Muh Polls

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Waffledynamics
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10:18p, 8/20/24
AG
Twitter polls are not credible, so I hope nobody gets their hopes up by that.
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 10:28p, 8/20/24
AG
Waffledynamics said:
Twitter polls are not credible, so I hope nobody gets their hopes up by that.

Well I haven't seen many polls lately that are credible.
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TyHolden
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11:27p, 8/20/24
AG
Georgia and UNC are not in play unless cheating is seriously involved.

AZ and NV are in play because cheating is involved.

The other 3 cities are up in the air. Broken pipes, etc.

If this happens again, I'm convinced everybody was involved. Every candidate. No reason to let this **** happen again.
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FTAG 2000
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12:59a, 8/21/24
AG
I've got family in NC and PA, and we just got done with August vacations and family visits.

General observations -

NC, you couldn't find a Kamala sticker or yard sign unless you went deep in into Charlotte downtown area. Everywhere outside of there is Trump country.

PA, sorta the same. Didn't go to Philly but spent time in Pittsburgh, its 'burbs, and out in the country. Literally zero Kamala anything in the Pittsburgh metro area. Lost count of roadside Trump pop up tents selling merch. Went to a Steelers preseason game and they ran multiple Kamala ads (gross!). The first ad she got booed by the stadium. By the fifth ad, the boos were the loudest thing all night. Even some solid drunken F-bombs pointed at her.

If PA goes blue, call bull*****
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will25u
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5:27a, 8/21/24
Almost 4M votes. 74-26.
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ts5641
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In reply to will25u • 5:28a, 8/21/24
will25u said:
Almost 4M votes. 74-26.
I know random meaningless poll, but with 4 million votes that's a pretty big disparity.
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Barnyard96
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8:55a, 8/21/24
AG

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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:14a, 8/21/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:

This is what I sort of expected, because those who are not card carrying communists/haven't read Mao's little red book several times out of adoration, aren't gonna be enthused by this spend/tax/war platform the communists are proffering up again.



You can really hear the sadness in her voice here (she is a devout leftist), but this move I now expect after the convention to have a big surge further for Trump in the polls/swing states:

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nortex97
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12:38p, 8/21/24
AG
Nice. Again, it's not just Tester 'fading' but the impact outside of Dem urban strongholds of their own convention, imho.

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nortex97
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1:11p, 8/21/24
AG
Again, big Mike did a great job boosting Trump:

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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 1:40p, 8/21/24
nortex97 said:
Again, big Mike did a great job boosting Trump:



RFK could really help as well. Even if Trump only picks up 1/5 of current rfk supporters it would be over a million votes.

If Trump with Ga, Az, and Nc Kamala is screwed because she has to run the table in the battlegrounds
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nortex97
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In reply to Quo Vadis? • 2:26p, 8/21/24
AG
I think if RFK does endorse Trump in AZ on Friday it puts Trump in the drivers seat (no, not locks) in AZ, MI, and probably over the top in PA. I think he already has NC, GA, and NV. Oh by the way, Harris is gonna have to spend a lot of cash to keep VA in her column, too.

Then let's see if they think throwing him into Rikers somehow will be helpful for the communists. That's their last play, after any notional debate.
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Quo Vadis?
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:27p, 8/21/24
nortex97 said:
I think if RFK does endorse Trump in AZ on Friday it puts Trump in the drivers seat (no, not locks) in AZ, MI, and probably over the top in PA. I think he already has NC, GA, and NV. Oh by the way, Harris is gonna have to spend a lot of cash to keep VA in her column, too.

Then let's see if they think throwing him into Rikers somehow will be helpful for the communists. That's their last play, after any notional debate.


Making her play defense in Virginia is a huge boost, agreed
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Science Denier
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:35p, 8/21/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Barnyard96 said:

This is what I sort of expected, because those who are not card carrying communists/haven't read Mao's little red book several times out of adoration, aren't gonna be enthused by this spend/tax/war platform the communists are proffering up again.



You can really hear the sadness in her voice here (she is a devout leftist), but this move I now expect after the convention to have a big surge further for Trump in the polls/swing states:



Make him head of the FBI.
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JayM
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In reply to McInnis 03 • 3:25p, 8/21/24
McInnis 03 said:
Artorias said:
Barnyard96 said:

Holy ****, what prompted the big 10 point spike?


You have to assume price caps.

Now give "un realized gains" a few days and see
Does this mean reaching into my investment accounts? They will do it if we let them. They will use some class envy.
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TRM
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5:53p, 8/21/24
AG
With that close of a margin, the Dem's ballot harvesting operation wins it.
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Waffledynamics
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5:57p, 8/21/24
AG
I don't imagine a world in which the Democratic protest candidate endorsing Trump would get anyone to vote for Trump. We'll see, I guess.

Also, what's with referencing Polymarket? That's a betting site.
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JayM
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In reply to Waffledynamics • 7:00p, 8/21/24
Waffledynamics said:
I don't imagine a world in which the Democratic protest candidate endorsing Trump would get anyone to vote for Trump. We'll see, I guess.

Also, what's with referencing Polymarket? That's a betting site.
Is it late October?
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Captn_Ag05
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7:01p, 8/21/24
AG
Maine awards based on congressional district









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nortex97
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6:23a, 8/22/24
AG
More Trump bounce from the low-T DNC:



It's not the top lines that matter right now, it's the shift over the past week I am paying attention to:


Rasmussen's daily now has bounced 10 points back to a tie. Probably will need the weekend to see what they really show.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:43a, 8/22/24
AG
Rasmussen also said this


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Captn_Ag05
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9:13a, 8/22/24
AG
Not buying it

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TyHolden
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:17a, 8/22/24
AG
Captn_Ag05 said:
Not buying it

Texas will be 10+ Trump easily. We have laws.
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normalhorn
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9:27a, 8/22/24
I typically don't put much stock in polls.

