idk who co/efficient is but their poll of likely voters is 41-40 Trump
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
https://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-outQuote:
How bad do you have to screw up to lose a debate by 34 points to Donald Trump in a country as divided as this one?
That is hilarious and right on the moneyagsalaska said:
Not a poll but a funny comment from Nate Silver this afternoon. Excellent pointhttps://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-outQuote:
How bad do you have to screw up to lose a debate by 34 points to Donald Trump in a country as divided as this one?
2023NCAggies said:That is hilarious and right on the moneyagsalaska said:
Not a poll but a funny comment from Nate Silver this afternoon. Excellent pointhttps://www.natesilver.net/p/joe-biden-should-drop-outQuote:
How bad do you have to screw up to lose a debate by 34 points to Donald Trump in a country as divided as this one?
With that recent New Jersey poll, how bad is it when Virginia, Maine, Minnesota, New York, Nevada, New Jersey, New Hampshire are all leaning in to the toss up category or leaning Trump
New York and New Jersey are a stretch for now, but the others are winnable
2023NCAggies said:
Trump up 1 in NEW JERSEY!?!
idk who co/efficient is but their poll of likely voters is 41-40 Trump
https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/
#New General Election Poll - New Jersey
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 28, 2024
๐ด Trump 41% (+1)
๐ต Biden 40%
Senate
๐ต Kim 39% (+6)
๐ด Bashow
Co efficient #B- - 810 LV - 6/27
#New General Election Poll
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) June 28, 2024
๐ด Trump 50% (+8)
๐ต Biden 42%
Who won the debate
๐ด Trump 49%
๐ต Biden 17%
Leger - 1001 A - 6/28
9PT SWING (-2 to +7) TO TRUMP post Biden Debate Debacle!
— Andrew Bostom, MD, MS (@andrewbostom) June 29, 2024
Pre-debate (n=878 LV, June 22-24)
๐ฆ Biden: 43%
๐ฅ Trump: 41%
๐ช Other: 11%
โฌ Undecided: 4%
โโ
POST-DEBATE (n=874 LV, June 27-28)
๐ฅ Trump: 45%
๐ฆ Biden: 38%
๐ช Other: 8%
โฌ Undecided: 8%
โโhttps://t.co/duPXnJ3OJk
New poll from AtlasIntel, n = 1,634 RV sample, has Trump leading Biden by +5.2 on a full-ballot (post-debate data is included).
— evolian (@gen0m1cs) June 29, 2024
Poll is 538 verified, their last poll was Trump +2 on a full-ballot back in February. AtlasIntel was also one of the most accurate polls in 2020. pic.twitter.com/jxVyXyf2dn
National @Leger360/@nypost Post-Debate Poll (Shift since 6/24):
— Political Polls (@Politics_Polls) June 30, 2024
Trump 45% (+4)
Biden 38% (-5)
841 LV, 6/27-28 https://t.co/sQjTUymyKe
Nate Silver's model gives Trump more than 68% to win the election against Biden. For the first time, Silver also predicts that Trump will win the popular vote by a wide margin. pic.twitter.com/ZXBHEgETvI
— Raylan Givens (@JewishWarrior13) June 30, 2024
This is a sitting Member of Congress campaigning that her interests:
— Ted Cruz (@tedcruz) July 1, 2024
โare NOT the interests of Minnesotaโ and
โNOT the interests of the American people.โ
Stunning. And her supporters cheer. https://t.co/Qf85yt3nhn
Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.GenericAggie said:
New Mexico? You're kidding, right?
#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - ๐ด Internal
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024
๐ต Biden 49% (+2)
๐ด Trump 47%
Senate
๐ต Heinrich 45% (+3)
๐ด Domenici 42%
Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24
How on earth could Biden still have a lead? Did the entire state skipi the debate? And, did they skip CNN's take on the debate?nortex97 said:Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.GenericAggie said:
New Mexico? You're kidding, right?#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - ๐ด Internal
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024
๐ต Biden 49% (+2)
๐ด Trump 47%
Senate
๐ต Heinrich 45% (+3)
๐ด Domenici 42%
Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24
I'd sayโฆit's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.
Most people are mostly motivated to vote against the other side, not for their own side. and most of what's left is simply party loyalty. And fair or not, the media, academia, pop culture, etc. have made Trump the most feared and hated man in America at this point. This forum's constant mocking of "support for Biden" is completely missing the point. Most on the other side would probably openly say they'd vote for a sack of cement over Trump, and that's what they've got. I see "Never, ever, vote for a Democrat" on this site all the time, so why should it be expected that the other side wouldn't feel the opposite way? Hell, I'd vote "for" a broken toaster before I voted for Obama or Biden or Hillary.Science Denier said:How on earth could Biden still have a lead? Did the entire state skipi the debate? And, did they skip CNN's take on the debate?nortex97 said:Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.GenericAggie said:
New Mexico? You're kidding, right?#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - ๐ด Internal
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024
๐ต Biden 49% (+2)
๐ด Trump 47%
Senate
๐ต Heinrich 45% (+3)
๐ด Domenici 42%
Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24
I'd sayโฆit's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.
