Muh Polls

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techno-ag
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:13p, 7/5/24
AG
Old McDonald said:
YokelRidesAgain said:
Listen to Nate Silver. The time to get excited, or nervous, about the cross-tabs in any individual poll, is never.

Concentrate on the big picture: Biden is not a viable candidate. If he stays in this election to the end, Trump will win, barring some near unbelievable act of poor judgment on his part .
and if we're being honest, even that may not be enough to push biden over the hump. trump is just about electorally immune to consequences for his poor judgment these days. the entirety of the political spectrum is inured to it after 9 years.
Thank God for that. Most of it was manufactured by the far left media.
Buy a man eat fish, he day, teach fish man, to a lifetime.

- Joe Biden

I think that, to be very honest with you, I do believe that we should have rightly believed, but we certainly believe that certain issues are just settled.

- Kamala Harris
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YokelRidesAgain
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In reply to Old McDonald • 2:15p, 7/5/24
AG
Old McDonald said:

trump is just about electorally immune to consequences for his poor judgment these days. the entirety of the political spectrum is inured to it after 9 years.
I meant, like, credible new allegations of a violent felony type poor judgment.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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FireAg
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In reply to LMCane • 2:18p, 7/5/24
AG
Highly doubtful…she doesn't poll well with anyone historically…she's only getting a bump now because her boss is brain dead…
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YokelRidesAgain
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In reply to nortex97 • 2:22p, 7/5/24
AG
nortex97 said:

Ultimately, the Democrats should, imho, focus on saving the senate first, with a change at the top of the ticket. I think Silver agrees with this.
Silver has already said openly that the Dems should dump Biden on his Substack, and that he will vote third party if they don't. Not sure if that means RFK Jr., or what. Stein and West are both way left of where he has claimed to be, politically.
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Hungry Ojos
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2:25p, 7/5/24
No sense in even considering polling as a viable data set any longer. They're never right.

And watch, as terrible as everyone seems to agree Kamala is, once the switch is made, polling is going to show a big bounce for her, everyone in the left is gonna get all excited again while everyone on the right will think the sky is falling. It doesn't mean anything.

Polling just simply does not matter anymore. And most importantly, it can't account for ballet harvesting and fraud which will 100% play a factor in the outcome of the next presidential election.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to LMCane • 2:46p, 7/5/24
LMCane said:
93MarineHorn said:
texagbeliever said:
The value in polls are in the details. This is from Cyngal's July1-2nd poll. Link to Poll

  • Female voters <55 moved 9pp toward Republicans; females 55+ moved 6pp to the GOP (probably could bump the Trump isn't pro-life enough thread, since this is probably in part due to that neutral stance)
  • The congressional generic ballot moved from R+0 to R+4, the largest single month-over-month movement in the history of our national polling.
  • Married Men +23 points Trump over Biden
  • Unmarried women +17 points Biden over Trump but Married Women +9 points Trump over Biden

A certain set of people told us for months how Trump had no shot at getting the female vote. Well now we can see that those individuals should not be quitting their day jobs.

Honestly it is hard not to get excited. The democrats are in such a terrible position with no clear path to recovery or righting the ship that the outcome of Trump + Senate (with 1-2 cushion seat majority) + House looks like the most likely outcome.
I was one of those people. Honestly, no one could have predicted how badly Biden would've performed at the debate. We all knew he had dementia, but I didn't think he had declined so much since '20. Now that the media has turned on him a bunch of female voters are turning away from Biden.

and they will turn right back if the nominee is HARRIS!
LOL, women who don't look at Harris with disgust were already voting for the democrats.
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texagbeliever
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 2:50p, 7/5/24

nvm
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YokelRidesAgain
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In reply to Hungry Ojos • 3:12p, 7/5/24
AG
Hungry Ojos said:
No sense in even considering polling as a viable data set any longer. They're never right.

And watch, as terrible as everyone seems to agree Kamala is, once the switch is made, polling is going to show a big bounce for her, everyone in the left is gonna get all excited again while everyone on the right will think the sky is falling. It doesn't mean anything.

Polling just simply does not matter anymore. And most importantly, it can't account for ballet harvesting and fraud which will 100% play a factor in the outcome of the next presidential election.
OK.

Let's gamble on several elections.

I will bet on whomever the polls say will win, you get the other side. I'll even give you 2:1 odds, to be sporting.