But, having Colin Allred within earshot of Cruz is pant-crappingly insane.

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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to TyHolden • 9:52a, 8/22/24
AG
TyHolden said:
Captn_Ag05 said:
Not buying it

Texas will be 10+ Trump easily. We have laws.
I think it will be around 8 points. He beat Hillary by 8.5 points and Biden by 5.6%.
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Barnyard96
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10:12a, 8/22/24
AG
Do they track registrations in Texas? Lots of new people here.
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LMCane
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In reply to FTAG 2000 • 10:26a, 8/22/24
FTAG 2000 said:
I've got family in NC and PA, and we just got done with August vacations and family visits.

General observations -

NC, you couldn't find a Kamala sticker or yard sign unless you went deep in into Charlotte downtown area. Everywhere outside of there is Trump country.

PA, sorta the same. Didn't go to Philly but spent time in Pittsburgh, its 'burbs, and out in the country. Literally zero Kamala anything in the Pittsburgh metro area. Lost count of roadside Trump pop up tents selling merch. Went to a Steelers preseason game and they ran multiple Kamala ads (gross!). The first ad she got booed by the stadium. By the fifth ad, the boos were the loudest thing all night. Even some solid drunken F-bombs pointed at her.

If PA goes blue, call bull*****
every saturday I drive up from Gaithersburg MD to Gettysburg PA along Route 15

never seen anything that is Harris campaign.

a few houses from back in 2016 are flying updated 24 Trump flags

the most are large wooden signs for Neil Parrott running for Congress (Republican)

he lost to David Trone in 2022 by a few thousand votes.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 10:53a, 8/22/24
AG
That's basically classic Trump-Lincoln Republican country though (well, excluding suburban Fredrick nowadays, or the not-too-far-off Chancellorsville hamlet).

I am going to be looking for evidence the Dems drop money in the DC/NoVa market after this week/month, as an indicia they will focus on making sure VA is in their column, and any potential offset regarding Hogan's run in MD. They appear to be inside the margin of error at this time. Significantly, this is less than either HRC or FJB won VA by:
Quote:
The poll, conducted by Roanoke College, showed Harris leading Trump by 3%. The Vice President holds that lead over the former President in both a head-to-head matchup at 47% to 44%, and when third party candidates are considered in a six-way race, at 45% to 42%. That 3% is within the poll's 4.5% margin of error.

"The switch from Biden to Harris made a difference in Virginia, but perhaps not as great as some may have thought," Dr. Harry Wilson, senior political analyst for the college's Institute for Policy and Opinion Research and professor emeritus of political science, said. "The news for Harris is certainly better than it was for Biden, but her three-point lead is still within the margin of error."
…
Quote:
President Joe Biden won in Virginia with a 10% margin over Trump in 2020. Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton beat Trump by a 5% margin in 2016.
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will25u
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11:00a, 8/22/24
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PanzerAggie06
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In reply to will25u • 11:02a, 8/22/24
AG
That's the poll I've been wanting to see.

There has been so much talk lately about RFK possibly endorsing Trump and I've been quite curious as to what that would actually mean. To be honest I'd assumed the numbers would not favor Trump as highly as they do. Not disappointed just surprised.
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Captn_Ag05
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11:11a, 8/22/24
AG
Need to focus on tying Harris to Bidenomics. Run that ad with her saying she loves Bidenomics on loop.

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agsalaska
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In reply to PanzerAggie06 • 11:13a, 8/22/24
AG
PanzerAggie06 said:
That's the poll I've been wanting to see.

There has been so much talk lately about RFK possibly endorsing Trump and I've been quite curious as to what that would actually mean. To be honest I'd assumed the numbers would not favor Trump as highly as they do. Not disappointed just surprised.



Question is will Trump be smart enough to seek his endorsement.

RFK could have a useful roll. He'll make him head of the FBi.
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policywonk98
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In reply to PanzerAggie06 • 11:17a, 8/22/24
AG
PanzerAggie06 said:
That's the poll I've been wanting to see.

There has been so much talk lately about RFK possibly endorsing Trump and I've been quite curious as to what that would actually mean. To be honest I'd assumed the numbers would not favor Trump as highly as they do. Not disappointed just surprised.


Does not surprise me. The type of people supporting RFKJr are the type of people that know what every political and business leader did or said about Covid and Covid Vaccines. If given only two choices between Trump/Vance and Harris/Walz most RFKJr know that Harris/Walz are tyrants on Vaccine mandates vs Trump/Vance. It's a top issue for them.
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PanzerAggie06
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:20a, 8/22/24
AG
agsalaska said:
PanzerAggie06 said:
That's the poll I've been wanting to see.

There has been so much talk lately about RFK possibly endorsing Trump and I've been quite curious as to what that would actually mean. To be honest I'd assumed the numbers would not favor Trump as highly as they do. Not disappointed just surprised.



Question is will Trump be smart enough to seek his endorsement.

RFK could have a useful roll. He'll make him head of the FBi.
He stated he is "honored" that RFK is considering endorsing him. So it would seem he grasps the importance of it.
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agsalaska
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In reply to PanzerAggie06 • 11:21a, 8/22/24
AG
Well there we go. I missed that.
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