Muh Polls

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LMCane
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12:08p, 7/9/24
Please be true!!

Last update: 12:45 p.m, Tuesday, July 9:

It's never a good idea to place too much emphasis on any one poll.

But this bipartisan poll of Wisconsin for the AARP is potentially an exception, as it is probably the highest-quality poll in a swing state since the debate.

It's a bad one for Biden, showing him down 6 points.

Wisconsin had been one of Biden's better-polling states, but his chances of winning the must-win Badger State have fallen to 39 percent with the new poll added. The drip-drip-drip of polls like these could further erode Biden's standing in our forecast.

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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 12:09p, 7/9/24
great find!

that along with the one I just posted a minute ago from AARP are showing a +5/6 point lead for Trump in Wisconsin in two good polls.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 12:17p, 7/9/24
AG
Agreed. I think it's the same poll we are talking about. AARP hired fabrizio etc.
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will25u
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12:18p, 7/9/24
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aezmvp
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12:19p, 7/9/24
Need the bad news to slow down for a couple weeks. Let Biden get the nomination.
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will25u
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12:24p, 7/9/24
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to will25u • 12:40p, 7/9/24
W. Virginia and Montana will go GOP. Maryland is a toss-up with Hogan.

I think the Senate goes 52-48 GOP control in 2024
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will25u
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5:14p, 7/9/24
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Tea Party
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In reply to LMCane • 5:25p, 7/9/24
LMCane said:
what I don't understand is in this thread the smart guys are going back and looking at polls from 2020 and guess what:

219 of 222 polls had Biden beating Trump

yet for some reason, in a very close election, the ONLY possible explanation was "cheating"

so the same people who for four years have claimed 219 out of 222 polls were all wrong,

are now saying it's in the bag for Trump because the polls show him ahead.
Just because polls then said one person was going to take office doesnt mean there wasnt cheating.
Just because polls now say a different person is going to take office, doesnt mean there still wont be cheating.

Not everyone plays party politics like you are implying, and it's naive to dismiss those that say our elections are not on the up and up.
Learn about the Texas Nationalist Movement
https://tnm.me
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nortex97
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In reply to aggiehawg • 5:37p, 7/9/24
AG
Cornyn is likely, unfortunately.

Interesting shifts;

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Science Denier
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In reply to nortex97 • 6:12p, 7/9/24
AG
nortex97 said:
Cornyn is likely, unfortunately.

Interesting shifts;



Pollsters got their marching orders. Biden is not dropping out. Fake a momentum shift to Biden. I mean, Biden has done nothing since the debate except **** up more.

But he will have to debate again.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:17p, 7/9/24
AG
You need to read that post again. Every shift was a shift to Trump.
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Science Denier
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 6:19p, 7/9/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
You need to read that post again. Every shift was a shift to Trump.


So this guy had every state either a toss up or likely D? Because that's what the Tweer shows.
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Irish 2.0
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:20p, 7/9/24
Yes. The shifts went to Trumps favor.
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Captn_Ag05
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:20p, 7/9/24
AG
they changed their Arizona prediction as a toss up to a Lean R. So made it more favorable to trump. Same with all the other states.
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Drahknor03
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In reply to Science Denier • 6:23p, 7/9/24
AG
That's the Cook political report. They put out a projection of all 50 states each election cycle. Each state is rated Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss-up based on the party.

Today they changed the projections for six states. Each state they changed moved in Trump's direction.

They are pretty good, but notoriously risk adverse. So a six state swing in one direction is a massive shift.
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Science Denier
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In reply to Drahknor03 • 6:26p, 7/9/24
AG
Drahknor03 said:
That's the Cook political report. They put out a projection of all 50 states each election cycle. Each state is rated Safe, Likely, Lean, or Toss-up based on the party.

Today they changed the projections for six states. Each state they changed moved in Trump's direction.

They are pretty good, but notoriously risk adverse. So a six state swing in one direction is a massive shift.


Do this guy had all swing states likely D? After the debate?

Sorry, that's pretty good.

Y'all are correct. I didn't read anything but what was in the tweet.
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dreyOO
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In reply to will25u • 9:18p, 7/9/24
will25u said:

But there was some rich idiot lib talking about how deep the D bench is. lol. All trash bags.
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will25u
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7:10a, 7/10/24
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nortex97
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In reply to will25u • 7:27a, 7/10/24
AG
Love it. All of these are also great to read (usual 'if true' caveats):



The last two in particular shock me. Indian turnout in Glacier/Blaine counties will be key to Tester surviving or not, imho, and that is almost impossible for the pollsters to really gage accurately, given it's swings over the past 6 years...
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BadMoonRisin
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:37a, 7/10/24
AG
I ran a half marathon 2 years ago up in Blackfeet territory on the edge of Glacier National Park. The entire thing was run by natives. They were wonderful people and very gracious hosts.
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LMCane
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In reply to Irish 2.0 • 7:48a, 7/10/24
Irish 2.0 said:
W. Virginia and Montana will go GOP. Maryland is a toss-up with Hogan.

