Muh Polls

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FireAg
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9:49a, 7/31/24
AG
RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

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LMCane
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 9:51a, 7/31/24
Barnyard96 said:
If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?
polling shows that if Josh Shapiro is the VP Nominee, Trump will lose Pennsylvania.
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rgag12
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In reply to FireAg • 9:59a, 7/31/24
AG
FireAg said:
RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6



A caveat: a couple of polls that make up the averages are from prior to last week when Harris was announced as the presumptive nominee. Those polls give Trump a sizable boost. I looked at WI and PA, and if you look at it realistically WI is most likely polling Dem right now and PA is maybe Trump +1
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 10:19a, 7/31/24
AG
LMCane said:
Barnyard96 said:
If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?
polling shows that if Josh Shapiro is the VP Nominee, Trump will lose Pennsylvania.


Polling shows a lot of things
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to FireAg • 10:24a, 7/31/24
AG
FireAg said:
RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6



She's now taken the lead in the average of polling. First time in months that Trump has trailed. Everyone is cool with kicking a candidate aside and replacing them with someone else, it seems.
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Aggie_2463
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10:28a, 7/31/24
AG
Circle back with these polls when Harris actually has to debate, and talk to us like we're all 5.
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TexAgs91
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 10:40a, 7/31/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
If Trump wins PA, he loses the election?
What??
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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TexAgs91
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In reply to Aggie_2463 • 10:42a, 7/31/24
AG
Aggie_2463 said:
Circle back with these polls when Harris actually has to debate, and talk to us like we're all 5.
Give her credit. She knows her lib audience
Fight! Fight! Fight!
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Im Gipper
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In reply to agsalaska • 11:10a, 7/31/24
[This is a thread on polls. You've been derailing it today. Any more and you'll sit on the sidelines for a while -- Staff]
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to FireAg • 11:11a, 7/31/24
AG
FireAg said:
RCP average as of today:

Trump v Harris - Trump +2

Trump v The Field - Trump +1.5

AZ - Trump +4.2
NV - Trump +4.0
WI - Trump +0.2
MI - Harris +2.0
PA - Trump +2.7
NC - Trump +5.5
GA - Trump +3.6

Harris is only up in MI because of that ridiculous Bloomberg/MC poll with her +11
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techno-ag
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11:36a, 7/31/24
AG
https://apnorc.org/projects/democrats-are-supportive-of-harris-but-many-adults-think-trump-has-the-electoral-advantage/

I think that, to be very honest with you, I do believe that we should have rightly believed, but we certainly believe that certain issues are just settled.

- Kamala Harris

Vote for Trump.
He took a bullet for America.

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LMCane
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1:37p, 7/31/24
Harris already winning the election in these polls:

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GenericAggie
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In reply to LMCane • 1:42p, 7/31/24
AG
LMCane said:
Harris already winning the election in these polls:

Amazing! The media lifting up the most left of left Democrats in the party. Sheesh.
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oh no
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In reply to GenericAggie • 2:15p, 7/31/24
AG
Quote:
Amazing! The media lifting up the most left of left Democrats in the party. Sheesh.
the media must lift up the most left of left marxists... to protect our democracy of course.
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Barnyard96
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2:18p, 7/31/24
AG

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LMCane
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2:32p, 7/31/24
I think everyone would agree that PredictIt is basically a poll of how people view the election- but more accurate since it is actual money being wagered by the participants.

today for the first time in two months, the democrat is now favored 53 to 50 to win the election.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to LMCane • 2:34p, 7/31/24
AG
Betting lines this early are like your estimated arrival time on long trips. Changes with traffic.
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Captn_Ag05
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2:50p, 7/31/24
AG
Polymarket has Trump as the slight favorite still (57% chance of winning the EC). They do have Harris as a 56% favorite to win the popular vote.
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Captn_Ag05
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3:51p, 7/31/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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3:52p, 7/31/24
AG
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Captn_Ag05
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3:58p, 7/31/24
AG
Georgia has gone from a fairly safe Trump lead to tossup with Kamala. Black female vote will be huge for her there.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:06p, 7/31/24
AG
It is hard to imagine a path without Georgia, so the campaign better figure things out down there.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:11p, 7/31/24
AG
Polling now showing people are more likely to vote than 2020 polling. Prior to the dropout, enthusiasm was lagging. This would not be good for Trump as he has a relatively low ceiling due to so many people hating him.

