Can't see it making much difference. Of course I'm usually wrong…

Rockdoc said:

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Can't see it making much difference. Of course I'm usually wrong…

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I think it will help with never Trumpers who were desperately seeking a protest vote but they know they can't vote for Kamala. I think the Democrats who were looking for that vote when Biden was in the race have now rallied behind Harris. It's a fascinating dynamic really. Fascinating race.

When I see in the Rasmussen quote above where Kamala is catching up with Trump on economics, I'm not sure what I believe anymore. Country is really screwed up.

will25u said:

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General Election - Among RFK Jr voters

If the candidates were Trump & Harris, how would you vote?

🟥 Trump 41% (+14)
🟦 Harris 27%

Fox News poll

If RFK is at 5% and Trump gets 40% of his voters...that adds 2 pts to his vote share.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 22, 2024

---

Trump would get 41% but Harris would also get 27%. The net impact is the delta of 14% on 5 percent, or roughly 70 basis points for Trump compared to Harris.

Rockdoc said:

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When I see in the Rasmussen quote above where Kamala is catching up with Trump on economics, I'm not sure what I believe anymore. Country is really screwed up.

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m
Aint buying it

nortex97 said:

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It's not the top lines that matter right now, it's the shift over the past week I am paying attention to

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Rasmussen Trand

7/24 - 🔴 Trump +7
7/31 - 🔴 Trump +5
8/14 - 🔴 Trump +4
Today - 🔴 Trump +3 https://t.co/NruvLxXohR

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

2024 North Carolina GE:

Harris 46% (+1)
Trump 45%

.@YouGovAmerica/@HighPointU, 1,053 RV, 8/19-21https://t.co/HUbwKt47wE

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 22, 2024

Here through mid next week ought to be peak conference bounce

If this is her high water mark, LFG

Register your right leaning friends and family

Couple polls from pollsters I've never heard of and a new favorability poll

#New General Election poll

🔵 Harris 49% (+6)
🔴 Trump 43%
🟡 Kennedy 7%

H2H
🔵 Harris 52% (+4)
🔴 Trump 48%

Outward #N/A - 1867 LV - 8/22

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

#New General Election poll

🔵 Harris 47% (+4)
🔴 Trump 43%

Embold #N/A - 2696 LV - 8/15

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

#New Net Favorability Poll

🔵 Walz +3
🔵 Harris -4
🔴 Trump -13
🔴 Vance -15

Civiqs - 8/21

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

Those are pretty funny!

This thread is a rollercoaster of emotions. Captn seems to bring me back down with every post of his.

By design

Too many skewed polls to really be able to make any sense of where things stand.

MemphisAg1 said:

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will25u said:

---

General Election - Among RFK Jr voters

If the candidates were Trump & Harris, how would you vote?

🟥 Trump 41% (+14)
🟦 Harris 27%

Fox News poll

If RFK is at 5% and Trump gets 40% of his voters...that adds 2 pts to his vote share.

— David D. Chapman (@davidchapman141) August 22, 2024

---

Trump would get 41% but Harris would also get 27%. The net impact is the delta of 14% on 5 percent, or roughly 70 basis points for Trump compared to Harris.

---

Baris seems to think it will be a 1-2 point boost for Trump

Trump is taking an initial 40% of RFK voters when asked who they would vote for if he wasn't on the ballot.

Harris is taking about a quarter and the others consider not voting.

When endorsed by RFK, support for Trump increases to just over 6 in 10.

— Rich Baris The People's Pundit (@Peoples_Pundit) August 22, 2024

In case you need a laugh

🇺🇲 National poll by @BullfinchGroup

🟦 Harris: 47%
🟥 Trump: 39%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 3%
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45%
🟥 GOP: 42%
—
D31/R31 | 8/19-21 | 1,000 RV | ±3.1% https://t.co/k5JHx3b76S pic.twitter.com/tqdzMLSDqi

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

Gallup: Favorable/unfavorable opinion

Kamala Harris
June: 34-57 (net: -23)
August: 47-49 (-2)
—
Donald Trump
June: 46-52 (-6)
August: 41-55 (-14)
—
J.D. Vance
August: 31-48 (-17)https://t.co/Akuc51pULo https://t.co/YVdjhkD4Wp pic.twitter.com/iJxAQGIUZU

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

Trump crushing it in Ohio

Ohio GE: (with leaners)

🔴 Trump: 56%
🔵 Harris: 44% @ActiVoteUS | 8/2-22 | 400 LV | ±4.9%https://t.co/24jzwsehqc

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

I could believe this is true, but 97 percent of black voters to Harris is BS.

