Muh Polls

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nortex97
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In reply to YokelRidesAgain • 3:17p, 7/5/24
AG
YokelRidesAgain said:
nortex97 said:

Ultimately, the Democrats should, imho, focus on saving the senate first, with a change at the top of the ticket. I think Silver agrees with this.
Silver has already said openly that the Dems should dump Biden on his Substack, and that he will vote third party if they don't. Not sure if that means RFK Jr., or what. Stein and West are both way left of where he has claimed to be, politically.
His individual vote/opinion on what he wants to happen I don't care about (it's been obvious for many years he is a partisan Democrat/leftist at heart). I value somewhat his analysis of the polling data separate from his personal commentary, I guess I am trying to say.

The democrats have to do something to try to flip the table inarguably, imho:

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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:19p, 7/5/24
AG
Wow. Legit?
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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 3:22p, 7/5/24
AG
It's a gambling market, basically, not a poll aggregate etc. But, it's what the market really is right now, imho.
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LMCane
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4:37p, 7/5/24
HUUUUUGE
LFG... this would be a GOP senate majority after so many disasters.

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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:39p, 7/5/24
nortex97 said:
It's a gambling market, basically, not a poll aggregate etc. But, it's what the market really is right now, imho.
would GLADLY take a GOP Senate with Trump in White House and a slight dem House majority.

compared to how things looked 5 months ago.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 4:57a, 7/6/24
AG
Yeah Remington released a slew of polls yesterday and I think Trump's dominance there will help take down Tester finally: all good news, really.

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AggieUSMC
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7:15a, 7/6/24
AG
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.
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Goodnight Irene
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 7:35a, 7/6/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.


You could've chosen a game the Ags won like A&M vs Northern Iowa
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to Goodnight Irene • 8:04a, 7/6/24
AG
Goodnight Irene said:
AggieUSMC said:
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.


You could've chosen a game the Ags won like A&M vs Northern Iowa
No, an Aggie loss is a better analogy. The good guys are ahead right now but that can easily change considering how much time is left on the clock.
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Rapier108
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7:30p, 7/6/24

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Rapier108 • 7:48p, 7/6/24
AG
Yeah right. Lol
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rockdoc • 7:53p, 7/6/24
AG
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.


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Rockdoc
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7:57p, 7/6/24
AG
If that's what you want to believe that's fine. My opinion is that Biden is crashing. But he will get many millions of votes.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:00p, 7/6/24
AG
I dont think Trump +7 in Penn illustrates Biden closing a gap
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:03p, 7/6/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
I dont think Trump +7 in Penn illustrates Biden closing a gap

Yeah when it comes to polls I'm not sure what I believe.
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nortex97
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In reply to Rapier108 • 8:21p, 7/6/24
AG
Do you think that's true? Why would you believe this, if so?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:50p, 7/6/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.




In no universe would Biden be up 5 in Michigan and down 7 in Pennsylvania. And Trump only up 3 in NC?

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Rapier108
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:42p, 7/6/24
nortex97 said:
Do you think that's true? Why would you believe this, if so?
As I've said many times, I don't put much faith in polls in general because I know how they can be so easily manipulated. It is why when I post a poll, I don't usually include a comment. I'll leave it to the people who love polls to get into the poll's weeds.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Kentucky Jeff
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:53p, 7/6/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Barnyard96 said:
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.




In no universe would Biden be up 5 in Michigan and down 7 in Pennsylvania. And Trump only up 3 in NC?



Agree. Those numbers are skewed. Assuming a two way race, I'm thinking Michigan is more like 50/50, Pennsylvania at 52/48 Trump, North Carolina 54/46 Trump. North Carolina shouldn't even be in play.
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Capstone
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10:03p, 7/6/24
AG
Can someone give me the Reader's Digest version on the complete flip of AZ and NV from 2020 (7 pts to R)?
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bobbranco
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:11p, 7/7/24
AG
nm
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nortex97
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In reply to Capstone • 7:16p, 7/7/24
AG
Capstone said:
Can someone give me the Reader's Digest version on the complete flip of AZ and NV from 2020 (7 pts to R)?
The answer you are looking for are Hispanic voters, collectively, most especially in border states/areas (not the best article but many more are available with a cursory non-google search the past 90 days). This is also why Texas hasn't shifted 'blue' as expected/predicted.
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will25u
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12:27p, 7/8/24
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LMCane
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In reply to Kentucky Jeff • 2:06p, 7/8/24
the good thing is that Jill Stein and Robert Kennedy are not going to be dropping out

they will take 4-5% of the vote
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bobbranco
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In reply to LMCane • 2:17p, 7/8/24
AG
LMCane said:
the good thing is that Jill Stein and Robert Kennedy are not going to be dropping out

they will take 4-5% of the vote
And?
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BoDog
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:20p, 7/8/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Capstone said:
Can someone give me the Reader's Digest version on the complete flip of AZ and NV from 2020 (7 pts to R)?
The answer you are looking for are Hispanic voters, collectively, most especially in border states/areas (not the best article but many more are available with a cursory non-google search the past 90 days). This is also why Texas hasn't shifted 'blue' as expected/predicted.
This as well as the fact you have to show voter ID, etc. Secure elections. What a concept!
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agsalaska
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In reply to will25u • 3:20p, 7/8/24
AG
will25u said:
The polls slightly undercounted Republican support in general in 2016 and 2020 when Trump was on the ballot. They slightly overcounted Republican support in 2018 and in 2022 when he was not.

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nortex97
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In reply to BoDog • 3:37p, 7/8/24
AG
I think you are right and why VA and NM still solid blue in some projections/estimates:

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Drahknor03
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6:54p, 7/8/24
AG
Hold on to your Pee-Paws…


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nortex97
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5:54a, 7/9/24
AG


FJB has zero chance, fundamentally, unless this (above) shifts dramatically in his favor. Emerson polls yesterday of battleground states;

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LMCane
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In reply to bobbranco • 8:13a, 7/9/24
bobbranco said:
LMCane said:
the good thing is that Jill Stein and Robert Kennedy are not going to be dropping out

they will take 4-5% of the vote
And?
And that helps Trump
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 8:15a, 7/9/24
what I don't understand is in this thread the smart guys are going back and looking at polls from 2020 and guess what:

219 of 222 polls had Biden beating Trump

yet for some reason, in a very close election, the ONLY possible explanation was "cheating"

so the same people who for four years have claimed 219 out of 222 polls were all wrong,

are now saying it's in the bag for Trump because the polls show him ahead.
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LMCane
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 8:18a, 7/9/24
so basically most of the polls should be R+3 now added to whatever it was showing before.

from D+2 to R+1
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Drahknor03
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In reply to LMCane • 8:39a, 7/9/24
AG
Yes. Obviously each poll has its own secret sauce. But because of the size of the Pew poll and its historical accuracy predicting the electorate, I expect there is going to be some baseline assumptions shifting over the next few weeks.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 11:03a, 7/9/24
AG
Exactly.

This is one that I think matters. Drop boxes/fraud is a problem in Wisconsin but I think the RNC/trends are significant here.



It will be tough for Milwaukee/Madison to deliver Wisconsin this year for the Dems, especially after a rancorous DNC, and concerns about inflation/debt/economy driving older voters.
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