Let's go.
No material on this site is intended to be a substitute for professional medical advice, diagnosis or treatment. See full Medical Disclaimer.
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nortex97
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In reply to YokelRidesAgain • 3:17p, 7/5/24
AG
YokelRidesAgain said:
nortex97 said:

Ultimately, the Democrats should, imho, focus on saving the senate first, with a change at the top of the ticket. I think Silver agrees with this.
Silver has already said openly that the Dems should dump Biden on his Substack, and that he will vote third party if they don't. Not sure if that means RFK Jr., or what. Stein and West are both way left of where he has claimed to be, politically.
His individual vote/opinion on what he wants to happen I don't care about (it's been obvious for many years he is a partisan Democrat/leftist at heart). I value somewhat his analysis of the polling data separate from his personal commentary, I guess I am trying to say.

The democrats have to do something to try to flip the table inarguably, imho:

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Barnyard96
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In reply to nortex97 • 3:19p, 7/5/24
AG
Wow. Legit?
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nortex97
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 3:22p, 7/5/24
AG
It's a gambling market, basically, not a poll aggregate etc. But, it's what the market really is right now, imho.
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LMCane
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4:37p, 7/5/24
HUUUUUGE
LFG... this would be a GOP senate majority after so many disasters.

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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 4:39p, 7/5/24
nortex97 said:
It's a gambling market, basically, not a poll aggregate etc. But, it's what the market really is right now, imho.
would GLADLY take a GOP Senate with Trump in White House and a slight dem House majority.

compared to how things looked 5 months ago.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 4:57a, 7/6/24
AG
Yeah Remington released a slew of polls yesterday and I think Trump's dominance there will help take down Tester finally: all good news, really.

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AggieUSMC
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7:15a, 7/6/24
AG
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.
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Goodnight Irene
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In reply to AggieUSMC • 7:35a, 7/6/24
AG
AggieUSMC said:
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.


You could've chosen a game the Ags won like A&M vs Northern Iowa
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AggieUSMC
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In reply to Goodnight Irene • 8:04a, 7/6/24
AG
Goodnight Irene said:
AggieUSMC said:
The only thing Biden has going for him is that the election is still 4 months away. that's plenty of time for the political winds to shift. think Aggies vs UCLA in 2017. no lead is safe.


You could've chosen a game the Ags won like A&M vs Northern Iowa
No, an Aggie loss is a better analogy. The good guys are ahead right now but that can easily change considering how much time is left on the clock.
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Rapier108
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7:30p, 7/6/24

"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Rapier108 • 7:48p, 7/6/24
AG
Yeah right. Lol
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rockdoc • 7:53p, 7/6/24
AG
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.


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Rockdoc
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7:57p, 7/6/24
AG
If that's what you want to believe that's fine. My opinion is that Biden is crashing. But he will get many millions of votes.
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Barnyard96
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In reply to Rockdoc • 8:00p, 7/6/24
AG
I dont think Trump +7 in Penn illustrates Biden closing a gap
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Rockdoc
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:03p, 7/6/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
I dont think Trump +7 in Penn illustrates Biden closing a gap

Yeah when it comes to polls I'm not sure what I believe.
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nortex97
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In reply to Rapier108 • 8:21p, 7/6/24
AG
Do you think that's true? Why would you believe this, if so?
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Barnyard96 • 8:50p, 7/6/24
AG
Barnyard96 said:
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.




In no universe would Biden be up 5 in Michigan and down 7 in Pennsylvania. And Trump only up 3 in NC?

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Rapier108
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In reply to nortex97 • 9:42p, 7/6/24
nortex97 said:
Do you think that's true? Why would you believe this, if so?
As I've said many times, I don't put much faith in polls in general because I know how they can be so easily manipulated. It is why when I post a poll, I don't usually include a comment. I'll leave it to the people who love polls to get into the poll's weeds.
"If you will not fight for right when you can easily win without blood shed; if you will not fight when your victory is sure and not too costly; you may come to the moment when you will have to fight with all the odds against you and only a precarious chance of survival. There may even be a worse case. You may have to fight when there is no hope of victory, because it is better to perish than to live as slaves." - Sir Winston Churchill
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Kentucky Jeff
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In reply to Captn_Ag05 • 9:53p, 7/6/24
Captn_Ag05 said:
Barnyard96 said:
Here's the poll. No Kennedy.




In no universe would Biden be up 5 in Michigan and down 7 in Pennsylvania. And Trump only up 3 in NC?



Agree. Those numbers are skewed. Assuming a two way race, I'm thinking Michigan is more like 50/50, Pennsylvania at 52/48 Trump, North Carolina 54/46 Trump. North Carolina shouldn't even be in play.
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Capstone
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10:03p, 7/6/24
AG
Can someone give me the Reader's Digest version on the complete flip of AZ and NV from 2020 (7 pts to R)?
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