What is interesting is that of the 400 responses: 133 were women and 267 were men.

Are women who are voting for Trump more shy about it? Are women who aren't voting for Kamala selecting out of polls?

The weighted totals have women at 53% & men at 47%. In 2022 the voting split was 51-49. That would help narrow the gap as well.

For a poll taken in the middle of the DNC, this is not bad

🇺🇲 National poll by @RMG_Research

🟦 Harris: 48% [+3]
🟥 Trump: 46% [=]
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 1%
---
With leans
🟦 Harris: 49% [+2]
🟥 Trump: 49% [=]

[+/- change vs 8/12-14]
—
#60 | 2,404 LV | August 19-21 | ±2%https://t.co/279YyJBIYE pic.twitter.com/baC81AfbDR

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

RFK move will be interesting

I'm following this thread with some curiosity and interest, and I'll be voting for Trump for the third time, but whether it's from too many braindead idiots (my preferred explanation), or from 95-5% unfavorable media coverage of Trump, or because of cheating, or whatever, I just can't envision him taking the oath of office again. I sure hope I'm wrong but I can already predict the day after the election around here. Non-Trump Republicans will say "I told you his negatives were too high!", Trump loyalists will say he lost because of cheating again, and we'll all vent about the fact that there are too many dumb people in the country. I won't post again on this thread until that day and we'll see how close I am. We're gonna end up with the cackling moron one way or another. This country is clearly on a suicide mission.

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump crushing it in Ohio

Ohio GE: (with leaners)

🔴 Trump: 56%
🔵 Harris: 44% @ActiVoteUS | 8/2-22 | 400 LV | ±4.9%https://t.co/24jzwsehqc

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

---

Penna is gone gone if he wins Ohio by 12

I'm with you, but it's mostly battered republican syndrome.

Polling average - History recap - Aug 22

2016 - 🔵 H. Clinton +6
2020 - 🔵 Biden +8.8
2024 - 🔵 Harris +3.2@FiveThirtyEight

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

Quo Vadis? said:

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I'm with you, but it's mostly battered republican syndrome.

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That's possible. No one will be happier than me to come back and say "Wow, I was utterly completely wrong, go ahead and point and laugh at me." And I will. I'd happily trade that in a second. But I just think I've seen this too many times in other scenarios. Like a football game where the score might be close at halftime, but you just know deep down who's gonna win no matter what the stats say. We'll see. And I just already violated my statement that I wouldn't post again until then, Crap... haha!

Joes said:

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I'm following this thread with some curiosity and interest, and I'll be voting for Trump for the third time, but whether it's from too many braindead idiots (my preferred explanation), or from 95-5% unfavorable media coverage of Trump, or because of cheating, or whatever, I just can't envision him taking the oath of office again. I sure hope I'm wrong but I can already predict the day after the election around here. Non-Trump Republicans will say "I told you his negatives were too high!", Trump loyalists will say he lost because of cheating again, and we'll all vent about the fact that there are too many dumb people in the country. I won't post again on this thread until that day and we'll see how close I am. We're gonna end up with the cackling moron one way or another. This country is clearly on a suicide mission.

---

Braindead idiots is a terrible explanation. These individuals are highly insecure and confused. The only reason I harp on this is that the discussion is to try to think how can you as individual / church / society actually work to enable people to feel more secure. With that, voting against marxism.

