Captn_Ag05
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1:23p, 8/27/24
AG
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:26p, 8/27/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
that's an absolute indictment of Robinson. what a terrible candidate
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 1:27p, 8/27/24
AG
Yeah he blows
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will25u
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3:33p, 8/27/24
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WestAustinAg
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In reply to oh no • 5:05p, 8/27/24
AG
oh no said:
WestAustinAg said:
And they say Trump voters are harder to find than Biden supporters.
amazing that this is the case. I'm in deep dark blue Oregon right now and I'm seeing Trump 2024 flags, signs, stickers everywhere and not one kamalala one yet. Granted, I'm far from Portlandia. It was the same when I was in PA and NJ a few weeks ago. I can't imagine someone bold enough to fly a Trump flag won't be honest to a pollster about who they're voting for.


Oregon, Washington and California are all just blue blue cities and red red rural.
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2023NCAggies
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6:47p, 8/27/24
If Harris doesn't get much more of a bounce from the convention, she is toast. They know it too

Her continued flipping, non interviews, no press conferences, Jack Smith being reinstated. His sentencing is coming up. Harris is raised over 500 million. And all the gaslighting free stuff they always promise, now price fixing for the poor.

That is desperation, and knowing you were losing. And I just don't see it helping any

Very desperate. Especially now that she shows she wants to build a border wall huge huge flip, dozens of videos saying otherwise, and then she flips.

The campaign is set up to fail, it is going to fail, they're cheating will not be enough, this is still a blowout because I don't see her number getting any better than they are now or much better at least. Her favorability ratings will only go down. She has two big opportunities left the fed decision coming up, which will give her a small bump for a couple weeks and the debate and if Trump is on his game, that debate won't change anything.

313-225
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Quo Vadis?
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7:12p, 8/27/24
oh no
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 7:27p, 8/27/24
AG

[Not going to derail this polls thread with a deep dive on a specific candidate in a state and why they aren't a good candidate. Reposting material that we removed isn't the way to go -- Staff]
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Edited by Staff
Captn_Ag05
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7:34p, 8/27/24
AG
Post convention poll and this is all they can get for Harris? Those cross tabs are brutal for her too.

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nortex97
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7:23a, 8/28/24
AG
Silver showing a bit of a surge for Trump/Vance:

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agsalaska
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:30a, 8/28/24
AG
Is that Nate Silver or his old 538?

I didn't think 538 could still use his name. I thought they just called it 538.

May be wrong.

Still good to see
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nortex97
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In reply to agsalaska • 8:32a, 8/28/24
AG
I think it's him. His site is this one now, but he still has that X handle (twitter). I mean, technically, the EC vote total is still 538, so I guess he didn't need to change that when he sold to Disney.
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Captn_Ag05
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10:15a, 8/28/24
AG
Another poll showing zero convention bounce for Harris and trump winning independents.

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dreyOO
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10:48a, 8/28/24
And the longer she waits to do a softball interview, the more RFK's words resonate with classical liberals.
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MagnumLoad
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10:59a, 8/28/24
I have never heard of most of the polls being cited
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