RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

Barnyard96 said:

---

If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?

---

polling shows that if Josh Shapiro is the VP Nominee, Trump will lose Pennsylvania.

FireAg said:

---

RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

---

A caveat: a couple of polls that make up the averages are from prior to last week when Harris was announced as the presumptive nominee. Those polls give Trump a sizable boost. I looked at WI and PA, and if you look at it realistically WI is most likely polling Dem right now and PA is maybe Trump +1

LMCane said:

---

Barnyard96 said:

---

If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?

---

polling shows that if Josh Shapiro is the VP Nominee, Trump will lose Pennsylvania.

---

Polling shows a lot of things

FireAg said:

---

RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

---

She's now taken the lead in the average of polling. First time in months that Trump has trailed. Everyone is cool with kicking a candidate aside and replacing them with someone else, it seems.

Circle back with these polls when Harris actually has to debate, and talk to us like we're all 5.

Barnyard96 said:

---

If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?

---

What??

Aggie_2463 said:

---

Circle back with these polls when Harris actually has to debate, and talk to us like we're all 5.

---

Give her credit. She knows her lib audience

[This is a thread on polls. You've been derailing it today. Any more and you'll sit on the sidelines for a while -- Staff]

FireAg said:

---

RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

---

Harris is only up in MI because of that ridiculous Bloomberg/MC poll with her +11

https://apnorc.org/projects/democrats-are-supportive-of-harris-but-many-adults-think-trump-has-the-electoral-advantage/

Harris already winning the election in these polls:

Kamala Harris has surpassed Trump in seven battleground states according to a new survey, demonstrating voters' newfound enthusiasm for the presumptive Democratic nominee. | @dezward01 https://t.co/yEIbs6V1Em

— National Review (@NRO) July 31, 2024

LMCane said:

---

Harris already winning the election in these polls:

Kamala Harris has surpassed Trump in seven battleground states according to a new survey, demonstrating voters' newfound enthusiasm for the presumptive Democratic nominee. | @dezward01 https://t.co/yEIbs6V1Em

— National Review (@NRO) July 31, 2024

---

Amazing! The media lifting up the most left of left Democrats in the party. Sheesh.

Quote:

---

Amazing! The media lifting up the most left of left Democrats in the party. Sheesh.

---

the media must lift up the most left of left marxists... to protect our democracy of course.

I think everyone would agree that PredictIt is basically a poll of how people view the election- but more accurate since it is actual money being wagered by the participants.

today for the first time in two months, the democrat is now favored 53 to 50 to win the election.

Betting lines this early are like your estimated arrival time on long trips. Changes with traffic.

Polymarket has Trump as the slight favorite still (57% chance of winning the EC). They do have Harris as a 56% favorite to win the popular vote.

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @Civiqs/@dailykos (D)

🟦 Kamala Harris: 49% (+4)
🟥 Donald Trump: 45%
🟪 Other: 5%
——
Crosstabs
• Male: Trump 56-39%
• Female: Harris 58-36%
• Ages 18-34: Harris 55-33%
• Ages 50-64: Trump 53-43%
• White: Trump 53-41%
• Black: Harris 86-11%
• Hispanic: Harris… pic.twitter.com/Z5DJLZ6oIk

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2024

🇺🇲 2024 GE: @leger360 (with leans)

🟦 Harris: 49% (+3)
🟥 Trump: 46%
🟪 Other: 5%
---
🟦 Harris: 48% (+7)
🟥 Trump: 41%
🟨 RFK Jr: 5%
🟩 Stein: 1%
🟨 West: 1%
—
#79 (2.0/3.0) | 7/26-28 | 767 LV | ±3.1%https://t.co/EH9fHNspF9 pic.twitter.com/62SnerncDO

— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) July 31, 2024

Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.

It is hard to imagine a path without Georgia, so the campaign better figure things out down there.

Polling now showing people are more likely to vote than 2020 polling. Prior to the dropout, enthusiasm was lagging. This would not be good for Trump as he has a relatively low ceiling due to so many people hating him.

I wouldn't be shocked by record turnout in 2024. In a major turnaround from pre-Biden dropping out, more voters now say they're almost certain to vote than at this point in 2020.

Why? Folks actually like their choices for president. The "double-hater" % has dropped significantly pic.twitter.com/tjLWcJs0JO

— (((Harry Enten))) (@ForecasterEnten) July 31, 2024

I hope the RNC can somehow find a strategy to save Congressional elections. Trump isn't winning, no matter how much he needs to. The uniparty/msm/globalists have said 10,000 times they won't allow it
Saving the House or Senate are the only chance at a winning strategy.

Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane

Jbob04 said:

---

Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane

---

That isn't cnn's poll. And increased enthusiasm from the left has been showing up across multiple polls.

I'm mainly shocked at how quickly so many people have fallen in behind someone they know so little about. I know a lot of people hate Trump, but this is an election of our leader. You should at least know a few things about them before deciding you are willing to vote for them.

I expected a large number of undecideds for a while while people weighed options.

It is good to see the polls being posted and shared but the commentary of the "sky is falling" without looking at the sampling of voters or considering where the national polls may have drawn voters from or urban vs rural is frustrating. Everyone knows that paid for polls are being pushed (plus a change in the race) and few good polls have been had. It is also July and one candidate is essentially getting a primary coronation bump. The only thing certain is that polls will change and that polls bought by either side don't matter at all except for propaganda.

Are you serious?

Americans are some of the dumbest people on earth.
I'm not surprised in the least. Disappointed, sure. But not surprised.

It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-

Captn_Ag05 said:

---

Jbob04 said:

---

Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane

---

That isn't cnn's poll. And increased enthusiasm from the left has been showing up across multiple polls.

I'm mainly shocked at how quickly so many people have fallen in behind someone they know so little about. I know a lot of people hate Trump, but this is an election of our leader. You should at least know a few things about them before deciding you are willing to vote for them.

I expected a large number of undecideds for a while while people weighed options.

---

I am not shocked at all. They didnt know anything about the crap Obama did before he was nominated but he became the savior in under 2 weeks.

2024 National GE:

Trump 47% (+2)
Harris 45%
.
Trump 42% (+1)
Harris 41%
Kennedy 8%
West 1%
Stein 1%
Oliver 1%

McLaughlin & Associates, 1,000 LV, 7/23-29https://t.co/TwQMBuQvAF

— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) July 31, 2024

That's a reasonable LV poll.

Drahknor03 said:

---

Because Kemp wrecked shop. He's not exactly a RINO. Trump needs to buddy up with him and bury the hatchet if he wants to win GA. Kemp fixed a lot of election shenanigans. No one is really talking about election theft in GA in 2022.

---

Yeah it's about time he gives Kemp a call.