This falls out from the numbers:
Unmarried women vote overwhelmingly democrat. In a healthy marriage, women will get stability and security from their husbands.
Young voters: These individuals are in college or are on the bottom of the professional totem pole. They don't know yet who they are.
Black voters: They have been told whitey is out to get them and is purposefully holding them back.
Urban areas: Where does most crime happen -> urban areas. Where does one see people way more successful then them -> urban areas. Where is Christianity less prominent -> urban areas.
Low T men: Insecurity is obvious here.

will25u said:

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Polling average - History recap - Aug 22

2016 - 🔵 H. Clinton +6
2020 - 🔵 Biden +8.8
2024 - 🔵 Harris +3.2@FiveThirtyEight

— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) August 22, 2024

---

Nobody has figured out how to accurately poll Trump. He is the most enigmatic candidate we will likely ever see in our lifetime. Unless they somehow figured it out this cycle (which I doubt), history indicates that Trump will win in November.

I polled two people. I didn't ask them who they were voting for or who they thought would win.

I asked them "Who do you want to win?"

Neither would answer.

Those two guys are John Tester and Sherrod Brown. And that should tell you all you need to know about where the election stands right now.

Drahknor03 said:

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I polled two people. I didn't ask them who they were voting for or who they thought would win.

I asked them "Who do you want to win?"

Neither would answer.

Those two guys are John Tester and Sherrod Brown. And that should tell you all you need to know about where the election stands right now.

---

"he's just focused on his race"

Yeah, he's too busy to say he'd like his party's nominee to win. What a gomer.

Quo Vadis? said:

---

Captn_Ag05 said:

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Trump crushing it in Ohio

Ohio GE: (with leaners)

🔴 Trump: 56%
🔵 Harris: 44% @ActiVoteUS | 8/2-22 | 400 LV | ±4.9%https://t.co/24jzwsehqc

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 23, 2024

---

Penna is gone gone if he wins Ohio by 12

---

With that much support in Ohio it's kind of surprising that Sherrod Brown is ahead in the OH senate race by so much.

Joes said:

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I'm following this thread with some curiosity and interest, and I'll be voting for Trump for the third time, but whether it's from too many braindead idiots (my preferred explanation), or from 95-5% unfavorable media coverage of Trump, or because of cheating, or whatever, I just can't envision him taking the oath of office again. I sure hope I'm wrong but I can already predict the day after the election around here. Non-Trump Republicans will say "I told you his negatives were too high!", Trump loyalists will say he lost because of cheating again, and we'll all vent about the fact that there are too many dumb people in the country. I won't post again on this thread until that day and we'll see how close I am. We're gonna end up with the cackling moron one way or another. This country is clearly on a suicide mission.

---

I mostly agree, but slivers of hope:

- Trump is polling much better at this time vs Harris than same time vs Biden. I think all the lawfaring, indictments, convictions, ballot removal efforts are backfiring as people see thru what the marxist regime is trying to do to its political opposition. That, plus the 3.5 year record of the current regime- border, inflation, and wars hurt Harris. Can they keep it there and keep chipping way and get the turnout? Can they make it too big to cheat?

- Efforts in several states - AZ, GA, VA, etc.- to clean up rolls and tighten down election integrity. making it just slightly harder to cheat could help a little. Dems are fighting to block integrity efforts in AZ and VA.

- not all of the tech platform monopolies are part of DNC and big gov's censorship apparatus anymore since Musk's takeover of twitter/X. If corruption is exposed in another "October surprise" again this time, it won't be wiped off the face of the internet to deceive the public and low info voters again.

- we're not in the throes of a scamdemic this time- absentee voting is still a mass-mailed chaotic **** show to some extent and dems won't let it ever go back because they need a lack of controls in elections, but at least if the volume of mass-mailings is down some, it helps a little.



I think the Dems will have some cards left to play. For one, Politico hasn't released anything from the leaking/hacking of the Trump campaign emails yet. Did they get anything really juicy or damaging - just waiting for an October surprise? I also think, with the rhetoric and lies they spiel about Trump, they will incite more assassination attempts. Lastly, they have possible prison sentencing for the accounts payable invoice coding felonies and they still have the GA RICO case and other BS to try to play.


One prediction I will make though: if Trump wins, the rioting, arson, assaults, and of course deaths (because it won't be hard to beat ZERO), will dwarf those unarmed protestors who entered the Capitol on 1/6/2021 who punched some cops after they were sprayed and gas bombed.