Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 2:36p, 8/25/24
AG
This is basically what the Fabrizio poll showed.

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aggiehawg
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:09p, 8/25/24
AG
nortex97 said:
This is basically what the Fabrizio poll showed.

RFK, Jr.'s job for the next several weeks is to forcefully make the case to get even more of his supporters to show up to vote for Trump. Argument being they will have a prominent seat at the table, through him and the old half a loaf is better than none.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to aggiehawg • 3:19p, 8/25/24
AG
This is new territory for a 3rd party candidate right?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 3:27p, 8/25/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
This is new territory for a 3rd party candidate right?
In modern history, I do believe it is unless one considers what happened with the Reform Party in 2000 ish as an endorsement, irnocally enough by Trump.
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Captn_Ag05
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6:19p, 8/25/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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6:22p, 8/25/24
AG
YouGov is asking the questions we are all interested in…







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SoyTanLento
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:53p, 8/25/24
nortex97 said:
Reading comprehension; that's Trump's share of Kennedy's (former) share. LOL.

You don't have to believe me, but Trump's team has been excited about this and polling the data for the past week.
Apologizes I just glanced at it quickly. Two comments:

1) Fabrizio put out a negative poll for the campaign in 2023 and was cast off from official campaign to the PAC. Another negative poll, well, you know...
2) The Kennedy share is overstated, so even if that's accurate they're not getting as big large of a gain as they think
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nortex97
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 4:08a, 8/26/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
nortex97 said:
Reading comprehension; that's Trump's share of Kennedy's (former) share. LOL.

You don't have to believe me, but Trump's team has been excited about this and polling the data for the past week.
Apologizes I just glanced at it quickly. Two comments:

1) Fabrizio put out a negative poll for the campaign in 2023 and was cast off from official campaign to the PAC. Another negative poll, well, you know...
2) The Kennedy share is overstated, so even if that's accurate they're not getting as big large of a gain as they think
Not true.

Anyway:
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Captn_Ag05
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9:25a, 8/26/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 12:38p, 8/26/24
AG


I don't know this pollster, caveat.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:40p, 8/26/24
nortex97 said:


I don't know this pollster, caveat.
If trump wins the popular vote by 1% he probably wins the EC by 130.
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aggiehawg
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12:55p, 8/26/24
AG
RFK, Jr. discusses his internal polls and why he decided to suspend his campaign.

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Captn_Ag05
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1:37p, 8/26/24
AG
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GoAgs11
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 1:40p, 8/26/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
kaplan does polling? lmao
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Rockdoc
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:41p, 8/26/24
AG
nortex97 said:


I don't know this pollster, caveat.

It doesn't matter. Someone will always find one that says the opposite. Meaningless right now.
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MagnumLoad
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2:00p, 8/26/24
If Trump loses the national popular vote by only 2 or 3%, he wins the EC imo.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to MagnumLoad • 2:03p, 8/26/24
AG
MagnumLoad said:
If Trump loses the national popular vote by only 2 or 3%, he wins the EC imo.


I think it could be up to 4% this year and a Trump EC win.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:04p, 8/26/24
AG
Not a poll, but didn't want to start a separate thread just for this. Bad news for Lake in Arizona. Republicans could have nominated the sheriff that would have likely won.

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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 2:14p, 8/26/24
AG
Not great for her, but I do doubt it matters too much. Likely, the Maricopa leadership (or whatever it is called, phoenix police department) holds a lot of political sway and is led by a democrat.

This, however, is a nice thing to read:

Quote:
Former President Donald Trump still holds a one-point lead over Kamala Harris in the all-important swing state of Pennsylvania.

This is pretty amazing.

Despite billions and billions of dollars in free propaganda from the corporate media, Harris has not been able to close the deal in the very state that is expected to decide the 2024 presidential election.

An On Point/Red Eagle Politics/SoCal Strategies Pennsylvania poll of 713 likely voters taken on August 23, the day after Vice President CacklyMcNeverBorderCzar gave her empty, policy-free speech at the Democratic National Convention, found Trump holding a stubborn lead, 48 to 47 percent.

As far as Robert F. Kennedy Jr's. endorsement, the pollster found that "46% [RFK Jr's.] now go to Trump and 45% to Harris. This suggests a statistically insignificant movement."

Among registered voters, the race is tied at 47 percent.

This poll is not an outlier. Counting this poll, Trump has held that same stubborn single-point lead in four out of the latest four Pennsylvania polls.
Trump tied around RV in PA is incredible. I remain convinced Trump voters will have higher turnout/enthusiasm as she is forced to open her mouth more over the next 74 days.
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aggiehawg
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2:45p, 8/26/24
AG
Internals must be pretty bad to start attacking the Electoral College again.

