No GA poll from Trafalgar?

See any polling on Aug 5, 6, 7 or 8 - except for ours?

It’s almost like - it’s coordinated, or something … https://t.co/wnjDfa1qY0 pic.twitter.com/jM5y4w2srl

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 9, 2024

Barnyard96 said:

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No GA poll from Trafalgar?

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there was no GA poll correct - not sure why

This one has GA in it...

#Updated Electoral Map Based on Trafalgar/Insider Advantage

🟥 Trump 297 🏆
🟦 Harris 241

North Carolina - 🔴 Trump +4
Nevada - 🔴 Trump +3
Pennsylvania - 🔴 Trump +2
Georgia* - 🔴 Trump +2
Wisconsin - 🔴 Trump +1
Arizona - 🔴 Trump +1
Michigan - 🔵 Harris +2@Polymarket… https://t.co/O1oSHjv7oy pic.twitter.com/rbXd0YYDr9

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) August 9, 2024

Right

Barnyard96 said:

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Right

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wtf?

That NYT poll has some really weird cross tabs. Harris tied with white voters, up bigly with older voters. The top lines don't seem too crazy, but the cross tabs don't line up with the other polls showing Kamala up.

NYT is the biggest democrat rag out there. They put out a hit piece this morning saying Trump calls Kamala a ***** all the time according to "anonymous sources".

Link to cross tabs. 1900 lv's across 3 states.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-likely-electorate-crosstabs.html

Apparently, per Sen. Graham (yes, I know), Gov. Kemp is going to finally put his political machine into motion. I don't think he wants to deal with the (insert your phrase here) of ignominy if Ga went for Kamala this time, and it will help his state legislators in campaigns too to unite around a core message to support the GOP nominee.

If Kemp and DJT can set aside their differences for a couple of months publicly, Ga will be safely GOP.

if you keep oversampling Democrats, you will keep getting a "Kamala lead" https://t.co/FbTeUBxRgP pic.twitter.com/sEr9Wzmb2m

— zerohedge (@zerohedge) August 10, 2024

Cross tabs are weird on that poll but the party ID isn't really off. There are around 300k more registered Dems that Republicans in Pennsylvania for example. Some of those are still old school conservative Democrats though so an over representation of urban Dems will skew results.

How do you identify and separate the independents for scrutiny?

Barnyard96 said:

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Right

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They don't even have an MoE for that survey...

Must be REALLY accurate.

Barnyard96 said:

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How do you identify and separate the independents for scrutiny?

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You have to look at education, income, suburban/urban/rural status, etc. for independents. An independent with college degree in a Philly suburb is going to be very different than an independent with a high school degree in Scranton. Their cross tabs don't really allow for that level of scrutiny.

And its the I's that decide. A swing of 3% changes the lead right?

We are supposed to believe trump's support among white non college educated fell from +35 to +14 going from 2020 Biden to Harris?

I know some want to portray the Kamala Tampon Tim surge as real/threatening, but…not so much.



Folks, there's no reason to think Trump has lost any voters, period, to Kamala-Walz. And again, RFK Jr voters seem to be breaking away from the fully communist/weirdo ticket toward Trump now. I expect that to continue, even if the Democrats audaciously have their circus convention decked out somehow in red white and blue.

Frankly, I think Trump is very likely to win/be ahead in Michigan, despite the above, which is still thrown off by that wacko Bloomberg poll that showed Harris up 11.

Sunday Afternoon Crosstabs: Trump 49%, Harris 44%, RFK Jr. 3% https://t.co/XxcjviFsaN pic.twitter.com/zluxgzGnQP

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 11, 2024

These don't look believable either. I don't think he has a higher portion of the Hispanic vote than the white vote, and if he gets 30% of the black vote, I'll eat my hat.

Quo Vadis? said:

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These don't look believable either. I don't think he has a higher portion of the Hispanic vote than the white vote, and if he gets 30% of the black vote, I'll eat my hat.

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30% of black vote is probably high, but I think he will surprise some people with the number of black men he gains this round.

Quo Vadis? said:

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These don't look believable either. I don't think he has a higher portion of the Hispanic vote than the white vote, and if he gets 30% of the black vote, I'll eat my hat.

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blocks only made up 13% of the poll 30 or 20% doesn't sway it that much

I'd give my left nut to have Trump win the popular vote and just pancake Kamala by 300+ ev's

Artorias said:

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Quo Vadis? said:

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These don't look believable either. I don't think he has a higher portion of the Hispanic vote than the white vote, and if he gets 30% of the black vote, I'll eat my hat.