I know dead people didn't listen, so that Dem vote is still locked. But that can't be over 50% of their population.
It is in play. If the GOP can gain senate seats in Michigan and New Mexico, that would take 2 firm dem seats.nortex97 said:Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.GenericAggie said:
New Mexico? You're kidding, right?#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - ๐ด Internal
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024
๐ต Biden 49% (+2)
๐ด Trump 47%
Senate
๐ต Heinrich 45% (+3)
๐ด Domenici 42%
Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24
I'd sayโฆit's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.
They lose either way. Right now I believe they are trying to figure out which will have least amount of damage down ballot.Barnyard96 said:
What happens when Kamala is the candidate? Any data?
I am now following Silver on Twitter and he takes a LOT of flak from the leftists for claiming Biden will lose.agsalaska said:Thats a big change. Two weeks ago he was like 51-49 Biden.2023NCAggies said:
https://www.foxnews.com/media/polling-guru-gives-donald-trump-66-chance-winning-presidential-election
Silver thinks it will be Trump
I think what we are seeing is as we get closer to November the modeling starts relying more on current polling and less on historical data. I suspect if the polling doesn't change much his modeling will show Trump even more likely.
I can't remember exactly where Silver was in 2016, maybe 75-25 Clinton. He and Cook both knew that Trump had a real if narrow shot and even spelled out where. Funny thing is he got roasted for saying it by the Dems before the election and the Republicans for some stupid reason after.
so Biden was such an awesome President = his very first decision in selecting Kamala was horrendousaezmvp said:
Biden campaign thinks it a 40-48 state wipeout with Harris at the top of the ticket. One of the many reasons they refuse to bow out.
2023NCAggies said:They lose either way. Right now I believe they are trying to figure out which will have least amount of damage down ballot.Barnyard96 said:
What happens when Kamala is the candidate? Any data?
And I have no idea which one would be worse. I guess I would say the best pick is Harris to solidify the vote.
That debate lost them Ohio and Montana for sure. So right now their best outcome is 52-48 in the senate.
And between Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, New Mexico, New Jersey, Maryland. At least ONE of those is likely to go R
nortex97 said:Update: NM has shifted another 5 toward Trump's direction, now Biden+2.GenericAggie said:
New Mexico? You're kidding, right?#New General Election Poll - New Mexico - ๐ด Internal
— Political Polls (@PpollingNumbers) July 1, 2024
๐ต Biden 49% (+2)
๐ด Trump 47%
Senate
๐ต Heinrich 45% (+3)
๐ด Domenici 42%
Nell 4 Senate internal - 600 LV - 6/24
I'd sayโฆit's in play. Biden won it by 11 in 2020, only caveat is that this is apparently a GOP sponsored/paid poll.
I actually agree with this. He made his point that the polls were actuallyโฆcorrect in both 2016 and 2020 about the probability of the outcomes, especially in the battleground states (I loosely recall he said there was a 30 percent chance or so of a Trump win, the night before in 2016).agsalaska said:
Silver is a liberal but he is not a partisan nor controlled media. One of the reasons he is independent now.
He is a must follow.
Barnyard96 said:
Cruz posted he thinks its gonna be Michelle.
New, post-debate @SaintAnselmPoll shows former President Donald Trump holding a narrow lead over President Joe Biden in New Hampshire, just within the margin of error #NHPolitics #FITN #WMUR pic.twitter.com/AeIZ3OWWCp
— Adam Sexton (@AdamSextonWMUR) July 1, 2024
๐ MICHIGAN GE: EPIC-MRA
— InteractivePolls (@IAPolls2022) June 30, 2024
๐ฅ Trump: 49% (+4)
๐ฆ Biden: 45%
---
๐ฅ Trump: 42% (+4)
๐ฆ Biden: 38%
๐จ RFK Jr: 10%
๐ฉ Stein: 2%
๐จ West: 2%
538: #92 (2.0/3.0) | 600 LV | 6/21-26https://t.co/hHu3hBexPf pic.twitter.com/SCcpIFyyIs
Nonsense.sam callahan said:
Saying there is a 30% chance of one of the options of a non repeatable binary outcome is a huge hedge, nothing more.
She is running against the same person (Don Samuels, a Jamaican immigrant) who came within less than 2500 votes of beating her last time and appears to have more of a campaign infrastructure this go round.nortex97 said:
Is Ilhan going to somehow lose her primary, or is literally campaigning against America/Minnesota popular enough to carry her?
7/1 model update.
— Nate Silver (@NateSilver538) July 1, 2024
Debate beginning to take a real bite out of Biden. pic.twitter.com/lSESmUd4JZ