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Captn_Ag05
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2:59p, 8/26/24
AG
What Tapper is saying publicly…

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Captn_Ag05
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3:03p, 8/26/24
AG
Morning Insult showing zero Harris Convention bounce. Their last poll prior to DNC had Harris up 3.5.

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Barnyard96
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In reply to aggiehawg • 4:40p, 8/26/24
AG
So change it to the popular vote and Trump will start campaigning in Texas, New York, California, Florida
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Barnyard96
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4:41p, 8/26/24
AG
[Not going to derail this thread on polls with a tangent on illegal voters. You can explore that in this existing thread https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3483391 -- Staff]
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dustin999
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 6:19p, 8/26/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
So change it to the popular vote and Trump will start campaigning in Texas, New York, California, Florida
Whenever someone starts griping about abolishing the electoral college, remind them that the Democrats destroyed any hope of ever seeing that happen (not that it ever would anyway) when they decided to use a civil war era law to remove Trump off the Colorado ballot.

Imagine having a general election based on popular vote and having some state take hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of votes from a candidate by removing them from the ballot?
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aggiehawg
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In reply to dustin999 • 6:23p, 8/26/24
AG
dustin999 said:
Barnyard96 said:
So change it to the popular vote and Trump will start campaigning in Texas, New York, California, Florida
Whenever someone starts griping about abolishing the electoral college, remind them that the Democrats destroyed any hope of ever seeing that happen (not that it ever would anyway) when they decided to use a civil war era law to remove Trump off the Colorado ballot.

Imagine having a general election based on popular vote and having some state take hundreds of thousands (if not millions) of votes from a candidate by removing them from the ballot?
Excellent point.

Blue parachute for you!
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Ag with kids
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In reply to SoyTanLento • 7:46p, 8/26/24
AG
ImSoDumb said:
nortex97 said:
Reading comprehension; that's Trump's share of Kennedy's (former) share. LOL.

You don't have to believe me, but Trump's team has been excited about this and polling the data for the past week.
Apologizes I just glanced at it quickly. Two comments:

1) Fabrizio put out a negative poll for the campaign in 2023 and was cast off from official campaign to the PAC. Another negative poll, well, you know...
2) The Kennedy share is overstated, so even if that's accurate they're not getting as big large of a gain as they think

Where did you get this data?
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SoyTanLento
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In reply to Ag with kids • 9:13p, 8/26/24
[Either provide polling data, links, or context relevant to the thread. Provocative opinions without substance belong on other threads -- Staff]
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SoyTanLento
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9:14p, 8/26/24
The GOP snatching defeat from the jaws of victory.


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Barnyard96
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9:31p, 8/26/24
AG

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AggieP18
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9:37p, 8/26/24
Call me crazy… but I see things trending in Trump's direction.

RFK endorsement, Tulsi endorsement, polling is tight (which favors Trump based on historical trends), and murmurs of poor internal polling for dems.

Trump needs to get his band of advisories out on the campaign trail, especially in the 10-15 counties that will decide the election and continue to hammer home the facts at rallies, press conferences, debates, and podcasts (what a tremendous idea by his campaign).
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oh no
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10:52p, 8/26/24
AG
Just wait for the October surprises:

Dem October surprise: msm performs fellatio on it.

GOP October surprise: Dems write a propagandist letter for msm to perform fellatio on.
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PA24
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In reply to AggieP18 • 10:57p, 8/26/24
AG
AggieP18 said:
Call me crazy… but I see things trending in Trump's direction.

RFK endorsement, Tulsi endorsement, polling is tight (which favors Trump based on historical trends), and murmurs of poor internal polling for dems.

Trump needs to get his band of advisories out on the campaign trail, especially in the 10-15 counties that will decide the election and continue to hammer home the facts at rallies, press conferences, debates, and podcasts (what a tremendous idea by his campaign).
Most folks don't realize the different of winning and losing is a few counties in a couple of swing states.

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Casual Cynic
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11:01p, 8/26/24
So Biden lead by 7 and just barely won, Hillary lead by 6 and lost barely. Harris now leads by 1-2 points, when factoring in poll bias she's losing fairly badly.
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nortex97
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In reply to Casual Cynic • 5:24a, 8/27/24
AG
Correct.

News: Stein defeats Democrats lawfare, is allowed to stay on ballot in WI, which definitely helps Trump. Harris is likely up around 1 in Wisconsin, imho. Notably, Trump was up 3 before Xiden dropped out against his will.

Cornel West is also back on in Michigan.

And the reason the National vote doesn't matter is that Texas and Florida, while safe, are much closer than NY/CA etc:

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