I think the Senate goes 52-48 GOP control in 2024
I am here in Maryland and have sent donations to Hogan- his campaign sent me a text that his internal polling shows it tied right now.
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:50a, 7/10/24
nortex97 said:
Cornyn is likely, unfortunately.

Interesting shifts;

I clicked on it but it doesn't state is this President or Senate?
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LMCane
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In reply to Tea Party • 7:53a, 7/10/24
I understand the point, and I agree with you.

I do believe that the democrats cheated in 2020, but they cheat IN EVERY ELECTION since 1800.

that is my point, either you 1) beat them by more than they can cover for the cheating,

or 2) find a candidate who can effectively counter the cheating.

in nearly 250 years, somehow non-democrats were able to get elected.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 7:53a, 7/10/24
AG
President.
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LMCane
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In reply to nortex97 • 7:55a, 7/10/24
I just dont' see McCormick being able to win in PA

He is a nice buy but literally has 100 people "liking" his twitter posts. he has zero social media presence and is not a charismatic guy.
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nortex97
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In reply to LMCane • 8:11a, 7/10/24
AG
The question is how bad things get for team blue. If they have to pour re$ources into…places like NY, it could happen in PA.
Quote:
Two private polls conducted in a swing New York House district and reviewed by POLITICO one in September and another in March found former President Donald Trump leading Biden there by 1 point, a virtual tie. And public polls over the last four months found Biden's lead had winnowed to just 8 points across New York an unusually narrow gap in a state where Democrats outnumber Republicans 2 to 1.

"We're still acting like this is a one-party state, which for pretty much 20, 25 years it has been," Democratic Manhattan Borough President Mark Levine said. "I truly believe we're a battleground state now."
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Tramp96
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8:18a, 7/10/24
Just the thought that Minnesota and New York could even be anything less than the bluest of blue blows my mind.

Minnesota hasn't voted for the Republican Presidential candidate since 1972. 52 years of solid blue.
New York hasn't voted red since 1984. 40 years.

Don't get me wrong...I think they still both go blue. But just the idea that they either state could ever be even in the "lean" category is astonishing.
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LMCane
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8:35a, 7/10/24
I told you folks that the Jews were moving against Biden due to the Hamas pogroms:

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DonHenley
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8:52a, 7/10/24
AG
Can't see NY or MN ever going red. If things keep going the way they are Trump should invest in NH and VA. He has a legit shot at winning those. I think WI and MI are still toss ups. Looking good in NC, PA, GA, NV, and AZ.
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ts5641
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In reply to DonHenley • 8:59a, 7/10/24
DonHenley said:
Can't see NY or MN ever going red. If things keep going the way they are Trump should invest in NH and VA. He has a legit shot at winning those. I think WI and MI are still toss ups. Looking good in NC, PA, GA, NV, and AZ.
NY will never happen. MN is one of those we always fall for it they might go red. Too many weirdo lefty's and African immigrants.
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TyHolden
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In reply to Tramp96 • 9:05a, 7/10/24
AG
Tramp96 said:
Just the thought that Minnesota and New York could even be anything less than the bluest of blue blows my mind.

Minnesota hasn't voted for the Republican Presidential candidate since 1972. 52 years of solid blue.
New York hasn't voted red since 1984. 40 years.

Don't get me wrong...I think they still both go blue. But just the idea that they either state could ever be even in the "lean" category is astonishing.

Minnesota screwed up the1984 Reagan sweep... .02 percent…
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LMCane
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9:15a, 7/10/24
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LMCane
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In reply to Tramp96 • 9:16a, 7/10/24
Tramp96 said:
Just the thought that Minnesota and New York could even be anything less than the bluest of blue blows my mind.

Minnesota hasn't voted for the Republican Presidential candidate since 1972. 52 years of solid blue.
New York hasn't voted red since 1984. 40 years.

Don't get me wrong...I think they still both go blue. But just the idea that they either state could ever be even in the "lean" category is astonishing.
the more important point is that the closer Trump can make it, the more the GOP will win down ballot in the House and State local elections
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LMCane
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9:26a, 7/10/24
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