nortex97 said:

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And..Scott is unironically a very neutral and good pollster, imho (not affiliated with the polls cited today, which he sold off like 10 years ago).

A4.5 point popular vote victory is not a landslide. A double digit margin is a landslide and we haven't had that in 40 years. Insteady, we have had 9 straight elections where no candidate topped 53% of the vote https://t.co/DLIFFQ8vtd

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 11, 2024

None of these trendlines/issues indicate a path for Harris-Walz to consolidate support outside of the communist voter block they already have:

We asked those who see illegal immigration as bad what concerns them. In response to an open-ended question, 49% cited crime and safety concerns while 26% worried about illegal immigration creating a burden on the economy and health care system. https://t.co/hrgWo94wVo

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 12, 2024

I also think he has a point that neither candidate has a likely path to cross over the 53% threshold nationally; keep in mind the Democrats will have something like a 40 percent margin in CA and NY, and the GOP (population) strongholds of Texas and Florida are much closer.

A4.5 point popular vote victory is not a landslide. A double digit margin is a landslide and we haven't had that in 40 years. Insteady, we have had 9 straight elections where no candidate topped 53% of the vote https://t.co/DLIFFQ8vtd

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 11, 2024

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Yeah a lot of people don't realize that. Understandably given the name still being Rasmussen Reports. Scott now runs RMG Research. I believe their last poll was 47-42 Harris over Trump, but I may have missed a more recent one by them.

All party voter registration changes - Month of July 2024 pic.twitter.com/l906uwWVbu

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) August 12, 2024

All Party Voter Registration Changes: November 2020 - July 2024.

Every state + county can be found in the drive.https://t.co/CmciuBjRzV pic.twitter.com/TlDwgJqTLy

— Michael Pruser (@MichaelPruser) August 12, 2024

No polls yet, and not worth its own thread, but Jill Stein is looking to pull off Hamas voters from the communist ticket, by selecting a "Palestinian American" as her VP. Pretty bold, if hilarious, given that Michigan is so close.

MSDNC LOL

Omg. MSNBC's political editor just told Andrea Mitchell that Harris hasn't improved over where Biden was, with young voters, Black voters OR independent voters

She's done pic.twitter.com/E1yJmlwp05

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) August 12, 2024

TequilaMockingbird said:

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MSDNC LOL

Omg. MSNBC's political editor just told Andrea Mitchell that Harris hasn't improved over where Biden was, with young voters, Black voters OR independent voters

She's done pic.twitter.com/E1yJmlwp05

— johnny maga (@_johnnymaga) August 12, 2024

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So, doesn't that mean the polls they are touting are just BS?

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @Independent_Cen

WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 42%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 43%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 45%
—@BullfinchGroup | 1,500 LV | 8/8-11https://t.co/qXwGZquXkQ pic.twitter.com/GY4A4jCHS8

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 12, 2024

Not familiar with this pollster

I was in Vegas this weekend for a few days and took my own poll, so obviously it's going to be a trump landslide

Korean dealer and pit boss (Nevada)- trump due to immigration citing they were legal migrants and can't stand current border issues. Also big 2A supporters, come and take it

Nevada local - libertarian - trump over Kamala but don't agree with all trump policies. Kamala is a moron

Georgia (Atlanta) - trump

Texans - trump

Arizona - trump

Everyone across multiple states stated inflation was ridiculous

Captn_Ag05 said:

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🇺🇲 2024 GE: @Independent_Cen

WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 51%
🟥 Trump: 42%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 48%
🟥 Trump: 43%
—
PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 49%
🟥 Trump: 45%
—@BullfinchGroup | 1,500 LV | 8/8-11https://t.co/qXwGZquXkQ pic.twitter.com/GY4A4jCHS8

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 12, 2024

Not familiar with this pollster

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Probably because it sucks. Those are drastically beyond anything that has come out in the last month.

Is there good value in either of these electoral college choices? (Not good for the country, but good betting-wise)

Quote:

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Brett Loyd, President & CEO of The Bullfinch Group

Dan Schnur, Professor, UC-Berkeley and USC

---

Let's just say…they're not real unbiased. Trump fired Lloyd in 2019, and the latter thinks the Texas senate race is a toss-up.

The polls aren't fake. The polls are weird. Trump is polling more popular than he EVER has. All these polls are showing this. Kamala is polling higher than Obama at points during his first run. You have a great catharsis going on among the Dems. The enthusiasm screwing up the models is going to come back to earth.

Odd these questions lean moderate right

Added Aug 12th to the list

If DJT can get back to holding 49-50 after their propaganda circus convention nationally among LV, this thing is over, no matter what Philly does the day after the election. I think he'll actually get a smallish 1-2 point bump from his X talk tonight with Elon, too.

Fact Check: True https://t.co/CK9P3Rzn8F pic.twitter.com/iULEjCeZPH

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 12, 2024

The poll moves made no sense.

Harris was polling at or below Biden before he got shoved out of the way. In what world would someone think oh well Harris now being the real nominee will be a huge boost for the democrats.

Yet simple people lap up the obvious lies. Often many of the same people who were posting how Harris can't be the nominee because of how bad her polling was. How quick some people move their opinion as the wind changes.