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30% of black vote is probably high, but I think he will surprise some people with the number of black men he gains this round.

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I agree. Black men are not going to be lining up to vote for Harris. No way.

Now tied with Kamala in NC in a recent poll. If only this could have been avoidable.

ImSoDumb said:

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Now tied with Kamala in NC in a recent poll. If only this could have been avoidable.

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Where was this 4 years ago at this time?

8 years ago today....

ImSoDumb said:

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Now tied with Kamala in NC in a recent poll. If only this could have been avoidable.

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0% chance that Harris and Trump are tied in North Carolina

My apologies because the link is from the failing NY Times.

Sienna weighed the Wisconsin poll 33% Democrat 27% Republican. That's their likely voter number- for registered they're 32/27.

Wisconsin doesn't track party affiliation. When I googled the question the first response is Pew saying they're about even.

https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2024/08/10/us/elections/times-siena-poll-wisconsin-registered-voters.html

Trump v Harris & Others - Nightly - Updated

Added - Aug 12th.

Don't let the embargo of other polling fool anyone -

Democrats are in real trouble https://t.co/yfw7f7VqsC pic.twitter.com/d2BYwBSg55

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 12, 2024

One thing's for sure.

Rasmussen is either going to come out of this election as the gold standard for polling…

Or with a TON of egg on its face.

I don't think Rasmussen is factoring fraud and mass-mailed ballot harvesting operations into their model.

Better at handling the economy:

Trump 48% (+6)
Harris 42%

.@MULawPoll, 683 LV, 7/24-8/1https://t.co/jWI0flVbk3

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 12, 2024

Better at handling immigration/border:

Trump 52% (+13)
Harris 39%

.@MULawPoll, 683 LV, 7/24-8/1https://t.co/jWI0flVbk3

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) August 12, 2024

The economy is everything. I think Walz' DUI, stolen valor, horse…stuff are catching up with the public. And as with the July jobs report, monthly CPI due this wednesday is likely to stoke more market 'chaos.'

I don't think she will be able to successfully run from the basement through November, while having her team deny she was part of the Biden Harris administration/trying to copy Trump policy positions as with tip taxes. Any 'honeymoon' from the Biden coup is over, as the Rasmussen poll shows.

TyHolden said:

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Trump v Harris & Others - Nightly - Updated

Added - Aug 12th.

Don't let the embargo of other polling fool anyone -

Democrats are in real trouble https://t.co/yfw7f7VqsC pic.twitter.com/d2BYwBSg55

— Rasmussen Reports (@Rasmussen_Poll) August 12, 2024

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Rasmussen and Trafalgar get a lot of **** because they have an R bias; which is absolutely stupid as the "esteemed blue bold pollsters of the left" have gotten their crap absolutely pushed in the last few elections.

I think the average poll in 2020 was something like skewed leftward by 7-8%; Trump was supposed to lose NC by 4, Ohio by 1, and Florida by 3.

Rasmussen may be a point or two biased Red, but they're still much more accurate than the other polls.

And..Scott is unironically a very neutral and good pollster, imho (not affiliated with the polls cited today, which he sold off like 10 years ago).

A4.5 point popular vote victory is not a landslide. A double digit margin is a landslide and we haven't had that in 40 years. Insteady, we have had 9 straight elections where no candidate topped 53% of the vote https://t.co/DLIFFQ8vtd

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 11, 2024

None of these trendlines/issues indicate a path for Harris-Walz to consolidate support outside of the communist voter block they already have:

We asked those who see illegal immigration as bad what concerns them. In response to an open-ended question, 49% cited crime and safety concerns while 26% worried about illegal immigration creating a burden on the economy and health care system. https://t.co/hrgWo94wVo

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 12, 2024

I also think he has a point that neither candidate has a likely path to cross over the 53% threshold nationally; keep in mind the Democrats will have something like a 40 percent margin in CA and NY, and the GOP (population) strongholds of Texas and Florida are much closer.

A4.5 point popular vote victory is not a landslide. A double digit margin is a landslide and we haven't had that in 40 years. Insteady, we have had 9 straight elections where no candidate topped 53% of the vote https://t.co/DLIFFQ8vtd

— Scott Rasmussen (@ScottWRasmussen) August 11, 2024

Exactly,

I'm no fan of Mitt Romney, but he was very smart with his "47 percent" comment. The dems are assured 47% of the popular vote, as are the Republicans, virtually regardless of who they run. The battle is for the other 6% of the undecideds, and where they come from.