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normalhorn
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4:12p, 7/31/24
I hope the RNC can somehow find a strategy to save Congressional elections. Trump isn't winning, no matter how much he needs to. The uniparty/msm/globalists have said 10,000 times they won't allow it
Saving the House or Senate are the only chance at a winning strategy.
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Jbob04
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:15p, 7/31/24
AG
Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Jbob04 • 4:18p, 7/31/24
AG
Jbob04 said:
Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane


That isn't cnn's poll. And increased enthusiasm from the left has been showing up across multiple polls.

I'm mainly shocked at how quickly so many people have fallen in behind someone they know so little about. I know a lot of people hate Trump, but this is an election of our leader. You should at least know a few things about them before deciding you are willing to vote for them.

I expected a large number of undecideds for a while while people weighed options.
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Twice an Aggie
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4:20p, 7/31/24
AG
It is good to see the polls being posted and shared but the commentary of the "sky is falling" without looking at the sampling of voters or considering where the national polls may have drawn voters from or urban vs rural is frustrating. Everyone knows that paid for polls are being pushed (plus a change in the race) and few good polls have been had. It is also July and one candidate is essentially getting a primary coronation bump. The only thing certain is that polls will change and that polls bought by either side don't matter at all except for propaganda.
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normalhorn
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:24p, 7/31/24
Are you serious?

Americans are some of the dumbest people on earth.
I'm not surprised in the least. Disappointed, sure. But not surprised.
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Captn_Ag05
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4:28p, 7/31/24
AG
It is a couple of hours long, but if you want to spend some time listening to what Richard Baris (the People's pundit) is showing, this is a good watch. He just wrapped up national polling and really drills down into results by race, religion, income, sex, age, and how third parties impact the vote. He's confirming movement to Harris but Trump is still performing well with Hispanic and black men. Hispanic women may be a wildcard in this election, especially in Arizona, Nevada, and Georgia.

https://www.youtube.com/live/00-TdKIGQS8?si=HxxO1KfNEiMVjWl-
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samurai_science
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 4:33p, 7/31/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Jbob04 said:
Yeah cnn is a great source here. You are getting as bad as lmcane


That isn't cnn's poll. And increased enthusiasm from the left has been showing up across multiple polls.

I'm mainly shocked at how quickly so many people have fallen in behind someone they know so little about. I know a lot of people hate Trump, but this is an election of our leader. You should at least know a few things about them before deciding you are willing to vote for them.

I expected a large number of undecideds for a while while people weighed options.
I am not shocked at all. They didnt know anything about the crap Obama did before he was nominated but he became the savior in under 2 weeks.
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JDUB08AG
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4:33p, 7/31/24
AG
I think Harris is close to her high water mark too. I really don't see her being able to sway a large portion of the population once the dust settles. She has a lot of negatives to defend once this gets going and she's not likable.
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Barnyard96
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4:51p, 7/31/24
AG

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Captn_Ag05
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5:48p, 7/31/24
AG
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nortex97
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 6:03p, 7/31/24
AG
That's a reasonable LV poll.
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2023NCAggies
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 6:09p, 7/31/24
Drahknor03 said:
Because Kemp wrecked shop. He's not exactly a RINO. Trump needs to buddy up with him and bury the hatchet if he wants to win GA. Kemp fixed a lot of election shenanigans. No one is really talking about election theft in GA in 2022.


Yeah it's about time he gives Kemp a call.
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