It's hilarious. A few months ago the dems were scheming how to get rid of Harris because she was dragging Biden down. And now…..you can't make this stuff up.

You're right; it's a Trump lock. I totally forgot that NC has a Republican Governor and Robinson is outpolling Stein to replace said Governor.

Post Rasmussen's midterm polls in the battleground states.

ImSoDumb said:

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You're right; it's a Trump lock. I totally forgot that NC has a Republican Governor and Robinson is outpolling Stein to replace said Governor.

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What are you replying to? Not sure I've posted any words in this thread.

https://texags.com/forums/16/topics/3453065/replies/68262722

July 12th:
RCP Trump +3 / Rasmussen Trump +3

August 12th:
RCP Harris +0.4 / Rasmussen Trump +5

We didn't change anything.

Weird

— Mark Mitchell, Rasmussen Reports (@Mark_R_Mitchell) August 12, 2024

ETA I meant this as a fresh post and not a reply sorry

Hungry Ojos said:

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One thing's for sure.

Rasmussen is either going to come out of this election as the gold standard for polling…

Or with a TON of egg on its face.

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As a reminder on the accuracy of Pollsters 👇 pic.twitter.com/OAa92mOyjp

— Gimme3Steps (@TheSouthGAJohn) August 12, 2024

3 caution points for Democrats...

1. Trump wins if the difference between the polls at this point & the result matches what we saw in 2016 or 2020.
2. Trump's more popular now than at this pt in 2016 or 2020.
3. Dems don't say they're more likely to vote now than in May pic.twitter.com/E0zfPCyKS9

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) August 13, 2024

Dude, ABC news? LOL, no.

NOT credible.

Our Love Note from The 538, owned by @ABC News

We declined their endearments.

Any questions? 😂

June 2023 story - https://t.co/jeO97aMw2m pic.twitter.com/C1Lq9T2jz1

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 13, 2024

This stuff ain't gonna poll well:

Open borders Kamala wants to free all criminal illegal immigrants.

Attendee: “I want to know, when you become president, would you be committing to close the immigration detention centers?”

Kamala: “Absolutely, on day one. On day one.” pic.twitter.com/XLfrhyLpns

— Trump War Room (@TrumpWarRoom) August 12, 2024

Good redstate piece on Harry Enten (CNN…fake news…) pouring some cold water on Dem hype polls.

nortex97 said:

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Dem hype polls.

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Perfect, and correct because we are the experts on hype.

On closer inspection, Kamala is *COOKED.*

The hype is not real. Dems are getting slaughtered on voter registrations. Pollsters keep oversampling Dems for no damn reason except deceiving voters.

It's all designed to try to keep Harris within the MOC (Margin of Cheat*ng). pic.twitter.com/CwolxQn71p

— Kyle Becker (@kylenabecker) August 13, 2024

No idea who this guy is.

A few polls out today

🇺🇲 2024 GE: YouGov/Economist

🟦 Harris: 46% [+1]
🟥 Trump: 44% [+1]
🟨 RFK Jr: 3%
🟪 Other: 2%
---
Trends
July 23: Trump +3
July 30: Harris +2
Aug. 6: Harris +2
Aug. 13: Harris +2
—
Generic Ballot
🟦 DEM: 45% [=]
🟥 GOP: 44% [=]

[+/- change vs 8/4-6]
——
Fav/unfav
Walz: 41-41… pic.twitter.com/AxukpoUR74

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @J_L_Partners | @DailyMail

🟥 Trump: 43%
🟦 Harris: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 2%

#145 (1.6/2.0) | 1,001 LV | 8/7-11 | ±3.1%https://t.co/b8esBa43Fe pic.twitter.com/e5eKxeiQV5

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024

New FLORIDA poll by FAU & @MainStUSApolls

🟥 Trump: 50%
🟦 Harris: 47%
---
🟥 Trump: 47%
🟦 Harris: 45%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟪 Other: 1%
—
Senate
🟥 Scott (inc): 47%
🟦 Mucarsel-Powell: 43%
🟪 Other: 3%
⬜ Undecided: 6%
—
#85 (2.0/3.0) | 1,040 LV | 8/10-11https://t.co/QpAEpLogUd

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024

Cook Political Report Swing State Survey

PENNSYLVANIA
🟦 Harris: 48% (+5)
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
MICHIGAN
🟦 Harris: 46% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 44%
🟨 RFK Jr: 6%
—
WISCONSIN
🟦 Harris: 48% (+5)
🟥 Trump: 43%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
—
NORTH CAROLINA
🟦 Harris: 46% (+2)
🟥 Trump: 44%… https://t.co/m7q9zU5irv pic.twitter.com/cNYQup98oo

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 14, 2024

Trump by 3 in Florida? Laughable. So many activist pollsters

dreyOO said:

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Trump by 3 in Florida? Laughable. So many activist pollsters

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FAU is a below average pollster. Their final poll in 2020 in Florida had Biden up by 2 and Trump won the state by 3.

Not gonna be too interested in polls until about a week after she opens her mouth and answers real questions without a teleprompter.

So he's down in every swing state?